Recliner wrote:

Remember, the lockdown isn't a cure; it's just a way of prolonging
the agony, and only justified to avoid overloading the NHS, which it did
very successfully, even in London.

Exactly. Squeezing the balloon does not deflate the balloon.

Recliner wrote:
tim... wrote:


"Recliner" wrote in message
...
tim... wrote:


"Recliner" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 19 May 2020 09:45:14 +0000 (UTC), wrote:

On Tue, 19 May 2020 08:25:34 -0000 (UTC)
Recliner wrote:
The 2m thing is like a religious prohibition: vaguely based on a
sensible

I hadn't thought of it like that, but it certainly matches peoples
behaviour.
Wierdly - assuming my local supermarket is typical - that behaviour is
forgotten in the aisles. Presumably because its almost impossible to
observe.

Tempting though it may be, most experts say we should not look for
individuals. Superspreading events are determined by a complex mix of
behavioural and environmental factors.

I wonder if its complex in reality. I imagine its the sort of people
who
wipe
their nose with their fingers then go and then go and touch a dozen
items
in
every shop they visit and hardly buy any of them just leaving them on
the
shelves nicely infected. Ditto when they touch the handles in buses and
trains.

In London, cases of coronavirus have dropped dramatically since the
lockdown. The superspreading events that were once spreading the virus
so
widely have now stopped.

I doubt they've stopped , far more likely IMO is that a significant
proportion
of the population have caught the virus without knowing it and are now
immune.

I think it's true that in London, most of the mobile population is now
either immune of not susceptible to the disease. I was in Waitrose
today, and everyone seemed more relaxed. Few of the staff were
bothering to wear the face shields they're supplied with, there was no
special sanitising of the trolley handles, and people got quite close
to each other in the aisles. There was also almost no queue to get in.

The few people with or susceptible to the disease in London are in
care homes or hospitals, and the task now is to stop it getting back
into the wider population.

though we are still getting 3,500 new cases every day

You're out by three orders of magnitude. The number of new cases a day in
London is probably now in single figures:

I mean in the whole country, and it's not the quantum that's the problem,
it's the fact that it has barely moved downwards from the peak, after 6
weeks of Lockdown (AIH it did yesterday)

I've argued before that a regional change in the rules is unfair and
unworkable, so the London number alone is IMHO not relevant


We already have regional variations in the rules, and will see more as
schools start going back. It's not only fair and workable, but is
inevitable.

The virus arrived first in London, which you might regard as unsporting
behaviour on its part, but nobody told it your rules. It had longer to
spread in London before the lockdown started, so London got hit harder and
earlier than anywhere else. It had a higher peak of excess deaths, and then
an earlier decline in new cases. The virus has now almost burned out in
London, but not in the north of England or Scotland, which are a few weeks
behind on the curve.

In fact, their curve was more squashed than London's, so they may need a
significantly longer total period of lockdown before the virus runs its
course. Remember, the lockdown isn't a cure; it's just a way of prolonging
the agony, and only justified to avoid overloading the NHS, which it did
very successfully, even in London.


Follow-up:

The number of new cases in London has now fallen to zero in a 24-hour
period:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-cases-london-figures-decline-phe-a4446336.html

"Recliner" wrote in message
...
Recliner wrote:
tim... wrote:


"Recliner" wrote in message
...
tim... wrote:


"Recliner" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 19 May 2020 09:45:14 +0000 (UTC), wrote:

On Tue, 19 May 2020 08:25:34 -0000 (UTC)
Recliner wrote:
The 2m thing is like a religious prohibition: vaguely based on a
sensible

I hadn't thought of it like that, but it certainly matches peoples
behaviour.
Wierdly - assuming my local supermarket is typical - that behaviour
is
forgotten in the aisles. Presumably because its almost impossible to
observe.

Tempting though it may be, most experts say we should not look for
individuals. Superspreading events are determined by a complex mix
of
behavioural and environmental factors.

I wonder if its complex in reality. I imagine its the sort of people
who
wipe
their nose with their fingers then go and then go and touch a dozen
items
in
every shop they visit and hardly buy any of them just leaving them
on
the
shelves nicely infected. Ditto when they touch the handles in buses
and
trains.

In London, cases of coronavirus have dropped dramatically since the
lockdown. The superspreading events that were once spreading the
virus
so
widely have now stopped.

I doubt they've stopped , far more likely IMO is that a significant
proportion
of the population have caught the virus without knowing it and are
now
immune.

I think it's true that in London, most of the mobile population is
now
either immune of not susceptible to the disease. I was in Waitrose
today, and everyone seemed more relaxed. Few of the staff were
bothering to wear the face shields they're supplied with, there was
no
special sanitising of the trolley handles, and people got quite close
to each other in the aisles. There was also almost no queue to get
in.

