In message
-septe
mber.org, at 19:46:57 on Thu, 28 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Actually it's some time since it served 3 terminals. It's been 2 now for a
bit.

It went down to two for some time, then back up to three for a transitional
period of a year, and since June last year, has been permanently down to
two terminals.

That's how it's likely to stay for a while, though it's possible that those
two terminals will be merged into one at some stage, as T2 grows and T3 is
demolished. So, eventually, the whole central area could consist of just
one very large terminal, though I'm not clear whether it will all be called
one terminal or two.

"Central terminal" probably.

Further into the future, if a third runway is built, there will be a new
western terminal, which may be adjacent to T5, and share its three
underground stations.

There are only two. Recent poorly-written articles about a "secret
station" are in fact about extra as-yet-unused platforms at the heavy
rail station.
--
Roland Perry

In message
-sept
ember.org, Recliner wrote:
Tube lines have fleets of identical trains, you can't just order a few
more later.

Not always, they don't. Even the Victoria Line used to run a mix of 1967
and 1972 Tube Stock.

But in this case, the 73TS were built while the Heathrow extension was
under construction, and a large enough fleet to cover it was ordered.
Without that extension, the order would have been for a significantly
smaller fleet.

Actually, I don't think so. The order was for 87.5 trains. I reckon that
the extension only needed 4 of those.

Let's do a finger-in-the-air test. It takes about 85 minutes from
Cockfosters to Heathrow Central and 94 to Uxbridge. The last notes I
have say that each of these gets 12 trains per hour in the peak (5
minute spacing). Assume that at each end a train departs as one arrives,
so there's always one at the terminus. That would mean (85+5)*2/5 = 36
trains for the Heathrow branch and (94+5)*2/5 = 40 for Uxbridge
(probably actually 38 or 39 because some terminate at Ruislip). That's
about 75 trains. The rest allow you to thicken the service in the peaks
and provide spares.

Ah, another source says the current service uses 76 trains on Saturdays
and 68 on Sundays.

So the stock order was very probably based on that 12 tph figure.

Hounslow West to Heathrow Central will be 7 or 8 minutes of those 85, so
the extension adds 15 minutes to a round trip. So without it we'd need 3
trains less. Plus a fourth as a margin. QED.

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Mobile: +44 7973 377646 | Web: http://www.davros.org
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

In message , at 20:46:10 on Thu, 28
Apr 2016, Clive D. W. Feather remarked:
I don't believe that absurdly low cost figure. In 1992 terms, the cost of
the full Piccadilly line extension, including the four stations, was
probably well over £250m, maybe closer to £500m.

Rails Through The Clay, which is usually pretty accurate on things,
states that the original Heathrow extension was estimated at 15 million
in 1970, with the final figure given as 30.2 million in 1978. Hounslow
West to Hatton Cross civil engineering was 4 million. Tunnelling on to
Heathrow Central was 2.25 million; the station was another 1.2 million
(those three are all contract prices). The 1973 Tube Stock cost 40.25
million for 87.5 6-car trains. If I've calculated things correctly, the
extension added 4 trains to the requirements for the line (15 minutes
extra running time, 15 tph service at the time), so 1.84 million. Don't
ask me where the rest of the money went.

It went, as previously noted, on works east of the extension to
accommodate the extra train and passenger traffic.

The cost of the extra trains wasn't in the previously cited £26m which
was all civils.

At opening, the fare to central London was 80p.

That's about £6 in today's money.
--
Roland Perry

Clive D. W. Feather wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, Recliner wrote:
I don't believe that absurdly low cost figure. In 1992 terms, the cost of
the full Piccadilly line extension, including the four stations, was
probably well over £250m, maybe closer to £500m.

