Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

On Mon, 26 Sep 2016 12:09:23 +0100, David Cantrell
wrote:

On Fri, Sep 23, 2016 at 11:01:31AM +0100, tim... wrote:

but they can afford one city as a trial on the basis of their current
funding

but scaling it up to 10,000 cities just isn't going to be cheap, and I defy
them to find the funding for such.

If they can show that it works in one place, and makes money, then I'm
sure that the funding will be available. Not enough to go straight to
10,000 cities, but to roll it out to another 10 and do a larger trial.
And then to expand that, and to expand that, and so on, until all 10,000
are covered.

You could have levelled the same criticism against bold plans 130 years
ago to do ridiculous things like connect every single house in the
country to the electricity supply.

And I don't know where Tim got the idea that Uber is aiming to
instantly roll out self-driving cars in 10,000 cities. It's currently
only active in about 500, and I suspect it only plans to generate
detailed maps of a small subset of these.

Perhaps it will one day find 10,000 cities to dominate, but that must
be many decades away, if ever, particularly now it's pulled out of
China.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

On Mon, 26 Sep 2016 12:29:25 +0100, Roland Perry
wrote:

In message , at 09:08:36 on Mon, 26 Sep
2016, tim... remarked:

If you're prepared to pay 50 grand for a new car, perhaps

I was astonished to see *second hand* Land Rover Discos for sale on a
forecourt for more than 50k. Some people have money to burn.

Yes, that is a lot. It must have been loaded with extras.

The new, more upmarket Disco 5 is expected to have an entry price of
~£45k for the 2 litre diesel version when it ships next year. The
top-end Disco price is likely to be around £60k or more, before
options.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message , at 12:25:15
on Mon, 26 Sep 2016, David Cantrell remarked:

I used Uber on Saturday. I've noticed that in the last few months I've
not had a single Prius from Uber, but that previously it was almost all
Priuses.

Prii, shirley?

https://www.engadget.com/2011/02/21/...ural-of-prius-
is-prii-your-latin-teach/
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message , at 12:54:47 on
Mon, 26 Sep 2016, Recliner remarked:
On Mon, 26 Sep 2016 12:06:13 +0100, Roland Perry
wrote:

In message , at 09:08:36 on Mon, 26 Sep
2016, tim... remarked:
I have already explained, this is risk capital with the backers
expecting a return on only 1 in 3 of their investments. Uber has been
measured against that criteria. You really can't use the measure that
VCs are investing as proof that a venture is guaranteed to be
successful. The world is littered with VC failures, including some
that required investments in the Billions. How much did Microsoft lose
buying Skyp?

Twitter is looking for White Knight at the moment, having consistently
lost money with no turn-around on the horizon.

Of course, Twitter had a successful IPO, so the VCs have already got
their return. It's the later TWTR investors who are hoping for a
generous buyout. But the company is making money, albeit much less
than hoped-for:

"The company posted second-quarter adjusted earnings of 13 cents a
share on revenue of $602 million. Wall Street expected it to post
earnings of 10 cents a share on revenue of $607 million, according to
a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate. Profit per share was up from 7
cents a year earlier, and revenue rose 20 percent."

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/26/twitt...econd-quarter-
2016-earnings.html

Alternatively:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...r-shares-dive-
as-it-reports-heavy-loss/
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message , at 13:05:54 on
Mon, 26 Sep 2016, Recliner remarked:

In message , at 09:08:36 on Mon, 26 Sep
2016, tim... remarked:

If you're prepared to pay 50 grand for a new car, perhaps

I was astonished to see *second hand* Land Rover Discos for sale on a
forecourt for more than 50k. Some people have money to burn.

Yes, that is a lot. It must have been loaded with extras.

"It" - there were loads[1], perhaps not very old, but there have always
been a lot of very low mileage Discos for sale. People buying them
expecting a cheap Range Rover not an expensive Defender, perhaps?

The new, more upmarket Disco 5 is expected to have an entry price of
~£45k for the 2 litre diesel version when it ships next year. The
top-end Disco price is likely to be around £60k or more, before
options.

[1] https://goo.gl/maps/zNthwYkdsQ42
https://www.hunterslandrover.co.uk/c...ock/?ranges=Di
scovery&price=1000-110000&age=5&co2emissions=1-400&sortType=combinedmpg&
sortOrder=desc&view=list-view%20vtype-car&p=1
Says they have fifteen for sale In Guildford. Most expensive this
week £43,499; others in the chain have them up to £51,500.
https://www.hunterslandrover.co.uk/v...ery/discovery-
30-sdv6-landmark/discovery-30-sdv6-landmark-pk16mbf-2793321/
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message , at 12:46:36 on
Mon, 26 Sep 2016, Recliner remarked:

But these improvements will feed back into the
eventual commercial release, which is probably several years away.

Like fusion power, you mean?

No, exactly the opposite. This stuff works,

Only with human drivers available to take over.

and just needs fine-tuning.