The few people with or susceptible to the disease in London are in
care homes or hospitals, and the task now is to stop it getting back
into the wider population.

though we are still getting 3,500 new cases every day

You're out by three orders of magnitude. The number of new cases a day
in
London is probably now in single figures:

I mean in the whole country, and it's not the quantum that's the
problem,
it's the fact that it has barely moved downwards from the peak, after 6
weeks of Lockdown (AIH it did yesterday)

I've argued before that a regional change in the rules is unfair and
unworkable, so the London number alone is IMHO not relevant


We already have regional variations in the rules, and will see more as
schools start going back. It's not only fair and workable, but is
inevitable.

The virus arrived first in London, which you might regard as unsporting
behaviour on its part, but nobody told it your rules. It had longer to
spread in London before the lockdown started, so London got hit harder
and
earlier than anywhere else. It had a higher peak of excess deaths, and
then
an earlier decline in new cases. The virus has now almost burned out in
London, but not in the north of England or Scotland, which are a few
weeks
behind on the curve.

In fact, their curve was more squashed than London's, so they may need a
significantly longer total period of lockdown before the virus runs its
course. Remember, the lockdown isn't a cure; it's just a way of
prolonging
the agony, and only justified to avoid overloading the NHS, which it did
very successfully, even in London.


Follow-up:

The number of new cases in London has now fallen to zero in a 24-hour
period:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-cases-london-figures-decline-phe-a4446336.html

and yet, there will be no regional variation in the rules

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ockdown-covid/


tim

On Thu, 21 May 2020 09:10:48 +0100
"tim..." wrote:
"Recliner" wrote in message
The number of new cases in London has now fallen to zero in a 24-hour
period:


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/c...res-decline-ph
e-a4446336.html

and yet, there will be no regional variation in the rules

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...es-regional-va
riation-easing-lockdown-covid/

Given the spinelessness evident at #10 there'll probably be no variation in
the rules for weeks even though other EU countries are now all easing
restrictions far more than us. What did we do to deserve an ineffectual
blustering muppet like Boris in charge at a time like this?

wrote:
On Thu, 21 May 2020 09:10:48 +0100
"tim..." wrote:
"Recliner" wrote in message
The number of new cases in London has now fallen to zero in a 24-hour
period:


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/c...res-decline-ph
e-a4446336.html

and yet, there will be no regional variation in the rules

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...es-regional-va
riation-easing-lockdown-covid/

Given the spinelessness evident at #10 there'll probably be no variation in
the rules for weeks even though other EU countries are now all easing
restrictions far more than us. What did we do to deserve an ineffectual
blustering muppet like Boris in charge at a time like this?

He's changed a lot since his near-death experience. He was previously a
gung-ho risk-taker, but is now a timid, cautious character, at least in
this respect. Being a new father (yet again) probably also makes him a lot
more cautious.

tim... wrote:


"Recliner" wrote in message
...
Recliner wrote:
tim... wrote:


"Recliner" wrote in message
...
tim... wrote:


"Recliner" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 19 May 2020 09:45:14 +0000 (UTC), wrote:

On Tue, 19 May 2020 08:25:34 -0000 (UTC)
Recliner wrote:
The 2m thing is like a religious prohibition: vaguely based on a
sensible

I hadn't thought of it like that, but it certainly matches peoples
behaviour.
Wierdly - assuming my local supermarket is typical - that behaviour
is
forgotten in the aisles. Presumably because its almost impossible to
observe.

Tempting though it may be, most experts say we should not look for
individuals. Superspreading events are determined by a complex mix
of
behavioural and environmental factors.

I wonder if its complex in reality. I imagine its the sort of people
who
wipe
their nose with their fingers then go and then go and touch a dozen
items
in
every shop they visit and hardly buy any of them just leaving them
on
the
shelves nicely infected. Ditto when they touch the handles in buses
and
trains.

In London, cases of coronavirus have dropped dramatically since the
lockdown. The superspreading events that were once spreading the
virus
so
widely have now stopped.

I doubt they've stopped , far more likely IMO is that a significant
proportion
of the population have caught the virus without knowing it and are
now
immune.

I think it's true that in London, most of the mobile population is
now
either immune of not susceptible to the disease. I was in Waitrose
today, and everyone seemed more relaxed. Few of the staff were
bothering to wear the face shields they're supplied with, there was
no
special sanitising of the trolley handles, and people got quite close
to each other in the aisles. There was also almost no queue to get
in.

The few people with or susceptible to the disease in London are in
care homes or hospitals, and the task now is to stop it getting back
into the wider population.

though we are still getting 3,500 new cases every day

You're out by three orders of magnitude. The number of new cases a day
in
London is probably now in single figures:

I mean in the whole country, and it's not the quantum that's the
problem,
it's the fact that it has barely moved downwards from the peak, after 6
weeks of Lockdown (AIH it did yesterday)

I've argued before that a regional change in the rules is unfair and
unworkable, so the London number alone is IMHO not relevant


We already have regional variations in the rules, and will see more as
schools start going back. It's not only fair and workable, but is
inevitable.

