In message . li, at
11:31:49 on Sun, 14 Mar 2010, Tom Anderson
remarked:
if there's, say, 1 tph from Heathrow total, that means 0.25 tph to
people's actual destinations. Lots more than that is needed.

I think you'd be hard pressed to serve an arc of destinations from
Amsterdam to Madrid with four trains, let alone places further away.

I sort of dream of some sunlit uplands of the future where we have a
proper international service from London, rather than just trains to
Paris, Brussels, and EuroDismal.

I'd quite like it too - but we have to be realistic that the only way to
do this is to use the same hub-and-spoke system that traditional
airlines do. You are never going to get Bristol-Berlin through-trains as
well as a Cambridge-Rome, Glasgow-Nice and a Derby-Amsterdam (etc), even
at 1t-p-day.

I was deliberately vague about Europe because the trains could be
going to all sorts of places - a small number now, but hopefully
more in the future. Perhaps never as many as that airport, in which case

Of course, the airport I mentioned was a small regional one. Lots
more places to try to serve if you are attempting to replace flights
from Heathrow.

Replacing all of them would be impossible - replacing 50% of the actual
flights might be possible, if most of the passengers are going to a
small number of destinations. I have no numbers to suggest that's the
case, but most things are that way, power-law distributions and all that.

Surprisingly enough, the low-cost airlines fly to a large number of
destinations one or twice a day, and seem to exactly fill the planes all
the time! The only exception I can think of quickly is Geneva, where I
have seen almost hourly flights by Easyjet at weekends during the skiing
season.

perhaps HS2 should serve that too.

Apparently it will - East Midlands Interchange will be a a couple of
miles away.

Aha, not in my version of the plan it won't!

Going to build EMI under the airport? There have been some kites flown
about connecting it directly to the rail system.
--
Roland Perry

In message , at 18:19:02 on Sun,
14 Mar 2010, Paul Terry remarked:

Of course, the airport I mentioned was a small regional one. Lots more
places to try to serve if you are attempting to replace flights from
Heathrow.

However, Paris is (by a considerable margin) the most popular
destination from Heathrow, with 60 flights a day (despite Eurostar).

Second most popular are Amsterdam and Dublin (50 flights), after which
comes Frankfurt (40 flights), New York (42 flights), Edinburgh (40
flights), Manchester (36 flights), Brussels (30 flights), Glasgow (28
flights) and Aberdeen (also 28 flights).

Looking at the continental destinations, this emphasises the
hub-and-spoke nature of airline operations. Apart from Brussels (are you
sure of that figure - it seems very high), they are all places where
people routinely catch onwards flights.

But what is really needed to reduce flights from Heathrow is a direct
train service (HS2) to Edinburgh, Manchester, Glasgow and possibly
Aberdeen, since a very large amount of Heathrow's traffic is actually
domestic.

About half of BA's domestic passengers to Heathrow are catching an
onward flight, so you need to make sure the through-ticketing and
baggage is as painless as when flying.
--
Roland Perry

In message , at 20:49:41 on Sun, 14 Mar
2010, tim.... remarked:
For most destinations Brussels is a better connecting point, even if only
because you don't have to change stations

But with 3hr gaps between trains at some times of day, it's not picking
up the traffic.
--
Roland Perry

In message . li, at
11:24:49 on Sun, 14 Mar 2010, Tom Anderson
remarked:
The second thing that's obvious is that we need a high-speed service
from Heathrow to Europe, so we can cut out lots of short-haul
connecting flights.
No, it's not obvious at all.

He's not very clear what these "connecting flights" are, but if it's
short-haul to places like CDG (which isn't served by Eurostar,
although it passes the end of the runway), Amsterdam, Frankfurt, to
get an onward long haul, then you could have the same effect by
regulating prices so it's economic to fly direct from London.

Apologies, i should have been clearer. I was thinking of passengers
arriving at Heathrow from outside Europe, and then heading on to places
in Europe. I understand from this business about Heathrow being a 'hub'
that there is quite a lot of these passengers.

As I hinted above, you need to look carefully at the price model for
flight combinations like that.
--
Roland Perry

In message , at 21:38:35 on Sun, 14 Mar
2010, Roland Perry remarked:
However, Paris is (by a considerable margin) the most popular
destination from Heathrow, with 60 flights a day (despite Eurostar).

Second most popular are Amsterdam and Dublin (50 flights), after which
comes Frankfurt (40 flights), New York (42 flights), Edinburgh (40
flights), Manchester (36 flights), Brussels (30 flights), Glasgow (28
flights) and Aberdeen (also 28 flights).

Looking at the continental destinations, this emphasises the
hub-and-spoke nature of airline operations. Apart from Brussels (are
you sure of that figure - it seems very high), they are all places
where people routinely catch onwards flights.

re Brussels... I make it 11 flights. And a AR8 isn't exactly the biggest
plane in the world.

I think I demand a re-count for the other destinations! (Are you perhaps
being fooled by codeshares - but that only brings LHR-BRU up to 22
"flights"??)

