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-   -   2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?) (https://www.londonbanter.co.uk/london-transport/3236-2-more-likely-london-bombs.html)

Roland Perry July 12th 05 04:11 PM

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 
In message .com, at
08:47:17 on Tue, 12 Jul 2005, remarked:
The bus was headed the other way, and there's a 45 minute gap. Why would
he want to go back to Euston (Sq) having left the last bomb on the
Piccadilly, anyway? That means he was retracing his steps to the scene
of the earlier crime (the planting of the two Circle Line bombs).

If he wanted to plant a bomb on a bus there are plenty of them passing
right outside Kings Cross. But that still doesn't explain the 45
minutes.


The theory I heard was he picked that bus because it would arrive at
KXSP and go off while people were exiting the station. However, the bus
was detoured so it went off on a side street.


So why plan on the last bomb going off an hour after the first? The area
would be cleared of people long before that. And why pick a bus that was
heading in exactly the opposite direction?
--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry July 12th 05 04:22 PM

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 
In message . com, at
08:54:40 on Tue, 12 Jul 2005, remarked:
If they were both stopped you might not have time to
plant bomb one, cross the platform and plant bomb two before the doors
closed.


So perhaps the wrong question was asked? If the question was "how long
before any train leaves in the opposite direction" then 2-3 minutes
would be a sensible answer.

The first two bombs were in the middle of the trains (3rd and 2nd car)
so I doubt anyone was hanging out at the end of the platform.


Which cars exactly? If it was (say) 3rd and 5th [or 2nd and 6th], then
that would suggest the same position on the platform.


according to BBC eastbound was 2nd car and westbound was also 2nd car,
although the police said floor of 3rd car.


So not in the same place "across" the island platform. To place one on a
2nd car and then the other on a second car would mean you'd have to
cross the island and then walk three or four cars along.

As an addition piece of information: the only access to the platforms
from the outside world is roughly in the centre of the train, because
the "island" is very large (with a booking office and other things in
the middle) and the way it's laid out you have to go through a ticket
barrier that's about halfway down, and between, the platforms. Just to
complicate things, you exit [but not enter] through barriers at the
eastern end of the island.

Is it something relatively common? If it is
then waiting for such an occurance to start the process would minimize
the time planting the first two bombs and gives you as much as 10
minutes before you have to be at the Picadilly Line.

I would expect it to be pretty random. You might find the two trains
there, or you might easily have to wait 150% of the published interval.

I agree, that would be why I suggest showing up around 8:30 or so and
waiting. If you have trains every 4 minutes and a 1 in 5 chance of
this happening,


I think we have pretty much established that the original question was
wrong.

you will certainly catch a break before 9:00


And will have blown yourself up by 8.51 ? (If all the bombs had fuses
preset to that time).


I thought we were talking statistically here. If you have 5 to 7
trains passing in a given direction over the course of half an hour and
a 1 in 5 chance that you will have trains in opposite directions
converging on the platform, then at SOME POINT during the half hour you
are virtually guaranteed of this happening at least once.


There are more trains than that if you allow the use of Metropolitan and
Hammersmith/City trains as well as Circle. They all share the same pair
of platforms. As for the statistics, then if you want strictly *Circle*
line trains, then sod's law says it may never happen. But if you want
*any* trains, it will be happening every few minutes.

Although I'm not sure *why* the trains have to leave in opposite
directions at the same time for the bomber's plan to succeed. Perhaps
you can explain why you think this is the case. Also, whether or not the
timers were set to be 8.50 *before* the bomber knew which trains they
were going to be put on.

Given the time of detonation and the relative distances from KXSP, it
looks like that convergence would have to occur around 8:38 to 8:40


Working backwards, that seems to make sense. But would it have mattered
if one of the trains had been 3 minutes closer or further away at 8.50?
--
Roland Perry

Peter Vos July 12th 05 04:48 PM

Police say 4 (was 2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 
They are claiming 4 guys based on CCTV ... which is odd...why have 4
when you are going to do 3 bombs in the Underground? Why have a guy in
the Underground who will be blowing up a bus later?


Paul Terry July 12th 05 05:18 PM

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 
In message m, Roland
Perry writes

So why plan on the last bomb going off an hour after the first? The
area would be cleared of people long before that. And why pick a bus
that was heading in exactly the opposite direction?


