Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

On 29/04/2016 10:57, Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:43:18 on Fri, 29 Apr
2016, Someone Somewhere remarked:
Latest annual station usage stats:

T123 7.49m
T5 3.90m
T4 2.35m

Is that it? Any ideas about the Hex and Connect?

If only there was a way to find things like that out. Hold on, I'll see
if Tim Berners Lee has any ideas.

Page was, and continues to be, broken right now!

Given the number of passengers through Heathrow each year, let alone
staff, those numbers seem terribly low.

HEx is 5.84m a year and Connect a lowly 0.4m .

There is expected to be a sizeable shift from the Piccadilly Line to
Crossrail when it opens.

The airport had 73m passengers in 2014, but 26m were transfers, so 47m
landside. T5 is by far the busiest, with twice as many as the next
busiest (T3).

Overall, 40% are reported to use public transport, which sounds about
right - adding up the figures above actually gives 42%, but there's also
bus and coaches, offset from that some of the passengers are staff (but
with unsocial hours, over 17,500 free staff car parking spaces on site
and a vigorous car-sharing policy, their use of public transport is
naturally going to be low).

Plus I guess some number of people seeing off or collecting people which
probably makes up the difference.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:43:18 on Fri, 29 Apr
2016, Someone Somewhere remarked:
Latest annual station usage stats:

T123 7.49m
T5 3.90m
T4 2.35m

Is that it? Any ideas about the Hex and Connect?

If only there was a way to find things like that out. Hold on, I'll see
if Tim Berners Lee has any ideas.

Given the number of passengers through Heathrow each year, let alone
staff, those numbers seem terribly low.

HEx is 5.84m a year and Connect a lowly 0.4m .

There is expected to be a sizeable shift from the Piccadilly Line to
Crossrail when it opens.

Yes, that sounds likely, though it may be affected by the relative fare
levels (I've, if Crossrail is a lot more expensive than the Tube).


The airport had 73m passengers in 2014, but 26m were transfers, so 47m
landside. T5 is by far the busiest, with twice as many as the next
busiest (T3).

T2 is probably the second busiest now. T4 is now very quiet as some
airlines have moved from it to T2.


Overall, 40% are reported to use public transport, which sounds about
right - adding up the figures above actually gives 42%, but there's also
bus and coaches, offset from that some of the passengers are staff (but
with unsocial hours, over 17,500 free staff car parking spaces on site
and a vigorous car-sharing policy, their use of public transport is
naturally going to be low).

Many staff may also use Hatton Cross, whereas I assume few passengers do.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

In article , (Someone
Somewhere) wrote:

On 29/04/2016 10:57, Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:43:18 on Fri, 29 Apr
2016, Someone Somewhere remarked:
Latest annual station usage stats:

T123 7.49m
T5 3.90m
T4 2.35m

Is that it? Any ideas about the Hex and Connect?

If only there was a way to find things like that out. Hold on, I'll see
if Tim Berners Lee has any ideas.

Page was, and continues to be, broken right now!

Given the number of passengers through Heathrow each year, let alone
staff, those numbers seem terribly low.

HEx is 5.84m a year and Connect a lowly 0.4m .

There is expected to be a sizeable shift from the Piccadilly Line to
Crossrail when it opens.

The airport had 73m passengers in 2014, but 26m were transfers, so 47m
landside. T5 is by far the busiest, with twice as many as the next
busiest (T3).

Overall, 40% are reported to use public transport, which sounds about
right - adding up the figures above actually gives 42%, but there's also
bus and coaches, offset from that some of the passengers are staff (but
with unsocial hours, over 17,500 free staff car parking spaces on site
and a vigorous car-sharing policy, their use of public transport is
naturally going to be low).

Plus I guess some number of people seeing off or collecting people
which probably makes up the difference.

This discussion ignores the journeys to and fro of the people who work
there, surely? They are supposed to be a large part of the Connect target
market.

--
Colin Rosenstiel

Heathrow runway will create £16bn
 

On Fri, 29 Apr 2016 14:55:21 -0000 (UTC)
Recliner wrote:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:43:18 on Fri, 29 Apr
2016, Someone Somewhere remarked:
Latest annual station usage stats:

T123 7.49m
T5 3.90m
T4 2.35m

Is that it? Any ideas about the Hex and Connect?