The virus arrived first in London, which you might regard as unsporting
behaviour on its part, but nobody told it your rules. It had longer to
spread in London before the lockdown started, so London got hit harder
and
earlier than anywhere else. It had a higher peak of excess deaths, and
then
an earlier decline in new cases. The virus has now almost burned out in
London, but not in the north of England or Scotland, which are a few
weeks
behind on the curve.

In fact, their curve was more squashed than London's, so they may need a
significantly longer total period of lockdown before the virus runs its
course. Remember, the lockdown isn't a cure; it's just a way of
prolonging
the agony, and only justified to avoid overloading the NHS, which it did
very successfully, even in London.


Follow-up:

The number of new cases in London has now fallen to zero in a 24-hour
period:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-cases-london-figures-decline-phe-a4446336.html

and yet, there will be no regional variation in the rules

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ockdown-covid/

What will probably happen is steady easing of the lockdown in England, but
with some areas imposing local restrictions. For examples wearing of masks
in public places and on transport may be mandatory in some places but not
others. Restaurants and pubs might start reopening next month in London,
but laterÂ*in the north. Schools will make individual decisions.

But it's already clear that most people in London think the crisis is
almost over, and want to get back to normal asap. As realisation dawns that
there are almost no new cases in London, people won't tolerate being locked
indoors, unable to get back to many jobs, for no good reason.

Our government's slowness to act killed a lot of people early in the
crisis; now, that same slowness to act is killing a lot of businesses.

On 21/05/2020 10:01, wrote:
On Thu, 21 May 2020 09:10:48 +0100
"tim..." wrote:
"Recliner" wrote in message
The number of new cases in London has now fallen to zero in a 24-hour
period:


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/c...res-decline-ph
e-a4446336.html

and yet, there will be no regional variation in the rules

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...es-regional-va
riation-easing-lockdown-covid/

Given the spinelessness evident at #10 there'll probably be no variation in
the rules for weeks even though other EU countries are now all easing
restrictions far more than us. What did we do to deserve an ineffectual
blustering muppet like Boris in charge at a time like this?


You voted for him.

--
Graeme Wall
This account not read.

wrote:

Given the spinelessness evident at #10 there'll probably be no variation in
the rules for weeks even though other EU countries are now all easing
restrictions far more than us. What did we do to deserve an ineffectual
blustering muppet like Boris in charge at a time like this?



Voted for Brexit.


GH

On Thu, 21 May 2020 09:55:52 -0000 (UTC)
Recliner wrote:
wrote:
On Thu, 21 May 2020 09:10:48 +0100
"tim..." wrote:
"Recliner" wrote in message
The number of new cases in London has now fallen to zero in a 24-hour
period:



https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/c...res-decline-ph

e-a4446336.html

and yet, there will be no regional variation in the rules


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...es-regional-va

riation-easing-lockdown-covid/

Given the spinelessness evident at #10 there'll probably be no variation in
the rules for weeks even though other EU countries are now all easing
restrictions far more than us. What did we do to deserve an ineffectual
blustering muppet like Boris in charge at a time like this?

He's changed a lot since his near-death experience. He was previously a
gung-ho risk-taker, but is now a timid, cautious character, at least in
this respect. Being a new father (yet again) probably also makes him a lot
more cautious.

Thats probably true, but he needs to snap out of it and realise the policies
are now doing far more damage than the virus. There was some (probably
exaggerated) figure of 7 million doctor and hospital appointments backlog.
Even if its only 1 million thats a lot of people with potentially serious
problems not having them sorted. And god knows how many cancer patients are
or will soon be dead due to the NHS focusing on covid.

On Thu, 21 May 2020 17:35:57 +0100
Graeme Wall wrote:
On 21/05/2020 10:01, wrote:
On Thu, 21 May 2020 09:10:48 +0100
"tim..." wrote:
"Recliner" wrote in message
The number of new cases in London has now fallen to zero in a 24-hour
period:



https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/c...res-decline-ph

e-a4446336.html

and yet, there will be no regional variation in the rules


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...es-regional-va

riation-easing-lockdown-covid/

Given the spinelessness evident at #10 there'll probably be no variation in
the rules for weeks even though other EU countries are now all easing
restrictions far more than us. What did we do to deserve an ineffectual
blustering muppet like Boris in charge at a time like this?


You voted for him.

I suspect most people didn't vote for Boris, they voted against Corbyn. I had
no illusions about Boris being useless - he was mayor here for 8 years and
achieved bugger all in that time except some overpriced badly designed buses
and closing tube ticket offices against advice - but he was a lot less risky
proposition than the marxist or the arrogant Jo Swinson.