There's general agreement in the industry that they "just don't work" in
snow. That's not "only-just don't work", flat "don't work".
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

On Mon, 26 Sep 2016 13:11:50 +0100, Roland Perry
wrote:

In message , at 12:54:47 on
Mon, 26 Sep 2016, Recliner remarked:
On Mon, 26 Sep 2016 12:06:13 +0100, Roland Perry
wrote:

In message , at 09:08:36 on Mon, 26 Sep
2016, tim... remarked:
I have already explained, this is risk capital with the backers
expecting a return on only 1 in 3 of their investments. Uber has been
measured against that criteria. You really can't use the measure that
VCs are investing as proof that a venture is guaranteed to be
successful. The world is littered with VC failures, including some
that required investments in the Billions. How much did Microsoft lose
buying Skyp?

Twitter is looking for White Knight at the moment, having consistently
lost money with no turn-around on the horizon.

Of course, Twitter had a successful IPO, so the VCs have already got
their return. It's the later TWTR investors who are hoping for a
generous buyout. But the company is making money, albeit much less
than hoped-for:

"The company posted second-quarter adjusted earnings of 13 cents a
share on revenue of $602 million. Wall Street expected it to post
earnings of 10 cents a share on revenue of $607 million, according to
a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate. Profit per share was up from 7
cents a year earlier, and revenue rose 20 percent."

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/26/twitt...econd-quarter-
2016-earnings.html

Alternatively:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...r-shares-dive-
as-it-reports-heavy-loss/

Both are probably correct. It depends on what adjustments are
included:

- Q2 GAAP net loss of $107 million and non-GAAP net income of $93
million.

- Q2 GAAP diluted EPS of ($0.15) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.13.

- Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $175 million, up 45% year-over-year,
representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29%.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-2F526X/2906934520x0x901385/664658CA-D1D8-4635-83F4-8C9D5A9A1F52/ShareholderLetter_Q2_16.pdf

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:45:29 on Mon, 26 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 21:30:40 on Sat, 24 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:

Anyway, here's a recent report of Uber's self-driving tests in
Pittsburgh:
http://www.economist.com/news/busine...nches-its-firs
t-self-driving-cars-pitt-stop

I think you'll find that's the University's testing, and because Uber
funds that programme they get to go "along for the ride" so to speak.

It's also an early testing phase, which the cars won't necessarily pass.

It's not really a pass or fail issue. It's an alpha test. I assume the
software, algorithms and mapping database will be continually adjusted
during this testing phase, but no-one is planning to roll out this version
as a commercial release. But these improvements will feed back into the
eventual commercial release, which is probably several years away.

Like fusion power, you mean?

The big step in this phase is that it's not just the private test running
that Google has been doing for years, but a public test, with random
members of the public actually using the cars as a taxi service.

I've always assumed the Google test was at the very least assisting their
employees to commute to work. Or is it only people driving around at
random during their work day with the firm?


The German company that I recently worked for ran their trial autonomous car
solely around the factor site (it was a big factory site)

It only just avoided knocking down its garage as they put it to bed one day
:-)

tim

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

On Mon, Sep 26, 2016 at 12:31:48PM +0100, Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 12:01:29
on Mon, 26 Sep 2016, David Cantrell remarked:
What's different about them that makes it possible for someone to pop up
and start competing with Uber, but impossible for someone to pop up and
start competing with Amazon?
Mainly that Uber's buyers are only dealing with one commodity - drivers,
and their product is self-delivering. Amazon has tens of thousands of
product suppliers

So do Tesco.

and tens of thousands of people required for
picking/packing and delivering them.

So they're a bit bigger than any of the supermarket home delivery
things or something like Sports Direct, but that's not an insurmountable
problem.

In any case, to compete with a business you don't have to do everything
that that business does or do it in the same way. The few remaining
bookshops, for example, are in competition with Amazon, despite not
also selling beer and sex toys, despite not stocking many books, and
despite not delivering them to your door for free.

--
David Cantrell | top google result for "topless karaoke murders"

Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message , at 13:51:15
on Tue, 27 Sep 2016, David Cantrell remarked:

What's different about them that makes it possible for someone to pop up
and start competing with Uber, but impossible for someone to pop up and
start competing with Amazon?
Mainly that Uber's buyers are only dealing with one commodity - drivers,
and their product is self-delivering. Amazon has tens of thousands of
product suppliers

So do Tesco.

Hence you couldn't set up in competition to tesco as easily (as you can
with Uber) either. What's your point?

and tens of thousands of people required for
picking/packing and delivering them.

So they're a bit bigger than any of the supermarket home delivery
things or something like Sports Direct, but that's not an insurmountable
problem.

I only takes abut ten years to grow a company of the size you are taking
about.

In any case, to compete with a business you don't have to do everything
that that business does or do it in the same way. The few remaining
bookshops, for example, are in competition with Amazon, despite not
also selling beer and sex toys, despite not stocking many books, and
despite not delivering them to your door for free.

