London Banter - 2 is more likely (was London bombs

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2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)

The trains affected were the following:
204 eastbound between Liverpool Street and Aldgate.
216 westbound at Edgware Road.
311 southbound between King's Cross St. Pancras and Russell Square.

If one guy did all three bombings, then the Russell Street bomb would
have been placed last at KX station.

Assumption: The Circle Line bombs were placed under a seat while the
perp rode the train for one stop before getting off. This would be
least likely to cause suspicion. The Picadilly Line bomb was dropped
by the front door and doesn't require the perp to stay on board. It
doesn't travel far enough to matter if people get suspicious.

Given the time from KX to Liverpool (8 min), and KX to Edgware (8 min)
you can't have one guy plant both bombs even if he only rides between
KX and Euston (2 min) because it would take at least 5 minutes for you
to do the round trip between Euston and KX (ride 2 min to Euston wait 1
minute for a train and ride 2min to KX).

Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards
the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards
KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216
left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates
earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first.

Suggests: two guys traveling in opposite directions.

The eastbound guy gets off at Farringdon and is available to catch the
bus. The westbound guy gets off at Euston, turns around and heads back
towards KX. He could easily have arrived there around 8:45. That means
you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform
to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform.

Questions:
Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3
minutes at a brisk walk? If yes.... you don't need more than 2 guys.

Ed Lake wrote:
Ed Lake wrote:

Ed Lake wrote:

Evidence indicating that the London bombs were the work of a SINGLE
individual seems to grow.

Two bombs were on the Circle Line, one on an eastbound train going
from King's Cross toward Liverpool Station, one on a westbound train
going from King's Cross toward Edgeware Station, and one on a
southbound train of the Picadilly line going from King's Cross toward
Russell Square.

It appears that after planting the three bombs at King's Cross, the
bomber then exited King's Cross Station and got onto a southbound bus,
where he left the final bomb under a seat in the nearly empty bag he'd
used. He then got off.

There were only 4 bombs, weighing a total of less than 40 pounds.
That can easily be carried by a single person.

The reports of unexploded bombs are being denied. Police found two
suspicious packages, and they blew up at least one of them, but
there's no evidence either package contained a bomb.

At 8.51, a Circle Line train heading into Liverpool Street station,
the huge complex which acts as the confluence for a number of
underground lines as well as overground lines from north and east
London, carrying commuters in and out of the City, was rocked by a
huge explosion.

Within a few minutes, at 8.56, the underground was rocked by a
second blast, a few kilometres to the north-west, where the southbound
Piccadilly Line sweeps in from north London.

there was a third explosion, at 9.17am and several kilometres to
the west, at Edgware Road station, this time on another Circle Line
train heading west.

Source: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?...ectID=10334959

Four bombs weighing a total of less than 10 pounds each, all coming
from a central place, all detonated by TIMERS? That really smells of
the work of a single individual.

But I suppose plenty will find conspiracies somewhere in all this.

Ed
anthraxinvestigation.com

The bus is going to be the key. Did he wait at King's Cross until the
panic started before he boarded the bus? Or did he get on the bus
immediately and it just took 40 minutes or so to get to the right spot?
Either way, it seems he set the final bomb to go off when the bus was
full of people coming out of the tube stations.

It doesn't look like it would take very long for a bus to get from
King's Cross to Russell Square. The culprit probably waited around
King's Cross before getting on a bus. And he was probably one of the
first people on the bus, since he'd want a nearly empty bus so no one
would see when he put the bag under the seat.

If this is true, based upon the times when various vehicles left King's
Cross, an expert could probably tell where the individual was at almost
every minute during the entire time period. If there are any
surveillance cameras about, you could almost say he'd pass camera 123 at
8:42 a.m., camera 131 at 8:44 a.m., camera 419 at 9:15 a.m., etc.

This is the most interesting crime I've seen since the anthrax attacks.

Ed
anthraxinvestigation.com

I've done some further research, and it appears the culprit didn't wait
around King's Cross after planting the bombs on the trains, he walked to
Euston Station. It's less than a half mile away.

The Number 30 bus that blew up was going from Euston to King's Cross.

Here's the bus route and schedule for Number 30 bus:
http://www.londonbusroutes.net/times/030.pdf

At the time of the explosion, there'd be a bus about every 6 to 8
minutes going from Euston Station to King's Cross and another bus about
every 10 minutes going in the other direction from King's Cross to
Euston Station.

The bomb was on the westbound bus going from Euston to King's Cross, but
because of all the people coming out of the subways, it was diverted
down Woburn Place to Tavistock where the bomb went off.