If only there was a way to find things like that out. Hold on, I'll see
if Tim Berners Lee has any ideas.

Given the number of passengers through Heathrow each year, let alone
staff, those numbers seem terribly low.

HEx is 5.84m a year and Connect a lowly 0.4m .

There is expected to be a sizeable shift from the Piccadilly Line to
Crossrail when it opens.

Yes, that sounds likely, though it may be affected by the relative fare
levels (I've, if Crossrail is a lot more expensive than the Tube).

One would hope it will simply be zone based and BAA won't throw their toys
out the pram and demand a surcharge for using their track. Perhaps its time
for a compulsory purchase of the permanent way.

--
Spud

Heathrow runway will create £16bn
 

wrote:
On Fri, 29 Apr 2016 14:55:21 -0000 (UTC)
Recliner wrote:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:43:18 on Fri, 29 Apr
2016, Someone Somewhere remarked:
Latest annual station usage stats:

T123 7.49m
T5 3.90m
T4 2.35m

Is that it? Any ideas about the Hex and Connect?

If only there was a way to find things like that out. Hold on, I'll see
if Tim Berners Lee has any ideas.

Given the number of passengers through Heathrow each year, let alone
staff, those numbers seem terribly low.

HEx is 5.84m a year and Connect a lowly 0.4m .

There is expected to be a sizeable shift from the Piccadilly Line to
Crossrail when it opens.

Yes, that sounds likely, though it may be affected by the relative fare
levels (I've, if Crossrail is a lot more expensive than the Tube).

One would hope it will simply be zone based and BAA won't throw their toys
out the pram and demand a surcharge for using their track. Perhaps its time
for a compulsory purchase of the permanent way.

As long as there's a separate, premium-priced HEx service, I can't see HAL
cooperating in allowing pure zonal fares on the Lizzy Line, just as HCon
doesn't have them.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

On 29/04/2016 16:12, wrote:
In article , (Someone
Somewhere) wrote:

On 29/04/2016 10:57, Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:43:18 on Fri, 29 Apr
2016, Someone Somewhere remarked:
snip
Given the number of passengers through Heathrow each year, let alone
staff, those numbers seem terribly low.

snip
offset from that some of the passengers are staff (but
with unsocial hours, over 17,500 free staff car parking spaces on site
and a vigorous car-sharing policy, their use of public transport is
naturally going to be low).

snip

This discussion ignores the journeys to and fro of the people who work
there, surely? They are supposed to be a large part of the Connect target
market.

In what way "ignores"? I said "let alone staff"? and Roland mentioned
that some are staff and some good reasons why there are not more staff.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

In message
-sept
ember.org, Recliner wrote:
Looking at the evening peak, there's 23 trains leaving Gloucester Road
between 17:00 and 18:00, split 11 to Heathrow (6:5 between the T4 and
T5) and 12 towards Rayners Lane (7 to Uxbridge). There's 23 between
18:00 and 19:00, now split 13:10 (still 7 to Uxbridge). That's not "much
more intense".

Those figures don't sound right.

I've been using the Piccadilly line Rayner's Lane branch since well before
the Heathrow extensions opened, and the service used to be split evenly
between the two western branches. Now, I sometimes have to wait for three
or even four Heathrow trains to pass before a Rayner's Lane or Uxbridge
train shows up. I find it really hard to believe there's any hour in the
day when more trains go to Rayner's Lane/Uxbridge than to Heathrow. My
observation is that at least 60% go to Heathrow.

Those figures were taken straight from the TfL on-line timetable pages.

Yes, *but* that wasn't the basis they were ordered on.
True, but in effect some of the S stock trains have replaced Piccadilly
trains transferred from the Uxbridge services to Heathrow.

I don't know if that is true, because I don't have service data for the
various branches over time.

You'd have to show that (a) the Uxbridge branch gets a better peak
service now than in the past (peak since that's when most trains are
used) and (b) that requires more trains than before rather than being
done through better turnaround.

Somebody (not me) who keeps old issues of Underground News could look
for old working timetable information.