Which is why people can easily set up competitors for Uber by
cherry-picking a bit of its market (just one of the types of service,
one city, etc).
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 13:51:15
on Tue, 27 Sep 2016, David Cantrell remarked:

What's different about them that makes it possible for someone to pop up
and start competing with Uber, but impossible for someone to pop up and
start competing with Amazon?
Mainly that Uber's buyers are only dealing with one commodity - drivers,
and their product is self-delivering. Amazon has tens of thousands of
product suppliers

So do Tesco.

Hence you couldn't set up in competition to tesco as easily (as you can
with Uber) either. What's your point?

and tens of thousands of people required for
picking/packing and delivering them.

So they're a bit bigger than any of the supermarket home delivery
things or something like Sports Direct, but that's not an insurmountable
problem.

I only takes abut ten years to grow a company of the size you are taking
about.

In any case, to compete with a business you don't have to do everything
that that business does or do it in the same way. The few remaining
bookshops, for example, are in competition with Amazon, despite not
also selling beer and sex toys, despite not stocking many books, and
despite not delivering them to your door for free.

Which is why people can easily set up competitors for Uber by
cherry-picking a bit of its market (just one of the types of service,
one city, etc).

They can, but as soon as it notices the new competition, Uber then just
cuts prices in that narrow market segment (without reducing what it pays
drivers). It has deeper pockets than any new competitor, and can outlast
them. It's what the established airlines did to drive Laker out of
business.

Basically, a new entrant can't beat an established market leader just by
having lower prices. It has to offer something better, that is hard for the
incumbent to match. Virgin Atlantic learned from Laker's experiences and
included a superior business class that it sold at the same price as BA
Club World; BA could undercut Virgin, but couldn't bring out a superior
product just on the routes where it competed with Virgin. And it couldn't
afford to have a better business class on the many routes where it wasn't
competing with Virgin. Virgin also invented Mid Class (now Premium Economy)
which BA did eventually copy.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 15:32:41 on Tue, 27 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:

Basically, a new entrant can't beat an established market leader just by
having lower prices. It has to offer something better

What's better about Aldi than Tesco, if not the prices?

It's certainly not the range of products or length of checkout queues.
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

On 2016-09-27 16:02:35 +0000, Roland Perry said:

What's better about Aldi than Tesco, if not the prices?

It's certainly not the range of products or length of checkout queues.

Simple price and price/quality ratio primarily, but also a smaller shop
meaning it doesn't take as long to complete a weekly shop.

A smaller range of products *can* be a good thing, provided it is very
well selected, which by and large it is.

Neil
--
Neil Williams
Put my first name before the @ to reply.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message , at 17:40:24 on Tue, 27
Sep 2016, Neil Williams remarked:
What's better about Aldi than Tesco, if not the prices?
It's certainly not the range of products or length of checkout
queues.

Simple price and price/quality ratio primarily, but also a smaller shop
meaning it doesn't take as long to complete a weekly shop.

You've never been in a Tesco Express, then?

A smaller range of products *can* be a good thing, provided it is very
well selected, which by and large it is.

Their product range is extremely unpredictable. Only yesterday I went in
to buy something they've had for sale for a few months, and they've
obviously churned their stock in that [soft drinks] aisle from "Summer"
to "Autumn" and it's no longer available.

They also never stock quite a few really basic things (sour cream is
something I think is on that list, and yet they sell lots of 'other'
Tex-Mex stuff).

The other thing they do, which is sort of clever but backfires, is
packing several varieties of the same thing in one tray.

So they'll have a pile of mixed trays of cottage cheese, cottage cheese
with pineapple and cottage cheese with something else [chives maybe],
and people have gone through picking out all the plain cottage cheese,
leaving a sorry pile of all those other sorts that no-one [especially
me] wants.

Of course, their non-food takes these features to extremes, with much of
the stock being for sale for only a few weeks a year, and bins full of
clothing that within a day or two are entirely the unpopular sizes
no-one wants.
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

On 2016-09-27 17:11:28 +0000, Roland Perry said:

You've never been in a Tesco Express, then?

Of course I have (I do quite often, I don't tend to use full size
supermarkets in person, rather if I want to do that I have a delivery),
and that indeed offers that part of the business model, albeit
generally at a higher price. Companies don't necessarily have to have
totally unique business models, you know :)

So they'll have a pile of mixed trays of cottage cheese, cottage cheese
with pineapple and cottage cheese with something else [chives maybe],
and people have gone through picking out all the plain cottage cheese,
leaving a sorry pile of all those other sorts that no-one [especially
me] wants.

Yes, I've hit issues with that, they won't get a new one out until it's
all gone.

Of course, their non-food takes these features to extremes, with much
of the stock being for sale for only a few weeks a year, and bins full
of clothing that within a day or two are entirely the unpopular sizes
no-one wants.

That's a very German thing, there are other variants e.g. the Tchibo
coffee chain which is a curious combination of Costalottabucks, Argos
(for order) and the Aldi non-food section. The concept fits the
typical German small shop quite well.

