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, (Recliner) wrote: wrote: In article , (Mizter T) wrote: On 03/09/2014 14:53, Recliner wrote: On Wed, 03 Sep 2014 13:40:12 +0100, Mizter T wrote: On 02/09/2014 07:57, Recliner wrote: To no-ones's surprise, Boris Island hasn't made the airport expansion short list. Indeed, it's only pressure from Boris that left it on the list for so long at all. So what remains are three options, two for Heathrow expansion, and one for Gatwick. The business vote strongly favours Heathrow, but Gatwick is easier politically. The decision is due after the election, and I wonder which will win? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29026484 Gatwick. Eventually. So why all the procrastination then? The reason they keep deferring the decision is that Heathrow is the only one that makes economic sense, but it's politically very difficult. The only safe time to choose it is right after an election. It's political dynamite! The parties policies on the airports question going into the general election could be interesting - that said, they might well just say 'we'll follow the recommendations of the Airports Commission', when said recommendations (when they arrive) aren't likely to offer such an easy get out of jail free card. Individual candidates might do their own thing anyway. My reckoning is that Heathrow expansion will ultimately just be too politically toxic a path to take (remember the widespread pre-2010 opposition). If a decision was made to expand Heathrow, I wouldn't necessarily consider that the end of the story. A bit like student tuition fees then? Kicked into the long grass by the Labour government with a muddled implementation by the coalition. I reckon a Labour government would expand Heathrow because they don't have enough marginal seats at stake. The Tories have some big troublemakers if they try to do the same. Didn't Zac Goldsmith (Richmond Park) threaten to resign and cause a byelection? And Justine Greening (Putney) blocked it while Transport Secretary and got moved for her pains. Yes, I think you're right. Ironically, therefore, the business lobby that wants Heathrow expansion might actually prefer a Labour victory next year, as that would also make it more likely that we stay in the EU. YMTTICPC! That's also a whole lot more complicated. To get anywhere near winning next year, the Tory party has to find a way of not tearing itself apart over the EU, not helped by Mr Carswell. -- Colin Rosenstiel |
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