The No.30 bus was running from Marble Arch to Hackney Wick (not the
other way round, as initially reported).

It would therefore normally have gone directly from Euston to King's
Cross. However, the police were directing all eastbound traffic away
from King's Cross - hence the reason why the bus ended up at Tavistock
Square.

It has been suggested that the increasing agitation of the suspected
bomber (reported by several people) was because either he knew the
device was about to explode when he was nowhere near the target he
intended (i.e. the rescue operation at KX).

--
Paul Terry

Dave Hillam July 12th 05 05:32 PM

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 
Ed Lake wrote in uk.transport.london on Tue, 12 Jul 2005 09:51:13
-0500 :

Colin Rosenstiel wrote:

He couldn't have placed a bomb under any C stock or 73ts seat. Look at the
stocks. It can't be done. But there is plenty of space by doors where bags
would likely not be noticed.


Great! Thanks! I appreciate being corrected with a better idea. The
space by the doors makes it EASIER for someone to place a bomb and then
leave the train before the doors close.


IME quite a lot of people prefer to congregate by the doors, on the
basis that they believe they'll be able to get off quicker at their
stop. Once the train has filled (which is generally the case by the
time a westbound Picc line service gets to KX) anyone trying to use
this area to place a bag or package will run the risk of being blocked
by someone already there, and I think it would be difficult to do this
in one move at one station.

--
Dave Hillam
"Then old Nobodaddy aloft, Farted & belchd & coughd
And said: I love hanging & drawing & quartering
Every bit as well as war & slaughtering"

Roland Perry July 12th 05 06:23 PM

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 
In message , at 18:18:44 on Tue, 12 Jul
2005, Paul Terry remarked:
The No.30 bus was running from Marble Arch to Hackney Wick (not the
other way round, as initially reported).


The "fog of war" seems to be alive and well...

(Meanwhile, the BBC is now reporting that four suicide bombers have been
identified).
--
Roland Perry

Colin Rosenstiel July 12th 05 08:31 PM

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 
In article m,
(Roland Perry) wrote:

according to BBC eastbound was 2nd car and westbound was also 2nd car,
although the police said floor of 3rd car.


So not in the same place "across" the island platform. To place one on
a 2nd car and then the other on a second car would mean you'd have to
cross the island and then walk three or four cars along.


A factor not to ignore is that the are between the platforms isn't all
open at King's Cross so not exactly cross-platform at the East end of the
Met platforms.

But this is all academic if, as the police have said today, the explosions
were all caused by suicide bombers.

--
Colin Rosenstiel

Hurt July 12th 05 09:40 PM

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 

I agree that it could be "anyone not just jihadists". That's what first
intrigued me about all this. I saw TV reports which said that area of
London has a large Muslim population. If true, that can be viewed in
two ways: the culprit was a Muslim from the area OR the culprit knew the
area had a large Muslim population and knew they would get the blame.


The culprit or culprits may also have stalked (shadowed) individual
Muslims known to ride a particular schedule. No doubt this bombing was
rehearsed to the minute many times before it was implemented, why not
include a desirable scapegoat. It all comes down to motive though.
Who had the most to gain, or not lose?


Colin Rosenstiel July 12th 05 09:40 PM

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 
In article , (Ed Lake)
wrote:

It was NOT held by a suicide bomber.


A theory which now appears not to be valid.

--
Colin Rosenstiel

Clive D. W. Feather July 13th 05 05:37 AM

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)
 
In article .com,
Peter Vos writes
I saw a post saying the KX stop is the only stop on the Circle Line
where trains in both directions are separated by an central island
platform.


This is wrong. Gloucester Road and South Kensington also meet this
description. In addition, Edgware Road and Aldgate have two island
platforms and Circle line trains use the outermost faces (usually but
not required at the former, required at the latter).

Outer Rail trains also have platforms on the right at Tower Hill and
Mansion House.

The question I have is how far would you have to travel in either
direction from KX before the doors that open at KX would be used again?


Edgware Road (see above) and Aldgate.

Would you get as far as Edgware and Liverpool?


No. Circle Line trains don't go to either.

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org
Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work:
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