It looks to me like the bomber expected the bus to be at King's Cross at
the time the bomb went off. But it was diverted. He evidently expected
people to be coming out of King's Cross Station because of the earlier
bombs, and then to have another go off in front of them when they got to
the surface.

The more I research this, the more it seems like the work of one man - a
very cunning man.

Ed
anthraxinvestigation.com

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)

In article .com,
Peter Vos writes
Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards
the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards
KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216
left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates
earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first.

It doesn't work like that.

Trains 201 to 207 run clockwise round the Circle. They should be in
order - that is, if you stay on one platform you should see 201 arrive,
then 202 (perhaps with non-Circle trains between), then 203, and so on.
They originate from various places in the 05:00 to 06:00 timescale. They
don't start from the depot in numerical order; rather, they will have
starting times and initial moves to get them into order.

Trains 211 to 217 run anti-clockwise in the same way.

[Note 2*0*x for the *O*uter track and 2*1*x for the *I*nner track.]

That means
you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform
to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform.

Questions:
Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3
minutes at a brisk walk?

I believe so, though I've lost track of which passageways are open at
the moment.

The south end of the Piccadilly platforms are nearest the bottom of the
escalators (also true for the Northern and Victoria, oddly enough).

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org
Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work:
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)

Clive D. W. Feather wrote:
In article .com,
Peter Vos writes
Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards
the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards
KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216
left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates
earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first.

It doesn't work like that.

Trains 201 to 207 run clockwise round the Circle. They should be in
order - that is, if you stay on one platform you should see 201 arrive,
then 202 (perhaps with non-Circle trains between), then 203, and so on.
They originate from various places in the 05:00 to 06:00 timescale. They
don't start from the depot in numerical order; rather, they will have
starting times and initial moves to get them into order.

Trains 211 to 217 run anti-clockwise in the same way.

[Note 2*0*x for the *O*uter track and 2*1*x for the *I*nner track.]

This is exactly the level of detail I figured people in this group
would have. If you allow for about a minute slack time so things are
not exactly simultaneous, then here's a potential timeline starting
with the 216:

8:38 leave KX on 216, drop bomb with 12 minute delay
8:40 get off at Euston
8:42 get on 204 and drop bomb with 10 minute delay
8:44 arrive KX and get off.
8:49 drop bomb on Picadilly Line without getting on.

The current scenario has a bit of slack in it, which I think is
critical for something this tightly timed. The weakest link is making
the connection at Euston. If you are delayed making the connection at
Euston, the 204 bomb would go off closer to Moorgate which would not be
too big a deal. The big risk is you might miss the Picadilly Line
connection and be stuck in KX with a ticking time bomb. However, in
this version you actually have MORE time to get between the two lines.
You can also buffer things a bit by assuming the first available
Picadilly train (in either direction) will be targeted. In other
words, you could expand the down time at Euston by 2 minutes and still
have things work out more or less.

So it looks like one guy *is* possible. However, I still favor two
because that would dramatically improve the chances of success.

Someone commented they didn't think the seats on C stock had space
beneath them. I am assuming you have to plant the bombs on the Circle
Lines because just dropping them leaves too much time and too many
stops for suspicion and possible removal to a platform.

That means
you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform
to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform.

Questions:
Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3
minutes at a brisk walk?

I believe so, though I've lost track of which passageways are open at
the moment.

The south end of the Piccadilly platforms are nearest the bottom of the
escalators (also true for the Northern and Victoria, oddly enough).

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org
Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work:
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)

Peter Vos wrote:

Ed Lake wrote:

wrote:

Clive D. W. Feather wrote:

In article .com,
Peter Vos writes

Say you start at 8:40 set three timers for 11 minutes ... ride towards
the closest stop which is Euston, get off at 8:42, ride back towards
KX, get off at 8:45. The 204 would be close to Moorgate when the 216
left Edgware. Given the numbering, it is likely the 204 originates
earlier than the 216 so you would need to be on that train first.

It doesn't work like that.

Trains 201 to 207 run clockwise round the Circle. They should be in
order - that is, if you stay on one platform you should see 201 arrive,
then 202 (perhaps with non-Circle trains between), then 203, and so on.
They originate from various places in the 05:00 to 06:00 timescale. They
don't start from the depot in numerical order; rather, they will have
starting times and initial moves to get them into order.

Trains 211 to 217 run anti-clockwise in the same way.

[Note 2*0*x for the *O*uter track and 2*1*x for the *I*nner track.]

