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Recliner[_4_] · June 22nd 20, 04:12 PM posted to uk.transport.london

tim... wrote:

"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message , at 09:13:34 on Mon, 22 Jun 2020,
remarked:
On Sat, 20 Jun 2020 06:49:03 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that
rate.

If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.

On the flip side , the coronavirus death list also includes people who
died
WITH the virus, not just those of died OF the virus. Other countries only
measure the latter.

How do they know that the thing the person died of, wasn't a consequence
of the virus?

Well they don't, and that's "they" generally, both them and us

the point is the UK are more "honest" about this than some (not all) other
countries.

The UK puts primary cause = pneumonia, secondary cause = COVID on the forms,
thus it counts as a COVID death

some countries put cause = pneumonia and it doesn't count as a COVID death
even if the patient has tested positive

That's all separate from the problem of people dying with COVID, completely
undiagnosed

and people dying of something else completely because they couldn't get the
necessary hospital treatment as all the beds are full

That's why it's best to use the excess deaths estimate when doing
comparisons. Of course, it may not be possible with countries that don't
keep the daily death statistics.