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Mobile: +44 7973 377646 | Web: http://www.davros.org
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

Clive D. W. Feather wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, Recliner wrote:
Looking at the evening peak, there's 23 trains leaving Gloucester Road
between 17:00 and 18:00, split 11 to Heathrow (6:5 between the T4 and
T5) and 12 towards Rayners Lane (7 to Uxbridge). There's 23 between
18:00 and 19:00, now split 13:10 (still 7 to Uxbridge). That's not "much
more intense".

Those figures don't sound right.

I've been using the Piccadilly line Rayner's Lane branch since well before
the Heathrow extensions opened, and the service used to be split evenly
between the two western branches. Now, I sometimes have to wait for three
or even four Heathrow trains to pass before a Rayner's Lane or Uxbridge
train shows up. I find it really hard to believe there's any hour in the
day when more trains go to Rayner's Lane/Uxbridge than to Heathrow. My
observation is that at least 60% go to Heathrow.

Those figures were taken straight from the TfL on-line timetable pages.

Strange, my experience is very different. Is that hour atypical? It
certainly seems that way to me, a regular user of the line.


Yes, *but* that wasn't the basis they were ordered on.

True, but in effect some of the S stock trains have replaced Piccadilly
trains transferred from the Uxbridge services to Heathrow.

I don't know if that is true, because I don't have service data for the
various branches over time.

You'd have to show that (a) the Uxbridge branch gets a better peak
service now than in the past (peak since that's when most trains are
used) and (b) that requires more trains than before rather than being
done through better turnaround.

It's my very strong anecdotal memory, but not something I can prove.

But it's not necessarily the case that the Uxbridge branch gets a better
service overall (though I think it probably does), just that a much higher
proportion of the trains are now Met rather than Picc. There is a frequent
Met service at Uxbridge now, but a very infrequent Picc service. And I
don't think there are any Picc reversers between Rayner's Lane and Uxbridge
(eg, at Ruislip or Ickenham) any more; the reversers now no longer get
beyond Rayner's Lane.


Somebody (not me) who keeps old issues of Underground News could look
for old working timetable information.

I don't keep mine either.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

In article , (Someone
Somewhere) wrote:

On 29/04/2016 16:12, wrote:
In article , (Someone
Somewhere) wrote:

On 29/04/2016 10:57, Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:43:18 on Fri, 29 Apr
2016, Someone Somewhere remarked:
snip
Given the number of passengers through Heathrow each year, let alone
staff, those numbers seem terribly low.

snip
offset from that some of the passengers are staff (but
with unsocial hours, over 17,500 free staff car parking spaces on site
and a vigorous car-sharing policy, their use of public transport is
naturally going to be low).

snip

This discussion ignores the journeys to and fro of the people who work
there, surely? They are supposed to be a large part of the Connect
target market.

In what way "ignores"? I said "let alone staff"? and Roland
mentioned that some are staff and some good reasons why there are not
more staff.

The actual figures were all passengers.

--
Colin Rosenstiel

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:27:22 on Fri, 29 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Further into the future, if a third runway is built, there will be a new
western terminal, which may be adjacent to T5, and share its three
underground stations.

There are only two. Recent poorly-written articles about a "secret
station" are in fact about extra as-yet-unused platforms at the heavy
rail station.

When it eventually opens, who knows whether it will be shown as a new GWR
station or a pair of extra platforms at what is currently the HEx station?
The GWR station may be gated, the HEx station isn't, as it's free to the
central station.

It's inevitable that it'll be just one station because there will be
through trains (I don't think it's yet been decided if HEx or Crossrail
would run the 2tph Paddington-Heathrow-Reading trains; very unlikely to
be FGW or successor).

Through trains will presumably use the current HEx platform pair. The
currently unused platform pair could be used for a different service,
perhaps to Staines and beyond.

You can't have terminating and reversing trains using the same platform
as though trains because the through trains will be right behind a
terminating one and therefore considerably delayed.
--
Roland Perry

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

In message
-septe
mber.org, at 09:16:21 on Fri, 29 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
If you only want to look at phase 1, fair enough. The analysis will have to
be for the period from 1977 to 1986, when T4 opened. What was the rate of
return, positive or negative, on the capital investments in the extended
line, stations (two all-new and one re-built) and four extra trains, made
over those ten years?

I produced a figure of 7%, if you have a better one please explain your
workings.
--
Roland Perry

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:27:22 on Fri, 29 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Further into the future, if a third runway is built, there will be a new
western terminal, which may be adjacent to T5, and share its three
underground stations.