SN 2104 Brussels Airlines 6:50 AM AR8
BA 388 British Airways 6:55 AM 319
SN 2092 Brussels Airlines 8:30 AM AR8
AA 108 American Airlines 8:30 AM 763
BA 392 British Airways 8:55 AM 320
SN 2094 Brussels Airlines 10:50 AM AR8
BA 396 British Airways 12:50 PM 319
UA 938 United Airlines 1:20 PM 777
BA 398 British Airways 3:50 PM 319
BA 404 British Airways 5:40 PM 319
SN 2102 Brussels Airlines 8:15 PM AR8
--
Roland Perry

In message , Roland Perry
writes

re Brussels... I make it 11 flights. And a AR8 isn't exactly the
biggest plane in the world.

I think I demand a re-count for the other destinations! (Are you
perhaps being fooled by codeshares - but that only brings LHR-BRU up to
22 "flights"??)

The figures are from a HACAN report of 2006. I think you're right in
suspecting that they include codeshares - no doubt to bolster their case


However, in general terms, BAA themselves state that the most popular
destinations from Heathrow are Paris, Dublin and New York. (Rather like
deciding the longest bus route in London, a lot of this seems to depend
on how terms are defined, of course).
--
Paul Terry

In message , at 06:25:39 on Mon,
15 Mar 2010, Paul Terry remarked:

re Brussels... I make it 11 flights. And a AR8 isn't exactly the
biggest plane in the world.

I think I demand a re-count for the other destinations! (Are you
perhaps being fooled by codeshares - but that only brings LHR-BRU up
to 22 "flights"??)

The figures are from a HACAN report of 2006. I think you're right in
suspecting that they include codeshares - no doubt to bolster their
case

They are so wrong that all they do is invalidate the argument of anyone
relying upon them.

However, in general terms, BAA themselves state that the most popular
destinations from Heathrow are Paris, Dublin and New York. (Rather like
deciding the longest bus route in London, a lot of this seems to depend
on how terms are defined, of course).

Those are pretty obvious candidates, being the Capitals (or major trade
centres) of the three "closest" partners.
--
Roland Perry

In message , Roland Perry
writes

In message , at 06:25:39 on Mon,
15 Mar 2010, Paul Terry remarked:

The figures are from a HACAN report of 2006. I think you're right in
suspecting that they include codeshares - no doubt to bolster their
case

They are so wrong that all they do is invalidate the argument of anyone
relying upon them.

I wouldn't go that far: numerous other authorities give much the same
list of destinations as the most popular from Heathrow, even though the
precise order depends on the counting system used (just departures, or
departures and arrivals, and whether by number of flights or by
passenger numbers).

The point is that, of the most popular destinations, many are domestic,
hence the need for HS2 to serve Heathrow. Of the rest (and excluding
Dublin and New York that obviously can't be served by rail), a direct or
easy connection to Eurostar would be useful for Paris and Brussels, plus
possibly Amsterdam and Frankfurt. But airline traffic to other European
cities that could instead be potentially reached by rail from Heathrow
is relatively small scale.

--
Paul Terry

In message , at 09:04:03 on Mon,
15 Mar 2010, Paul Terry remarked:

The figures are from a HACAN report of 2006. I think you're right in
suspecting that they include codeshares - no doubt to bolster their
case

They are so wrong that all they do is invalidate the argument of
anyone relying upon them.

I wouldn't go that far:

I would. The only figure I'd previously researched (last time the issue
of E* replacing LHR-BRU flights came up) was overstated by *three*
times.

Therefore I have lost all confidence in the remaining figures (until
someone confirms them in the manner I did for BRU).

numerous other authorities give much the same list of destinations as
the most popular from Heathrow,

I'm not disputing that, but the volume of flights.

even though the precise order depends on the counting system used (just
departures, or departures and arrivals, and whether by number of
flights or by passenger numbers).

"Number of aircraft" would be a good start.

The point is that, of the most popular destinations, many are domestic,
hence the need for HS2 to serve Heathrow.

It's not as simple as that, you have to know where people are going next
- is it another plane, or into Central London. If the former, will the
train adequately replace a flight (guaranteed through booking and
baggae, "CIV-like" delay protection).

Of the rest (and excluding Dublin and New York that obviously can't be
served by rail), a direct or easy connection to Eurostar would be
useful for Paris and Brussels, plus possibly Amsterdam and Frankfurt.

Again, if people are connecting from long-haul onto those flights - see
my comments above.

But airline traffic to other European cities that could instead be
potentially reached by rail from Heathrow is relatively small scale.

Comprehensive passenger figures are published, perhaps it would help if
someone did a summary.
--
Roland Perry

On Mar 12, 4:46*pm, wrote:

Theres more to it than price though. A lot of people don't like flying and
find the whole airport and security experience unpleasent.

You still get the security "experience" with E*, though. And flying
from UK regional airports is mostly *far* nicer than from Thiefrow or
Gatwick.

e.g. this morning, left home 0425, arrived Luton long-term car park
0505ish, short wait for bus, in terminal 0515, checked bag in and
through security, in cafe enjoying breakfast 0525, boarding 0600,
departure around 0630 (slightly late). Tons of time, and a bit of
slack had it been required. And I find the Luton security bods to be
quite friendly.

Neil