Neil
--
Neil Williams
Put my first name before the @ to reply.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 15:32:41 on Tue, 27 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:

Basically, a new entrant can't beat an established market leader just by
having lower prices. It has to offer something better

What's better about Aldi than Tesco, if not the prices?

It's certainly not the range of products or length of checkout queues.

Aldi is a low cost, not just a low price, chain. An Uber start-up
competitor would have higher, not lower costs. It's why Ryanair and easyJet
succeed, where bmi Baby failed.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message
-septe
mber.org, at 21:29:33 on Tue, 27 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Basically, a new entrant can't beat an established market leader just by
having lower prices. It has to offer something better

What's better about Aldi than Tesco, if not the prices?

It's certainly not the range of products or length of checkout queues.

Aldi is a low cost, not just a low price, chain.

Having lower costs is how they can do the lower prices. It's the latter
which attracts the customers.

An Uber start-up competitor would have higher, not lower costs.

A Uber competitor in a small section of their market would have lower
costs. No vanity projects like driverless cars, and they'd probably
expect the drivers to pay their way rather than be subsidised.

It's why Ryanair and easyJet succeed, where bmi Baby failed.

The reason BMIbaby failed was because they failed to fill the planes up.
Part of that is because as a much smaller airline they had very little
brand recognition on the Continent, where you want a lot of your
customers to be living, so that you don't get excessive tidal flow
arising from mainly UK-based customers.

I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other two
one of the newest. That must impact the cost.
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

On 2016-09-28 06:07:44 +0000, Roland Perry said:

I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other
two one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

The easyJet and Ryanair argument is that good deals on new planes are
actually cheaper to operate overall - highly reliable, for example.

Neil
--
Neil Williams
Put my first name before the @ to reply.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-septe
mber.org, at 21:29:33 on Tue, 27 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Basically, a new entrant can't beat an established market leader just by
having lower prices. It has to offer something better

What's better about Aldi than Tesco, if not the prices?

It's certainly not the range of products or length of checkout queues.

Aldi is a low cost, not just a low price, chain.

Having lower costs is how they can do the lower prices. It's the latter
which attracts the customers.

Absolutely. But it's why they can have sustained low prices. A start-up
Uber competitor would have higher costs and wouldn't be able to compete on
price for long.


An Uber start-up competitor would have higher, not lower costs.

A Uber competitor in a small section of their market would have lower
costs. No vanity projects like driverless cars, and they'd probably
expect the drivers to pay their way rather than be subsidised.

They would, and it's why their prices would be higher than Uber's. Not a
good way to win business.


It's why Ryanair and easyJet succeed, where bmi Baby failed.

The reason BMIbaby failed was because they failed to fill the planes up.
Part of that is because as a much smaller airline they had very little
brand recognition on the Continent, where you want a lot of your
customers to be living, so that you don't get excessive tidal flow
arising from mainly UK-based customers.

Whenever I've flown easyJet or Ryanair, it's been on routes that primarily
attract Brits or the Irish, and that's what all the pax were, in both
directions.

And as for brand recognition, Uber will be the easy winner against a niche
local competitor.


I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other two
one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

Yes, it does, in favour of the airlines operating large, modern, homogenous
fleets. It's why true low cost airlines all buy their planes new, and don't
keep them too long. By bulk buying, they get brand-new planes, built to
their exact spec, and support services, all at the lowest possible cost.
BmiBaby had a motley collection of elderly 737s, all acquired second-hand.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message , at 08:45:17 on Wed, 28
Sep 2016, Neil Williams remarked:

I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other
two one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

The easyJet and Ryanair argument is that good deals on new planes are
actually cheaper to operate overall - highly reliable, for example.

So BMIbaby's problem was an incompetent fleet purchasing department?
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message
-septe
mber.org, at 07:50:20 on Wed, 28 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:

Basically, a new entrant can't beat an established market leader just by
having lower prices. It has to offer something better

What's better about Aldi than Tesco, if not the prices?

It's certainly not the range of products or length of checkout queues.

Aldi is a low cost, not just a low price, chain.

Having lower costs is how they can do the lower prices. It's the latter
which attracts the customers.

Absolutely. But it's why they can have sustained low prices. A start-up
Uber competitor would have higher costs

Even if run from someone's back bedroom?

and wouldn't be able to compete on price for long.

It could compete for as long as the local drivers were prepared to swap
more business for lower fares.

An Uber start-up competitor would have higher, not lower costs.

A Uber competitor in a small section of their market would have lower
costs. No vanity projects like driverless cars, and they'd probably
expect the drivers to pay their way rather than be subsidised.

They would, and it's why their prices would be higher than Uber's.

Why does drivers not being subsidised make this new-Uber's prices
higher?

It's why Ryanair and easyJet succeed, where bmi Baby failed.

The reason BMIbaby failed was because they failed to fill the planes up.
Part of that is because as a much smaller airline they had very little
brand recognition on the Continent, where you want a lot of your
customers to be living, so that you don't get excessive tidal flow
arising from mainly UK-based customers.