There are only two. Recent poorly-written articles about a "secret
station" are in fact about extra as-yet-unused platforms at the heavy
rail station.

When it eventually opens, who knows whether it will be shown as a new GWR
station or a pair of extra platforms at what is currently the HEx station?
The GWR station may be gated, the HEx station isn't, as it's free to the
central station.

It's inevitable that it'll be just one station because there will be
through trains (I don't think it's yet been decided if HEx or Crossrail
would run the 2tph Paddington-Heathrow-Reading trains; very unlikely to
be FGW or successor).

Through trains will presumably use the current HEx platform pair. The
currently unused platform pair could be used for a different service,
perhaps to Staines and beyond.

You can't have terminating and reversing trains using the same platform
as though trains because the through trains will be right behind a
terminating one and therefore considerably delayed.

Why not? There could be a reversing siding to the east of the platforms.
If you've never seen such a thing before, I suggest you look at Rayner's
Lane, where there's a reversing siding fir Piccadilly Lone trains just
behind the platforms used by Picc and Met line trains.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-septe
mber.org, at 09:16:21 on Fri, 29 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
If you only want to look at phase 1, fair enough. The analysis will have to
be for the period from 1977 to 1986, when T4 opened. What was the rate of
return, positive or negative, on the capital investments in the extended
line, stations (two all-new and one re-built) and four extra trains, made
over those ten years?

I produced a figure of 7%, if you have a better one please explain your
workings.

Wasn't that based on a surplus of £2 per journey (ie, today's fares and
traffic volumes) vs estimated construction costs in 1969 money? How about
a calculation in 1985 money of the then operating surplus vs construction
cost (incl four trains) of phase 1. Obviously the surplus should exceed the
interest rates of the day, perhaps 20%.

Also, strictly speaking, the incremental revenue should take into account
that some of the airport traffic would previously have used Hounslow West
station, and so wasn't new traffic at all. However, I've no idea how data
like that can be obtained after so many years.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

In message
-septe
mber.org, at 18:53:01 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:

You can't have terminating and reversing trains using the same platform
as though trains because the through trains will be right behind a
terminating one and therefore considerably delayed.

Why not? There could be a reversing siding to the east of the platforms.

West, more likely.

If you've never seen such a thing before, I suggest you look at Rayner's
Lane, where there's a reversing siding fir Piccadilly Lone trains just
behind the platforms used by Picc and Met line trains.

I've seen it many times, but such sidings don't work for the sort of
intensive services envisioned on CrossRail.
--
Roland Perry

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:00:51 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
I produced a figure of 7%, if you have a better one please explain your
workings.

Wasn't that based on a surplus of £2 per journey (ie, today's fares and
traffic volumes) vs estimated construction costs in 1969 money?

It was adjusted for inflation.
--
Roland Perry

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-septe
mber.org, at 18:53:01 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:

You can't have terminating and reversing trains using the same platform
as though trains because the through trains will be right behind a
terminating one and therefore considerably delayed.

Why not? There could be a reversing siding to the east of the platforms.

West, more likely.

Yes, my mistake.

If you've never seen such a thing before, I suggest you look at Rayner's
Lane, where there's a reversing siding fir Piccadilly Lone trains just
behind the platforms used by Picc and Met line trains.

I've seen it many times, but such sidings don't work for the sort of
intensive services envisioned on CrossRail.

Well, it works perfectly well for the far more intensive Met+Picc service.
The Crossrail reversers will be 2tph at T5, with 2tph through service. The
Rayner's Lane service is at least three times as frequent at peak times.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:00:51 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
I produced a figure of 7%, if you have a better one please explain your
workings.

Wasn't that based on a surplus of £2 per journey (ie, today's fares and
traffic volumes) vs estimated construction costs in 1969 money?

It was adjusted for inflation.

What about the cost of four more trains? And was it based on 1985 service
levels and fares, or today's? And did you allow for 1980's interest rates
on the capital costs?

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:22:11 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
If you've never seen such a thing before, I suggest you look at Rayner's
Lane, where there's a reversing siding fir Piccadilly Lone trains just
behind the platforms used by Picc and Met line trains.

