wrote:
In article , (Mizter T) wrote:

*Subject:* As predicted, Boris Island sunk
*From:* Mizter T
*Date:* Wed, 03 Sep 2014 15:27:41 +0100

On 03/09/2014 14:53, Recliner wrote:

On Wed, 03 Sep 2014 13:40:12 +0100, Mizter T
wrote:

On 02/09/2014 07:57, Recliner wrote:
To no-ones's surprise, Boris Island hasn't made the airport
expansion short
list. Indeed, it's only pressure from Boris that left it on the
list for so
long at all. So what remains are three options, two for Heathrow
expansion,
and one for Gatwick. The business vote strongly favours Heathrow,
but
Gatwick is easier politically. The decision is due after the
election, and
I wonder which will win?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29026484


Gatwick. Eventually.

So why all the procrastination then? The reason they keep deferring
the decision is that Heathrow is the only one that makes economic
sense, but it's politically very difficult. The only safe time to
choose it is right after an election.


It's political dynamite! The parties policies on the airports
question going into the general election could be interesting - that
said, they might well just say 'we'll follow the recommendations of
the Airports Commission', when said recommendations (when they
arrive) aren't likely to offer such an easy get out of jail free
card. Individual candidates might do their own thing anyway.

My reckoning is that Heathrow expansion will ultimately just be too
politically toxic a path to take (remember the widespread pre-2010
opposition).

If a decision was made to expand Heathrow, I wouldn't necessarily
consider that the end of the story.

A bit like student tuition fees then? Kicked into the long grass by the
Labour government with a muddled implementation by the coalition.

I reckon a Labour government would expand Heathrow because they don't have
enough marginal seats at stake. The Tories have some big troublemakers if
they try to do the same. Didn't Zac Goldsmith (Richmond Park) threaten to
resign and cause a byelection? And Justine Greening (Putney) blocked it
while Transport Secretary and got moved for her pains.

Yes, I think you're right. Ironically, therefore, the business lobby that
wants Heathrow expansion might actually prefer a Labour victory next year,
as that would also make it more likely that we stay in the EU.

In article
,
(Recliner) wrote:

wrote:
In article , (Mizter
T) wrote:

On 03/09/2014 14:53, Recliner wrote:

On Wed, 03 Sep 2014 13:40:12 +0100, Mizter T
wrote:

On 02/09/2014 07:57, Recliner wrote:
To no-ones's surprise, Boris Island hasn't made the airport
expansion short list. Indeed, it's only pressure from Boris that
left it on the list for so long at all. So what remains are three
options, two for Heathrow expansion, and one for Gatwick. The
business vote strongly favours Heathrow, but Gatwick is easier
politically. The decision is due after the election, and I wonder
which will win? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29026484

Gatwick. Eventually.

So why all the procrastination then? The reason they keep deferring
the decision is that Heathrow is the only one that makes economic
sense, but it's politically very difficult. The only safe time to
choose it is right after an election.

It's political dynamite! The parties policies on the airports
question going into the general election could be interesting - that
said, they might well just say 'we'll follow the recommendations of
the Airports Commission', when said recommendations (when they
arrive) aren't likely to offer such an easy get out of jail free
card. Individual candidates might do their own thing anyway.

My reckoning is that Heathrow expansion will ultimately just be too
politically toxic a path to take (remember the widespread pre-2010
opposition).

If a decision was made to expand Heathrow, I wouldn't necessarily
consider that the end of the story.

A bit like student tuition fees then? Kicked into the long grass by
the Labour government with a muddled implementation by the
coalition.

I reckon a Labour government would expand Heathrow because they
don't have enough marginal seats at stake. The Tories have some big
troublemakers if they try to do the same. Didn't Zac Goldsmith
(Richmond Park) threaten to resign and cause a byelection? And
Justine Greening (Putney) blocked it while Transport Secretary and
got moved for her pains.

Yes, I think you're right. Ironically, therefore, the business lobby that
wants Heathrow expansion might actually prefer a Labour victory next year,
as that would also make it more likely that we stay in the EU.

YMTTICPC! That's also a whole lot more complicated. To get anywhere near
winning next year, the Tory party has to find a way of not tearing itself
apart over the EU, not helped by Mr Carswell.

--
Colin Rosenstiel