Whenever I've flown easyJet or Ryanair, it's been on routes that primarily
attract Brits or the Irish, and that's what all the pax were, in both
directions.

You must not have flown to Eastern Europe very often.

And as for brand recognition, Uber will be the easy winner against a niche
local competitor.

I bet more people where I live have heard of Panther [500+ cars in
Cambridge] than Uber.

I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other two
one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

Yes, it does, in favour of the airlines operating large, modern, homogenous
fleets. It's why true low cost airlines all buy their planes new, and don't
keep them too long. By bulk buying, they get brand-new planes, built to
their exact spec, and support services, all at the lowest possible cost.
BmiBaby had a motley collection of elderly 737s, all acquired second-hand.

So their buyer's fault they failed?
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 08:45:17 on Wed, 28
Sep 2016, Neil Williams remarked:

I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other
two one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

The easyJet and Ryanair argument is that good deals on new planes are
actually cheaper to operate overall - highly reliable, for example.

So BMIbaby's problem was an incompetent fleet purchasing department?

No. The problem was a lack of strategy. The fleet purchasing department can
only do what it is told to do, which was to buy up the cheapest 737s it
could find. That is absolutely not the way to run a low cost airline.

The former British Midland was in its death throes, scrambling around for
anything to stay afloat. Low cost airlines seemed to be the fashion, so it
tried to set up a little one on the cheap, at the same time as it was
trying to create a Virgin Atlantic mini-me in Heathrow (by buying the
failing BMed and a tiny fleets of A330s) and a Flybe mini-me regional
airline (the only bit that has kept the bmi brand). None worked.

I don't know if there was a winning strategy for BM, but the ones it tried
were all obvious losers from the beginning. It ended up being worth less as
a business than the Heathrow slots it owned. Michael Bishop and pals did
well out of it, but Lufthansa was the big loser. BA has also done well with
the surviving bits it bought on the cheap.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-septe
mber.org, at 07:50:20 on Wed, 28 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:

Basically, a new entrant can't beat an established market leader just by
having lower prices. It has to offer something better

What's better about Aldi than Tesco, if not the prices?

It's certainly not the range of products or length of checkout queues.

Aldi is a low cost, not just a low price, chain.

Having lower costs is how they can do the lower prices. It's the latter
which attracts the customers.

Absolutely. But it's why they can have sustained low prices. A start-up
Uber competitor would have higher costs

Even if run from someone's back bedroom?

That's probably a higher labour cost per ride than the highly automated
Uber incurs. How would this little operation handle fare calculations,
customer billing, driver payments, advertising, route creation and
monitoring, and all the other things that Uber slickly automates? Or are
you just suggesting a simple, local, manual mini cab operation?


and wouldn't be able to compete on price for long.

It could compete for as long as the local drivers were prepared to swap
more business for lower fares.

Not if their payments were less than the running costs of their cars.
Uber's drivers in the same city would earn more per ride, and probably get
more of them.


An Uber start-up competitor would have higher, not lower costs.

A Uber competitor in a small section of their market would have lower
costs. No vanity projects like driverless cars, and they'd probably
expect the drivers to pay their way rather than be subsidised.

They would, and it's why their prices would be higher than Uber's.

Why does drivers not being subsidised make this new-Uber's prices
higher?

Uber's subsidies are basically to allow fares to be lower than what the
drivers earn. The niche competitor, by not doing this, either has to pay
its drivers less than it costs them to run the cars (so zero drivers), or
charge more than Uber (so very few customers).


It's why Ryanair and easyJet succeed, where bmi Baby failed.

The reason BMIbaby failed was because they failed to fill the planes up.
Part of that is because as a much smaller airline they had very little
brand recognition on the Continent, where you want a lot of your
customers to be living, so that you don't get excessive tidal flow
arising from mainly UK-based customers.

Whenever I've flown easyJet or Ryanair, it's been on routes that primarily
attract Brits or the Irish, and that's what all the pax were, in both
directions.

You must not have flown to Eastern Europe very often.

And as for brand recognition, Uber will be the easy winner against a niche
local competitor.

I bet more people where I live have heard of Panther [500+ cars in
Cambridge] than Uber.

Perhaps. Does Uber even operate yet in Cambridge? And would visitors to
Cambridge have heard of Panther (which is where branding matters)?




I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other two
one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

Yes, it does, in favour of the airlines operating large, modern, homogenous
fleets. It's why true low cost airlines all buy their planes new, and don't
keep them too long. By bulk buying, they get brand-new planes, built to
their exact spec, and support services, all at the lowest possible cost.
BmiBaby had a motley collection of elderly 737s, all acquired second-hand.

So their buyer's fault they failed?

No, the airline's lack of strategy or understanding of the low cost airline
business model.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

On 28/09/2016 08:45, Neil Williams wrote:

On 2016-09-28 06:07:44 +0000, Roland Perry said:

I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other
two one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

The easyJet and Ryanair argument is that good deals on new planes are
actually cheaper to operate overall - highly reliable, for example.