I've seen it many times, but such sidings don't work for the sort of
intensive services envisioned on CrossRail.

Well, it works perfectly well for the far more intensive Met+Picc service.
The Crossrail reversers will be 2tph at T5, with 2tph through service. The
Rayner's Lane service is at least three times as frequent at peak times.

Don't they go all the way through to Uxbridge in the peaks?
--
Roland Perry

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:22:12 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:00:51 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
I produced a figure of 7%, if you have a better one please explain your
workings.

Wasn't that based on a surplus of £2 per journey (ie, today's fares and
traffic volumes) vs estimated construction costs in 1969 money?

It was adjusted for inflation.

What about the cost of four more trains?

I didn't include them, but at £1.8m for four of them, it's getting into
the noise level for the £26m total cost.

And was it based on 1985 service levels and fares, or today's?

Fares were adjusted for inflation, but used current passenger numbers.
Back when the line was built all the passengers were going to T123,
whereas with today's figures only about half of them are. Putting some
numbers on it, Heathrow was handling 30m passengers when T4 was being
built, and latest figures (2015) have T123 handling 32.6m [T4+T5 is
40.8m].

And did you allow for 1980's interest rates on the capital costs?

I don't think they literally borrowed the money to build it, but they
had the rate would have been the lowest government borrowing rate.

--
Roland Perry

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:22:11 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
If you've never seen such a thing before, I suggest you look at Rayner's
Lane, where there's a reversing siding fir Piccadilly Lone trains just
behind the platforms used by Picc and Met line trains.

I've seen it many times, but such sidings don't work for the sort of
intensive services envisioned on CrossRail.

Well, it works perfectly well for the far more intensive Met+Picc service.
The Crossrail reversers will be 2tph at T5, with 2tph through service. The
Rayner's Lane service is at least three times as frequent at peak times.

Don't they go all the way through to Uxbridge in the peaks?

No, only about half do. See my other post:
"I just looked at the Rayner's Lane departure board, and in the next 15
minutes there will be six through trains (five Met, one Picc) and two
terminators."

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:22:12 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 19:00:51 on Sun, 1 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
I produced a figure of 7%, if you have a better one please explain your
workings.

Wasn't that based on a surplus of £2 per journey (ie, today's fares and
traffic volumes) vs estimated construction costs in 1969 money?

It was adjusted for inflation.

What about the cost of four more trains?

I didn't include them, but at £1.8m for four of them, it's getting into
the noise level for the £26m total cost.

I think it best to use the figures Clove quoted:

"Rails Through The Clay, which is usually pretty accurate on things, states
that the original Heathrow extension was estimated at 15 million in 1970,
with the final figure given as 30.2 million in 1978. Hounslow West to
Hatton Cross civil engineering was 4 million. Tunnelling on to Heathrow
Central was 2.25 million; the station was another 1.2 million (those three
are all contract prices). The 1973 Tube Stock cost 40.25 million for 87.5
6-car trains. If I've calculated things correctly, the extension added 4
trains to the requirements for the line (15 minutes extra running time, 15
tph service at the time), so 1.84 million."

So the capital cost was £33m (or a bit more, inflating the train costs from
1975 to 1978) in 1978 money.



And was it based on 1985 service levels and fares, or today's?

Fares were adjusted for inflation, but used current passenger numbers.
Back when the line was built all the passengers were going to T123,
whereas with today's figures only about half of them are. Putting some
numbers on it, Heathrow was handling 30m passengers when T4 was being
built, and latest figures (2015) have T123 handling 32.6m [T4+T5 is
40.8m].

So you need to reduce the volumes by about 10%, for the average in the
1977-1986 period?

Also, I wonder how much of that traffic was simply displaced from Hounslow
West, which previously provided the less-satisfactory Heathrow link?


And did you allow for 1980's interest rates on the capital costs?

I don't think they literally borrowed the money to build it, but they
had the rate would have been the lowest government borrowing rate.

I agree that they didn't directly borrow the money for this particular
project, but it would have come from the public sector debt, one way or
another. That means we need to use the gilt yields of the day, about 14%:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...ent-bond-yield

Of course, had it been a PFI contract, as might well have been the case
today, the interest rate would have been significantly higher.