This is exactly the level of detail I figured people in this group
would have. If you allow for about a minute slack time so things are
not exactly simultaneous, then here's a potential timeline starting
with the 216:

8:38 leave KX on 216, drop bomb with 12 minute delay
8:40 get off at Euston
8:42 get on 204 and drop bomb with 10 minute delay
8:44 arrive KX and get off.
8:49 drop bomb on Picadilly Line without getting on.

The current scenario has a bit of slack in it, which I think is
critical for something this tightly timed. The weakest link is making
the connection at Euston. If you are delayed making the connection at
Euston, the 204 bomb would go off closer to Moorgate which would not be
too big a deal. The big risk is you might miss the Picadilly Line
connection and be stuck in KX with a ticking time bomb. However, in
this version you actually have MORE time to get between the two lines.
You can also buffer things a bit by assuming the first available
Picadilly train (in either direction) will be targeted. In other
words, you could expand the down time at Euston by 2 minutes and still
have things work out more or less.

So it looks like one guy *is* possible. However, I still favor two
because that would dramatically improve the chances of success.

Actually, it would dramatically DECREASE the chances of success. You
point out all the things that could go wrong. It depends upon catching
a train at another station and riding back to plant the third bomb. And
it involves riding in a train headed in the direction where you know a
bomb is going to go off.

The bomb will go off after you have left. Riding the train one stop is
a good way not to draw attention to a package that is left under a
seat.

If you agree that the culprit MUST have planted the bomb on the
Picadilly line by just getting and off the train while it was in the
station, why can't he do the same with the second Circle Line train?

The first two will be on a train for about ten minutes and several
stops. If they are unattended you don't want to draw attention to them
because someone might decide to play hero and chuck it off the train.
The last one can be a throw on because they won't have time to do
anything about it. Also you want to be sure you can exit the station
when all hell breaks lose. You don't want to get caught on a train
when the system is shut down.

If someone had thrown a bomb onto a train just as the doors were
closing, I think we'd have heard about that. The place would have been
in a panic long BEFORE the bomb exploded. And I think there are ways to
stop the train in an emergency.

If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the
safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get
back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is
just too complicated.

Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of
day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart. In the scenario I laid
out, you could actually have a 4 minute layover at Euston and still
have time to get to the Picadilly Line platform. If you drop the
Picadilly Line bomb at 10:50, that gives you another minute. So for a
total of 12 minutes you have up to 3 minutes of slack time. Picking
the Picadilly Line in this scenario actually builds in additional
buffers because you can pick EITHER trains going westward or eastward.

Maybe, but I just don't see the culprit getting on and STAYING on any
train after planting the first bomb. The objective after planting the
first bomb would be to quickly plant the second and start working your
way to the surface, planting the third on the way up. You do NOT go
somewhere else and then RETURN to a place where you've been before.

To me this all seems to indicate some person who had travelled to King's
Cross hundreds of times and planned the steps out long before he
actually committed the crime.

If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would
solve the matter. That information would tell you if it was possible
for someone to ride to Euston and back in time to plant the Picadilly
Line bomb.

The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing
is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes"
apart. According to people who ride the tube, you could probably get to
the platform in 3 minutes without running. The front of the car (the
southernmost end of the platform) is right near the bottom of the
escalator.

Yes, I saw that posting. It's further evidence that the crime COULD
HAVE been done by one person. He put the Picadilly Line bomb on the
train on his way toward the surface. He simply got off the escalator,
put the bomb on the train, then left and got back on the escalator again
to head to the surface.

He almost certainly had the bomb in his hand and didn't have to take it
out of the bag when he got on the Picadilly Line train. If the bomb was
dark and oblong (the shape of a boxed bottle of liquor) or a color that
matched the walls or floor of the train and ordinary looking, he could
have slipped it under a seat without attracting much attention. And if
he did it immediately after the train arrived, he could exit with the
last of the passengers and he'd look like someone who just got on the
wrong train by accident.

I don't discount the idea of two people, but if the job CAN be done by
one man, then I say it was MOST LIKELY done by one man. Why involve a
second person?

A second person buys you a quite a few benefits. Lookout, failsafe,
distraction if needed, someone to run interference, moral support. To
my thinking the difference between one or two is not terribly
significant because in either case you come back to .... it could be
anyone not just jihadists.

A second person also buys you a lot of risks. There was no need for
lookouts, there was no report of distractions, there was no apparent
need to run interference, and you can never fully trust anyone else
involved in a crime, so moral support isn't as important as keeping the
secret. And the only good way to keep a secret is to have it known by
only one person.

I agree that it could be "anyone not just jihadists". That's what first
intrigued me about all this. I saw TV reports which said that area of
London has a large Muslim population. If true, that can be viewed in
two ways: the culprit was a Muslim from the area OR the culprit knew the
area had a large Muslim population and knew they would get the blame.