It's interesting that another low cost airline, Jet2, does it the other
way round, having a fleet of older planes.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:30:06 on Wed, 28 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:
I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other
two one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

The easyJet and Ryanair argument is that good deals on new planes are
actually cheaper to operate overall - highly reliable, for example.

So BMIbaby's problem was an incompetent fleet purchasing department?

No. The problem was a lack of strategy. The fleet purchasing department can
only do what it is told to do, which was to buy up the cheapest 737s it
could find. That is absolutely not the way to run a low cost airline.

The former British Midland was in its death throes, scrambling around for
anything to stay afloat. Low cost airlines seemed to be the fashion, so it
tried to set up a little one on the cheap, at the same time as it was
trying to create a Virgin Atlantic mini-me in Heathrow (by buying the
failing BMed and a tiny fleets of A330s) and a Flybe mini-me regional
airline (the only bit that has kept the bmi brand). None worked.

I don't know if there was a winning strategy for BM, but the ones it tried
were all obvious losers from the beginning.

Getting back to competitors for Uber, none would be trying to win on
several fronts simultaneously, so perhaps we can agree that BMIbaby is a
red herring.
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

Mizter T wrote:

On 28/09/2016 08:45, Neil Williams wrote:

On 2016-09-28 06:07:44 +0000, Roland Perry said:

I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other
two one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

The easyJet and Ryanair argument is that good deals on new planes are
actually cheaper to operate overall - highly reliable, for example.

It's interesting that another low cost airline, Jet2, does it the other
way round, having a fleet of older planes.

Jet2 is the current name for an old (1983) charter and freight operator,
Channel Express. Its older planes were bought second-hand, but it's now
moving to a modern low cost model, with an order for 30 new 738s last year.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:30:06 on Wed, 28 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:
I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other
two one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

The easyJet and Ryanair argument is that good deals on new planes are
actually cheaper to operate overall - highly reliable, for example.

So BMIbaby's problem was an incompetent fleet purchasing department?

No. The problem was a lack of strategy. The fleet purchasing department can
only do what it is told to do, which was to buy up the cheapest 737s it
could find. That is absolutely not the way to run a low cost airline.

The former British Midland was in its death throes, scrambling around for
anything to stay afloat. Low cost airlines seemed to be the fashion, so it
tried to set up a little one on the cheap, at the same time as it was
trying to create a Virgin Atlantic mini-me in Heathrow (by buying the
failing BMed and a tiny fleets of A330s) and a Flybe mini-me regional
airline (the only bit that has kept the bmi brand). None worked.

I don't know if there was a winning strategy for BM, but the ones it tried
were all obvious losers from the beginning.

Getting back to competitors for Uber, none would be trying to win on
several fronts simultaneously, so perhaps we can agree that BMIbaby is a
red herring.

I only mentioned it to illustrate the point that to sustain low prices, you
also need low costs. Uber's driverless cars are ultimately all about cost
reduction.

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...future-of-uber

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message
-septe
mber.org, at 09:19:54 on Wed, 28 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:

Getting back to competitors for Uber, none would be trying to win on
several fronts simultaneously, so perhaps we can agree that BMIbaby is a
red herring.

I only mentioned it to illustrate the point that to sustain low prices, you
also need low costs. Uber's driverless cars are ultimately all about cost
reduction.

So irrelevant to a small local competitor starting up next week.
--
Roland Perry

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-septe
mber.org, at 09:19:54 on Wed, 28 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:

Getting back to competitors for Uber, none would be trying to win on
several fronts simultaneously, so perhaps we can agree that BMIbaby is a
red herring.

I only mentioned it to illustrate the point that to sustain low prices, you
also need low costs. Uber's driverless cars are ultimately all about cost
reduction.

So irrelevant to a small local competitor starting up next week.

Absolutely. And they won't survive long enough to have to compete with the
driverless cars, even if they arrive as early as the optimists hooe.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message , at 17:40:24 on Tue, 27 Sep
2016, Neil Williams remarked:
What's better about Aldi than Tesco, if not the prices?
It's certainly not the range of products or length of checkout queues.

Simple price and price/quality ratio primarily, but also a smaller shop
meaning it doesn't take as long to complete a weekly shop.

You've never been in a Tesco Express, then?

A smaller range of products *can* be a good thing, provided it is very
well selected, which by and large it is.

Their product range is extremely unpredictable. Only yesterday I went in
to buy something they've had for sale for a few months, and they've
obviously churned their stock in that [soft drinks] aisle from "Summer" to
"Autumn" and it's no longer available.

They also never stock quite a few really basic things (sour cream is
something I think is on that list, and yet they sell lots of 'other'
Tex-Mex stuff).

The other thing they do, which is sort of clever but backfires, is packing
several varieties of the same thing in one tray.