So the cost of servicing the debt (let alone repaying any of it) would have
been at least £4.6m pa. Only if the net incremental operating surplus
exceeded this would you start to see any financial return on the
investment. Obviously, with projects like this, there are other benefits
(less pollution and traffic, quicker and more predictable journeys, etc),
so even if it doesn't make a financial return, you might still do them, and
I think that's the case here and in many other urban public transport
schemes.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:27:47 on Mon, 2 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Don't they go all the way through to Uxbridge in the peaks?

No, only about half do. See my other post:
"I just looked at the Rayner's Lane departure board, and in the next 15
minutes there will be six through trains (five Met, one Picc) and two
terminators."

Are they running a weekday, or a Saturday, service?
--
Roland Perry

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:27:47 on Mon, 2 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Don't they go all the way through to Uxbridge in the peaks?

No, only about half do. See my other post:
"I just looked at the Rayner's Lane departure board, and in the next 15
minutes there will be six through trains (five Met, one Picc) and two
terminators."

Are they running a weekday, or a Saturday, service?

I'm not sure. But, either way, it proves it can be done, and happens
routinely.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

In message
-septem
ber.org, at 08:45:48 on Mon, 2 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:

And was it based on 1985 service levels and fares, or today's?

Fares were adjusted for inflation, but used current passenger numbers.
Back when the line was built all the passengers were going to T123,
whereas with today's figures only about half of them are. Putting some
numbers on it, Heathrow was handling 30m passengers when T4 was being
built, and latest figures (2015) have T123 handling 32.6m [T4+T5 is
40.8m].

So you need to reduce the volumes by about 10%, for the average in the
1977-1986 period?

I wasn't going to bother estimating second order quantities. For
example, I've ignored the passengers abstracted from the Piccadilly Line
by HEx.

Also, I wonder how much of that traffic was simply displaced from Hounslow
West, which previously provided the less-satisfactory Heathrow link?

That's accounted for by me using the very low figure of £2 extra fares
(at today's prices) being put in the kitty. The rest of the fare goes
towards funding Hounslow to Central London.

Obviously, with projects like this, there are other benefits
(less pollution and traffic, quicker and more predictable journeys,
etc), so even if it doesn't make a financial return, you might still do
them, and I think that's the case here and in many other urban public
transport schemes.

I was a bit surprised to discover that Atlanta's MARTA (bus and 'RER')
was only one-third funded by the fares basket.
--
Roland Perry

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 09:11:07 on Mon, 2 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Don't they go all the way through to Uxbridge in the peaks?

No, only about half do. See my other post:
"I just looked at the Rayner's Lane departure board, and in the next 15
minutes there will be six through trains (five Met, one Picc) and two
terminators."

Are they running a weekday, or a Saturday, service?

I'm not sure. But, either way, it proves it can be done, and happens
routinely.

One thing that's not been mentioned yet is that this Heathrow reversing
siding would have to be newly constructed. Why do that when there's
already a pair of platforms installed and ready for the through-running
trains?
--
Roland Perry

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-septem
ber.org, at 08:45:48 on Mon, 2 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:

And was it based on 1985 service levels and fares, or today's?

Fares were adjusted for inflation, but used current passenger numbers.
Back when the line was built all the passengers were going to T123,
whereas with today's figures only about half of them are. Putting some
numbers on it, Heathrow was handling 30m passengers when T4 was being
built, and latest figures (2015) have T123 handling 32.6m [T4+T5 is
40.8m].

So you need to reduce the volumes by about 10%, for the average in the
1977-1986 period?

I wasn't going to bother estimating second order quantities. For
example, I've ignored the passengers abstracted from the Piccadilly Line
by HEx.

Very few, I suspect. Not many potential Tube pax would be prepared to pay
HEx fares.


Also, I wonder how much of that traffic was simply displaced from Hounslow
West, which previously provided the less-satisfactory Heathrow link?

That's accounted for by me using the very low figure of £2 extra fares
(at today's prices) being put in the kitty. The rest of the fare goes
towards funding Hounslow to Central London.

You really need to compare fares and traffic in the 1977-1986 period with
the 1977 investment.


Obviously, with projects like this, there are other benefits
(less pollution and traffic, quicker and more predictable journeys,
etc), so even if it doesn't make a financial return, you might still do
them, and I think that's the case here and in many other urban public
transport schemes.