I don't want to speculate along those lines, but I'm certainly not
discounting any possibility. That's why I think it's important that the
police consider the idea that this could be the work of one person. If
it was, you can literally compute where he was at almost every moment.

If it is determined that - because of the times the trains arrived or
departed - it could not possibly have been done by one person, THEN you
can start looking at how it could have been done by two people.

If there were two people involved, I would think that they would have
hit two separate areas of London. If the job CAN be done by one person,
then there is simply no reason to involve anyone else.

Ed
anthraxinvestigation.com

Someone commented they didn't think the seats on C stock had space
beneath them. I am assuming you have to plant the bombs on the Circle
Lines because just dropping them leaves too much time and too many
stops for suspicion and possible removal to a platform.

That means
you would need 4 minutes to get from the eastbound Circle Line platform
to the front of the westbound Picadilly line platform.

Questions:
Is that possible without too much trouble? Is it possible to do it in 3
minutes at a brisk walk?

I believe so, though I've lost track of which passageways are open at
the moment.

The south end of the Piccadilly platforms are nearest the bottom of the
escalators (also true for the Northern and Victoria, oddly enough).

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org
Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work:
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)

In article .com,
Peter Vos writes
If the culprit knew the train schedule so well, he'd do things the
safest and easiest way. Taking a train to Euston, then another to get
back to King's Cross so he could plant the bomb on the Picadilly line is
just too complicated.

Not really. Euston is the closest station to KX (2 min) at that time of
day, trains are spaced "2 to 4" minutes apart.

In practice, they're 2 minutes apart throughout the peak hours.

At Euston Square (*NOT* Euston) you have to go up a staircase, over a
bridge, and down another staircase to change trains. At King's Cross the
two directions are separated by an island platform.

If we knew the ACTUAL times the trains arrived at King's Cross, it would
solve the matter.
[...]
The trains start running from various points on the Circle so spacing
is more important than scheduling. The key is the "2 to 4 minutes"
apart.

You both appear to be assuming that trains 204 and 216 were targetted
and timing is essential. Much more likely is that two random trains on
that part of the Circle were targeted. They come along every couple of
minutes, after all. The bomb on train 204 exploded just before the point
where one third or so of the trains diverge; that on 216 shortly after
the point where 40% or so diverge. Provided that, on the westbound, you
avoid the visually distinctive Metropolitan Line trains, any train will
do.

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Tel: +44 20 8495 6138 (work) | Web: http://www.davros.org
Fax: +44 870 051 9937 | Work:
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)

Ed Lake wrote:

If there were two people involved, I would think that they would have
hit two separate areas of London. If the job CAN be done by one person,
then there is simply no reason to involve anyone else.

You may be right, I just think it is wise to avoid getting locked into
any one theory at this point because you can get tunnel vision. That
is exactly what happened with the Beltway Snipers...everyone was so hot
for white box trucks they let the perps car go on more than one
occasion.

I think for now "one maybe two" is a good conservative theory. You
certainly don't need to invoke a grand conspiracy much less try to tie
in Zarqawi... as some reports have suggested.

2 is more likely (was London bombs - the work of ONE man?)

Peter Vos wrote:

Ed Lake wrote:

If there were two people involved, I would think that they would have
hit two separate areas of London. If the job CAN be done by one person,
then there is simply no reason to involve anyone else.

You may be right, I just think it is wise to avoid getting locked into
any one theory at this point because you can get tunnel vision. That
is exactly what happened with the Beltway Snipers...everyone was so hot
for white box trucks they let the perps car go on more than one
occasion.

I think for now "one maybe two" is a good conservative theory. You
certainly don't need to invoke a grand conspiracy much less try to tie
in Zarqawi... as some reports have suggested.

Peter,

I'm not locked into a one man theory. I just feel that IF it could have
been done by one person, then it almost certainly WAS done by one person
and that needs to be checked out as soon as possible.

AND, if it was done by one person, then knowing the times of arrivals of
the various trains would tell you where the culprit was at almost every
moment he was inside King's Cross Station!

That means you can find him on the surveillance camera tapes going from
point A to point B to point C.

If you have more than one person involved, then finding the culprit on
surveillance tapes gets vastly more complicated. So, I would have
people verify that it was not done by a single person before discounting
that idea. That's all I'm saying.

The objective is to get the guy - regardless of whether he's al Qaeda,
IRA, an anti-G8 anarchist or just some lone nut on a crazy mission.

Ed
anthraxinvestigation.com