John Rowland wrote:


Surely Boris has only suggested Bendies will be got rid of when Borismaster
is available, not before.



Let's ask him, shall we? From Mayor's Question Time 16/07/2008:

Q: Given the considerable challenge of replacing 388 “bendy” buses with
540 new Routemaster Mark 2 buses before 2012, will you prioritise
withdrawing ‘bendies’ from routes involving narrow roads and sharp
turns? Can you itemise your objections to operating articulated buses on
long straight routes where there is high demand, such as the Old Kent
Road, the Mile End Road, and Uxbridge Road?

A: You seem to have misunderstood my commitment- articulated buses will
not be directly replaced with 21st Century Routemasters as the process
of phasing them out will not necessarily be coterminous with the
delivery of a new Routemaster. TfL is planning to replace articulated
buses with standard double deckers in line with my manifesto commitment
on a route-by-route basis as their contracts come to an end. This is the
most cost effective approach to replacing this vehicle type and avoids
amending existing contracts with the various operators, which would be a
costly exercise. It also ensures that appropriate options for
double-deck services can be designed and consulted on before
implementation, in the usual way.
This strategy will be revisited when the new design of bus becomes
available.

http://mqt.london.gov.uk/mqt/public/...on.do?id=22580

[this is of course before people pointed out that the 507 and 521 can't
be replaced by double deckers, so it's best seen as the earliest
post-election expression of a muddled policy]

My suggeted dateline says that the earliest possible bendy-to-RM
conversion would be the 207, but that's due in April 2012, bang in the
middle of the election campaign. I recall Paul saying earlier that
major changes aren't made during the campaign in case the incumbent
gains a political advantage by scheduling delivery of projects as part
of his re-election campaign. In any case, the 207 is a special case,
being the only bendy route entirely outside the central London area.
I'm not sure Boris put the whole thing in train for the benefit of the
inhabitants of Shepherd's Bush and Southall, but there you go, should
have looked into it more.

Given that, it's unlikely *any* routes will go from bendies to RMs in
Boris's first term, in fact it's far from clear that enough will be
available for more than a token service somewhere in the first months of
2012 - of course it might be that they create an entirely new route for
them. There'll be a substantial number of bendies running at the time
of the election, almost certainly more than the number of Routemasters
unless something amazing happens to their delivery schedule, like coming
into full production in the second half of 2011.

On which note, I notice Wrightbus are laying off staff. Doesn't sound
like the bus industry is gearing up to build the thing, frankly.
Survival mode seems likely - Boris might be best advised to put money*
into a larger hybrid order to keep people employed rather than twiddling
for three years waiting for his vanity project.

Tom

* the £3.5m extra premium paid for debendifying the first three bendy
routes, for instance.