So they'll have a pile of mixed trays of cottage cheese, cottage cheese
with pineapple and cottage cheese with something else [chives maybe], and
people have gone through picking out all the plain cottage cheese, leaving
a sorry pile of all those other sorts that no-one [especially me] wants.

Of course, their non-food takes these features to extremes, with much of
the stock being for sale for only a few weeks a year, and bins full of
clothing that within a day or two are entirely the unpopular sizes no-one
wants.

It is clear from the piles in the vacuum packed pasta selection that I am
not the only person who doesn't like gnocchi.

You have to go back 4 or 5 times to be lucky enough to find one or two of
the tortellini selection amongst the 100+ packs of gnocchi. (or
alternatively they are short dated - on one occasion shorter than the date
on the equivalent item in the fresh pasta selection, because they had kept
all the new packs hidden out the back waiting for the million over-purchased
packs of gnocchi to sell.)

Quite how Aldi cannot learn from this and realise that they need to order
from their suppliers in 40-40-20 ratio rather than 33-33-33 defeats me. I
thought they prided themselves on their management ability

tim

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

"Neil Williams" wrote in message
...
On 2016-09-27 17:11:28 +0000, Roland Perry said:

You've never been in a Tesco Express, then?

Of course I have (I do quite often, I don't tend to use full size
supermarkets in person, rather if I want to do that I have a delivery),
and that indeed offers that part of the business model, albeit generally
at a higher price. Companies don't necessarily have to have totally
unique business models, you know :)

So they'll have a pile of mixed trays of cottage cheese, cottage cheese
with pineapple and cottage cheese with something else [chives maybe], and
people have gone through picking out all the plain cottage cheese,
leaving a sorry pile of all those other sorts that no-one [especially me]
wants.

Yes, I've hit issues with that, they won't get a new one out until it's
all gone.

Of course, their non-food takes these features to extremes, with much of
the stock being for sale for only a few weeks a year, and bins full of
clothing that within a day or two are entirely the unpopular sizes no-one
wants.

That's a very German thing, there are other variants e.g. the Tchibo
coffee chain which is a curious combination of Costalottabucks, Argos (for
order) and the Aldi non-food section. The concept fits the typical German
small shop quite well.

IME doesn't work well there either.

More than once I raked over the cheese or the dessert-pot selection and
walked away without my desired variety. (that was in pennymarkt, one of the
numerous German stores which has competed with the aldilidl model by copying
it)

tim

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

"Recliner" wrote in message
...
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 08:45:17 on Wed, 28
Sep 2016, Neil Williams remarked:

I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other
two one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

The easyJet and Ryanair argument is that good deals on new planes are
actually cheaper to operate overall - highly reliable, for example.

So BMIbaby's problem was an incompetent fleet purchasing department?

No. The problem was a lack of strategy.

surely their biggest problem was focussing on flying from airports that
almost nobody found convenient to fly from (or to)

tim

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

tim... wrote:

"Recliner" wrote in message
...
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 08:45:17 on Wed, 28
Sep 2016, Neil Williams remarked:

I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other
two one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

The easyJet and Ryanair argument is that good deals on new planes are
actually cheaper to operate overall - highly reliable, for example.

So BMIbaby's problem was an incompetent fleet purchasing department?

No. The problem was a lack of strategy.

surely their biggest problem was focussing on flying from airports that
almost nobody found convenient to fly from (or to)

That sounds more like Ryanair, which seems to thrive regardless.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

On 2016-09-28 15:13:42 +0000, Recliner said:

That sounds more like Ryanair, which seems to thrive regardless.

Sometimes those airports are actually more convenient. Bergamo might
be a nuisance if you're going to Milan, but is really quite good if you
wish to hire a car and drive to the Garda/Sirmione region. And it's a
very nice modern airport. Gdansk isn't very near any large Polish
cities, but it's quite useful when you want to go to, er, Gdansk, as I
did a few weeks ago. Luton might be a nuisance if going to London, but
is very convenient for the south and east Midlands and north end of the
Home Counties. Stansted, well, isn't near very much, I'll give you.

The low-cost airline market has developed well beyond low-cost city
breaks these days.

Neil
--
Neil Williams
Put my first name before the @ to reply.

eat me, was Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

It is clear from the piles in the vacuum packed pasta selection that I am
not the only person who doesn't like gnocchi. ...

Quite how Aldi cannot learn from this and realise that they need to order
from their suppliers in 40-40-20 ratio rather than 33-33-33 defeats me. I
thought they prided themselves on their management ability

More likely there are other parts of the country where people love
gnocchi and leave stacks of tortellini.

As the saying goes, perhaps you need to get out more.

Helpfully,
John

PS: The Aldis in the US do the same thing, so perhaps the packs are
averaged over multiple countries, and we are at the mercy of gnocchi
lovers in Poland.

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 13:05:54 on
Mon, 26 Sep 2016, Recliner remarked:

In message , at 09:08:36 on Mon, 26 Sep
2016, tim... remarked:

If you're prepared to pay 50 grand for a new car, perhaps

I was astonished to see *second hand* Land Rover Discos for sale on a
forecourt for more than 50k. Some people have money to burn.