Rails Through The Clay, which is usually pretty accurate on things,
states that the original Heathrow extension was estimated at 15 million
in 1970, with the final figure given as 30.2 million in 1978. Hounslow
West to Hatton Cross civil engineering was 4 million. Tunnelling on to
Heathrow Central was 2.25 million; the station was another 1.2 million
(those three are all contract prices). The 1973 Tube Stock cost 40.25
million for 87.5 6-car trains. If I've calculated things correctly, the
extension added 4 trains to the requirements for the line (15 minutes
extra running time, 15 tph service at the time), so 1.84 million. Don't
ask me where the rest of the money went.

At opening, the fare to central London was 80p.

The T4 loop was 27 million, of which 10.6 million was tunnelling.

HEX, which was under construction when the book was published, is listed
as 280 million.

Someone else can try converting these to today's money.

The original 1977 extension comes to £169.6m in today's money. The T4 1986
extension comes to £73.9m. So that's £243.5m.

I wonder what the 2008 T5 extension cost? And how much of that was paid by
TfL? I know BAA paid for most of it, but also takes a proportion of the
fares revenue.

Clive D. W. Feather wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, Recliner wrote:
Tube lines have fleets of identical trains, you can't just order a few
more later.

Not always, they don't. Even the Victoria Line used to run a mix of 1967
and 1972 Tube Stock.

But in this case, the 73TS were built while the Heathrow extension was
under construction, and a large enough fleet to cover it was ordered.
Without that extension, the order would have been for a significantly
smaller fleet.

Actually, I don't think so. The order was for 87.5 trains. I reckon that
the extension only needed 4 of those.

I'd guess more, probably six or seven in the peaks. There are four
stations, and there are usually two in the T5 station at any time, and
usually one in the T4 station or at least in the loop. There's another pair
at or near Hatton Cross, and another pair at or near Heathrow Central.



Let's do a finger-in-the-air test. It takes about 85 minutes from
Cockfosters to Heathrow Central and 94 to Uxbridge. The last notes I
have say that each of these gets 12 trains per hour in the peak (5
minute spacing).

Uxbridge doesn't get a 12tph service. It's more like 6tph in the leaks,
less in the off-peak.

Assume that at each end a train departs as one arrives,
so there's always one at the terminus. That would mean (85+5)*2/5 = 36
trains for the Heathrow branch and (94+5)*2/5 = 40 for Uxbridge
(probably actually 38 or 39 because some terminate at Ruislip).

Do any terminate at Ruislip these days? I don't think so. But half of the
trains on that branch terminate at Rayner's Lane.

The Heathrow branches get a much more intense service than Rayner's Lane
branch, which has lost services in favour of the two Heathrow branches.
Probably six or seven of every ten trains running west of Acton Town heads
for one or other of the two Heathrow branches.

That's
about 75 trains. The rest allow you to thicken the service in the peaks
and provide spares.

Ah, another source says the current service uses 76 trains on Saturdays
and 68 on Sundays.

So almost 10% of the service fleet are on the Heathrow extensions at any
time. Allowing for a spare, that means about eight trains in all are needed
for the service west of Hounslow West.


So the stock order was very probably based on that 12 tph figure.

Hounslow West to Heathrow Central will be 7 or 8 minutes of those 85, so
the extension adds 15 minutes to a round trip. So without it we'd need 3
trains less. Plus a fourth as a margin. QED.

No.

As I said, 3/4 trains is an underestimate. It's more like six. You seem
to have forgotten T5, which usually has two trains in the station or
sidings, and T4, which always has a train in the station or loop.

In message
-septe
mber.org, at 20:45:59 on Thu, 28 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
As I said, 3/4 trains is an underestimate. It's more like six. You seem
to have forgotten T5, which usually has two trains in the station or
sidings, and T4, which always has a train in the station or loop.

Do at least *try* to keep up - Clive was talking about the order of 73's
for phase 1.
--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-septe
mber.org, at 19:46:57 on Thu, 28 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Actually it's some time since it served 3 terminals. It's been 2 now for a
bit.

It went down to two for some time, then back up to three for a transitional
period of a year, and since June last year, has been permanently down to
two terminals.