I was a bit surprised to discover that Atlanta's MARTA (bus and 'RER')
was only one-third funded by the fares basket.

Not too different to LU's 40%, though I suppose you might expect the
Americans to be less keen on subsidies.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 09:11:07 on Mon, 2 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Don't they go all the way through to Uxbridge in the peaks?

No, only about half do. See my other post:
"I just looked at the Rayner's Lane departure board, and in the next 15
minutes there will be six through trains (five Met, one Picc) and two
terminators."

Are they running a weekday, or a Saturday, service?

I'm not sure. But, either way, it proves it can be done, and happens
routinely.

One thing that's not been mentioned yet is that this Heathrow reversing
siding would have to be newly constructed. Why do that when there's
already a pair of platforms installed and ready for the through-running
trains?

Well, the through lines also have to be constructed to the west, so
building a reversing siding (or even a pair of sidings) between them at the
same time would be trivial. Why would it affect the existing platforms?

Note that the Piccadilly line already has reversing sidings beyond the
platforms. And something else that hasn't been mentioned in this thread is
that there have been regular calls for the Piccadilly line also to be
extended to the west.

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 10:02:23 on Mon, 2 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:

One thing that's not been mentioned yet is that this Heathrow reversing
siding would have to be newly constructed. Why do that when there's
already a pair of platforms installed and ready for the through-running
trains?

Well, the through lines also have to be constructed to the west, so
building a reversing siding (or even a pair of sidings) between them at the
same time would be trivial.

I'll give you that one.
--
Roland Perry

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for TfL
 

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 09:47:58 on Mon, 2 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:

And was it based on 1985 service levels and fares, or today's?

Fares were adjusted for inflation, but used current passenger numbers.
Back when the line was built all the passengers were going to T123,
whereas with today's figures only about half of them are. Putting some
numbers on it, Heathrow was handling 30m passengers when T4 was being
built, and latest figures (2015) have T123 handling 32.6m [T4+T5 is
40.8m].

So you need to reduce the volumes by about 10%, for the average in the
1977-1986 period?

I wasn't going to bother estimating second order quantities. For
example, I've ignored the passengers abstracted from the Piccadilly Line
by HEx.

Very few, I suspect. Not many potential Tube pax would be prepared to pay
HEx fares.

HEx is there to abstract from the taxi trade, but there are still people
who would pay HEx fare who previously wouldn't have paid taxi fares and
thus would have used the tube.

Also, I wonder how much of that traffic was simply displaced from Hounslow
West, which previously provided the less-satisfactory Heathrow link?

That's accounted for by me using the very low figure of £2 extra fares
(at today's prices) being put in the kitty. The rest of the fare goes
towards funding Hounslow to Central London.

You really need to compare fares and traffic in the 1977-1986 period with
the 1977 investment.

All monies have been adjusted for inflation, and I'm not sure that T123
tube station is now that much busier than in the early 80's for the
reasons I've given. Heathrow has always had a relatively high percentage
of passengers using public transport - 34% in 1995 is one figure I've
managed to find. And that report mentions 12 million passenger and 3
million staff using the Piccadilly Line. Compared to shade under 10m
for T123+T4 today.
--
Roland Perry

Heathrow runway will create £16bn burden for
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:27:47 on Mon, 2 May 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Don't they go all the way through to Uxbridge in the peaks?

No, only about half do. See my other post:
"I just looked at the Rayner's Lane departure board, and in the next 15
minutes there will be six through trains (five Met, one Picc) and two
terminators."

Are they running a weekday, or a Saturday, service?

I think they must have been running a Saturday service yesterday.

I just looked now, and there are ten trains due at Rayner's Lane in the
next 15 minutes, of which two are terminators. The others are all going to
Uxbridge (six Met, two Picc). The terminators are both followed by through
trains only a minute or two behind. I assume the Met through trains will be
waiting at the signal as the terminators go into the siding.

It also confirms that Met trains have replaced Picc trains on the Uxbridge
branch. It used to be closer to an equal service by both lines, now it's
75% Met beyond Ruislip.

Looking at Acton Town westbound, in the next 15 minutes there are six
Heathrow, one Northfields and three Rayner's Lane/Uxbridge trains.