Yes, that is a lot. It must have been loaded with extras.

"It" - there were loads[1], perhaps not very old, but there have always
been a lot of very low mileage Discos for sale. People buying them
expecting a cheap Range Rover not an expensive Defender, perhaps?

The new, more upmarket Disco 5 is expected to have an entry price of
~£45k for the 2 litre diesel version when it ships next year. The
top-end Disco price is likely to be around £60k or more, before
options.

[1] https://goo.gl/maps/zNthwYkdsQ42
https://www.hunterslandrover.co.uk/c...ock/?ranges=Di
scovery&price=1000-110000&age=5&co2emissions=1-400&sortType=combinedmpg&
sortOrder=desc&view=list-view%20vtype-car&p=1
Says they have fifteen for sale In Guildford. Most expensive this
week £43,499; others in the chain have them up to £51,500.
https://www.hunterslandrover.co.uk/v...ery/discovery-
30-sdv6-landmark/discovery-30-sdv6-landmark-pk16mbf-2793321/

The new 2017 model:
http://www.topgear.com/car-news/brit...over-discovery

"Prices start at £43,495 for the Discovery S, and the 600-unit limited
First Edition – which features a map etched into the aluminium on the doors
and dash – costs £68,295."

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

In message
-septe
mber.org, at 22:22:50 on Wed, 28 Sep 2016, Recliner
remarked:

Says they have fifteen for sale In Guildford. Most expensive this
week £43,499; others in the chain have them up to £51,500.
https://www.hunterslandrover.co.uk/v...ery/discovery-
30-sdv6-landmark/discovery-30-sdv6-landmark-pk16mbf-2793321/

The new 2017 model:
http://www.topgear.com/car-news/brit...over-discovery

"Prices start at £43,495 for the Discovery S, and the 600-unit limited
First Edition – which features a map etched into the aluminium on the doors
and dash – costs £68,295."

Doesn't change the fact I wouldn't pay £50k for a second hand one.
--
Roland Perry

eat me, was Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

"John Levine" wrote in message
...
It is clear from the piles in the vacuum packed pasta selection that I am
not the only person who doesn't like gnocchi. ...

Quite how Aldi cannot learn from this and realise that they need to order
from their suppliers in 40-40-20 ratio rather than 33-33-33 defeats me. I
thought they prided themselves on their management ability

More likely there are other parts of the country where people love
gnocchi and leave stacks of tortellini.

don't think so.

It is a routinely dull food item.

As the saying goes, perhaps you need to get out more.

That's uncalled for. I would be willing to bet that I knew what gnocchi was
(and discovered that I didn't like it - even when made fresh and not
disadvantaged by a cheap manufacturing process) long before the majority of
the UK population even knew it existed- 1982).


Helpfully,

Or not

John

PS: The Aldis in the US do the same thing, so perhaps the packs are
averaged over multiple countries, and we are at the mercy of gnocchi
lovers in Poland.

As it would need to be repackage with Polish details, I doubt that.

There are loads of products that Aldi do not sell in every country, and
there are some German ones that I wish I could buy here

tim

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

"Recliner" wrote in message
...
tim... wrote:

"Recliner" wrote in message
...
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 08:45:17 on Wed, 28
Sep 2016, Neil Williams remarked:

I'm no sure which part of their costs you think were significantly
higher - they had one of the oldest fleets in the air, and the other
two one of the newest. That must impact the cost.

The easyJet and Ryanair argument is that good deals on new planes are
actually cheaper to operate overall - highly reliable, for example.

So BMIbaby's problem was an incompetent fleet purchasing department?

No. The problem was a lack of strategy.

surely their biggest problem was focussing on flying from airports that
almost nobody found convenient to fly from (or to)

That sounds more like Ryanair, which seems to thrive regardless.


The problem with BMIB was that they only flew from one region of the country
(the midlands) [1] which presumably wasn't a big enough catchment for the
quantity/type of flights that they offered.

Not that the individual airports were inconvenient (though for PT access,
one of them was)

[1] that's all Wikipedia will admit to, did they fly (to Europe) from
elsewhere?

tim

Is Uber Bleeding to Death?
 

"Neil Williams" wrote in message
...
On 2016-09-28 15:13:42 +0000, Recliner said:

That sounds more like Ryanair, which seems to thrive regardless.

Sometimes those airports are actually more convenient. Bergamo might be a
nuisance if you're going to Milan, but is really quite good if you wish to
hire a car and drive to the Garda/Sirmione region. And it's a very nice
modern airport. Gdansk isn't very near any large Polish cities,

Gdansk-Gdynia would be the third largest city in Poland if it were one
single city

None of the other large towns has a twin bordering it.

I used to fly with Ryan to MMX and NRN as they were both more convenient to
my final destination than the main alternatives. Though they are both a
bitch for PT and you need to have arranged onwards transportation by
car/coach.

tim