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#11
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Clive D. W. Feather wrote:
In article .com, Peter Vos writes If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is just too complicated. Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In practice, they're 2 minutes apart throughout the peak hours. At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross the two directions are separated by an island platform. If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would solve the matter. [...] The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes" apart. You both appear to be assuming that trains 204 and 216 were targetted and timing is essential. Much more likely is that two random trains on that part of the Circle were targeted. They come along every couple of minutes, after all. The bomb on train 204 exploded just before the point where one third or so of the trains diverge; that on 216 shortly after the point where 40% or so diverge. Provided that, on the westbound, you avoid the visually distinctive Metropolitan Line trains, any train will do. I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. He may even have practiced planting the bombs during that hour and getting off again(without actually leaving anything behind - or maybe even leaving some innocent package behind to see if anyone stopped him.) Ed anthraxinvestigation.com |
#12
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![]() Clive D. W. Feather wrote: In article .com, Peter Vos writes If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is just too complicated. Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In practice, they're 2 minutes apart throughout the peak hours. At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross the two directions are separated by an island platform. Thanks for clarifying, I have been saying Euston as shorthand for Euston Square.... If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would solve the matter. [...] The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes" apart. You both appear to be assuming that trains 204 and 216 were targetted and timing is essential. Much more likely is that two random trains on that part of the Circle were targeted. They come along every couple of minutes, after all. The bomb on train 204 exploded just before the point where one third or so of the trains diverge; that on 216 shortly after the point where 40% or so diverge. Provided that, on the westbound, you avoid the visually distinctive Metropolitan Line trains, any train will do. I wasn't assuming these had any special significance. I was just accepting the report that those were the trains blown up and working back from there. Given the KX setup it is sounding more and more likely the bombs were just dropped on trains at KX and the perp walked. Even with a more stringent scenario requiring hopping on and off trains it appears one guy could have done it. Take out the shuttling and one guy definitely could do it. The problem with this is that dramatically decreases the likelihood of finding the guy. If he is as bright as Kaczynski they may never find him. The Beltway Snipers were only found because someone eventually keyed in to the fact their car kept showing up around shootings. If it is a loner, one scenario might be for him to surface periodically between now and the Olympics, blow up a few things and disappear. This could go on for a long time. -- Clive D.W. Feather | Home: Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work: Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is: |
#13
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![]() Ed Lake wrote: Clive D. W. Feather wrote: In article .com, Peter Vos writes If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is just too complicated. Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In practice, they're 2 minutes apart throughout the peak hours. At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross the two directions are separated by an island platform. If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would solve the matter. [...] The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes" apart. You both appear to be assuming that trains 204 and 216 were targetted and timing is essential. Much more likely is that two random trains on that part of the Circle were targeted. They come along every couple of minutes, after all. The bomb on train 204 exploded just before the point where one third or so of the trains diverge; that on 216 shortly after the point where 40% or so diverge. Provided that, on the westbound, you avoid the visually distinctive Metropolitan Line trains, any train will do. I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. He may even have practiced planting the bombs during that hour and getting off again(without actually leaving anything behind - or maybe even leaving some innocent package behind to see if anyone stopped him.) I was basically making the same assumption. I threw in the shuttling between stations to see if the lone bomber idea fell apart. That scenario strains credulity, but is clearly possible. If it really is a lone bomber, I expect we will see him periodically. If he is doing this based on experience, he probably has also scoped out the cameras and knows how to avoid or confound them as well. Ed anthraxinvestigation.com |
#14
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Ed Lake wrote:
I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted, which is not uncommon. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift* (elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up the elevator") is an absurd assumption. -- Richard J. (to e-mail me, swap uk and yon in address) |
#15
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Richard - too true.
Anyone who lives in London knows that your regular tube journey - can take 30mins to 45mins with no obvious problems (50% variance is not uncommon). Trains are not that punctual - signal faults, flooding person under the train are daily occurances. Esp Picaddily, circle and central. King's cross is packed at rush hour, and is quite a walk between the circle and pica/victoria lines. Don't think you can plan this sort of thing.. Richard J. wrote: Ed Lake wrote: I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted, which is not uncommon. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift* (elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up the elevator") is an absurd assumption. -- Richard J. (to e-mail me, swap uk and yon in address) |
#16
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On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 22:19:53 GMT, "Richard J."
wrote: Ed Lake wrote: I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted, which is not uncommon. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift* (elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up the elevator") is an absurd assumption. This is the same guy who has repeatedly suggested that the bombs were placed under seats. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd never been on an Underground train in his life. In any case it's obvious he has no idea what he's talking about. |
#17
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#18
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#19
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#20
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![]() asdf wrote: On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 22:19:53 GMT, "Richard J." wrote: Ed Lake wrote: I'm only assuming that the culprit is familiar with the way things happen at King's Cross. I'm assuming that he's gotten off the eastbound Circle line at the same time every weekday for years and knows that a westbound train arrives at the other side of the platform moments later. Moments later? Meaning just a few seconds? No, it will in practice be anything from 0 to 2 minutes, or longer if the service is disrupted, which is not uncommon. He also knows that as he's going up the elevator, a southbound Picadilly Line train arrives at an upper level. He's not going by any specific schedule. He's going by his EXPERIENCE with what happens at King's Cross. Clearly *you* don't have any relevant experience of how LU operates in practice. Apart from the fact that you don't go *up* in a *lift* (elevator) to the Piccadilly at King's Cross, the idea that a Piccadilly train arrives at precisely the same time every day ("as he's going up the elevator") is an absurd assumption. This is the same guy who has repeatedly suggested that the bombs were placed under seats. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd never been on an Underground train in his life. In any case it's obvious he has no idea what he's talking about. Actually I think you have people confused here. I'm the guy who assumed that it was under a seat or out of the way. I made it clear that was an assumption and posted it here because I don't ride the tube and folks here actuallly work on it. The point of the scenario was to determine if it was possible for one person to physically get to all three trains during rush hour in a tight enough window to explain the explosions. The smallest time window I could come up with was about 12 minutes total elapsed time assuming the last bomb was placed on the Piccadilly Line at KX between 8:49 and 8:50 I am assuming it is physically possible to go from KX to Euston Sq. and back in 8 to 5 minutes. Is that not possible? I am also assuming it is physically possible to get from the Circle Line to the Piccadilly Line platform in 3 to 5 minutes. Is that not possible? If those numbers are possible, then you can't rule out one person doing this. I am not saying this is what actually happened. But what is clear is that two people could easily have done this. |
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