That's how it's likely to stay for a while, though it's possible that those
two terminals will be merged into one at some stage, as T2 grows and T3 is
demolished. So, eventually, the whole central area could consist of just
one very large terminal, though I'm not clear whether it will all be called
one terminal or two.

"Central terminal" probably.

Further into the future, if a third runway is built, there will be a new
western terminal, which may be adjacent to T5, and share its three
underground stations.

There are only two. Recent poorly-written articles about a "secret
station" are in fact about extra as-yet-unused platforms at the heavy
rail station.

When it eventually opens, who knows whether it will be shown as a new GWR
station or a pair of extra platforms at what is currently the HEx station?
The GWR station may be gated, the HEx station isn't, as it's free to the
central station.

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-septe
mber.org, at 20:45:59 on Thu, 28 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
As I said, 3/4 trains is an underestimate. It's more like six. You seem
to have forgotten T5, which usually has two trains in the station or
sidings, and T4, which always has a train in the station or loop.

Do at least *try* to keep up - Clive was talking about the order of 73's
for phase 1.

If you'd actually read my note, you'd have seen that I pointed out that
several more trains have been moved to the Heathrow branches, at the
expense of the Picc service to Uxbridge. Instead, more Met trains serve
Uxbridge.

So, if you want to be consistent, include the cost of the three or four
extra S8 trains which have replaced Picc trains transferred from the
Uxbridge branch to Heathrow. It also demonstrates that, in some cases, you
can buy extra trains of a different size to supplement a stretched fleet.

In message
-septe
mber.org, Recliner wrote:
But in this case, the 73TS were built while the Heathrow extension was
under construction, and a large enough fleet to cover it was ordered.
Without that extension, the order would have been for a significantly
smaller fleet.

Actually, I don't think so. The order was for 87.5 trains. I reckon that
the extension only needed 4 of those.

I'd guess more, probably six or seven in the peaks. There are four
stations, and there are usually two in the T5 station at any time, and
usually one in the T4 station or at least in the loop.

Irrelevant. The stock was ordered in 1971 and delivered starting in
1974. The first plans for the present T4 didn't start until 1977 and the
loop wasn't authorized until 1980. So neither of these would have been
included in the calculations for the order.

There's another pair
at or near Hatton Cross, and another pair at or near Heathrow Central.

That's the four. Actually three; remember that there's no longer a train
sitting for ages at Hounslow West.

Uxbridge doesn't get a 12tph service. It's more like 6tph in the leaks,
less in the off-peak.

The Heathrow branches get a much more intense service than Rayner's Lane
branch, which has lost services in favour of the two Heathrow branches.
Probably six or seven of every ten trains running west of Acton Town heads
for one or other of the two Heathrow branches.

Looking at the evening peak, there's 23 trains leaving Gloucester Road
between 17:00 and 18:00, split 11 to Heathrow (6:5 between the T4 and
T5) and 12 towards Rayners Lane (7 to Uxbridge). There's 23 between
18:00 and 19:00, now split 13:10 (still 7 to Uxbridge). That's not "much
more intense".

That's
about 75 trains. The rest allow you to thicken the service in the peaks
and provide spares.

Ah, another source says the current service uses 76 trains on Saturdays
and 68 on Sundays.

So almost 10% of the service fleet are on the Heathrow extensions at any
time. Allowing for a spare, that means about eight trains in all are needed
for the service west of Hounslow West.

Yes, *but* that wasn't the basis they were ordered on.

So the stock order was very probably based on that 12 tph figure.

As I said, 3/4 trains is an underestimate. It's more like six. You seem
to have forgotten T5, which usually has two trains in the station or
sidings, and T4, which always has a train in the station or loop.

But those other trains have come from better utilization. The stock was
ordered on the assumption of just T123 or *possibly* thinking ahead to a
T4 station on the Stanwell sewage farm site to the south west.

--
Clive D.W. Feather | Home:
Mobile: +44 7973 377646 | Web: http://www.davros.org
Please reply to the Reply-To address, which is:

Clive D. W. Feather wrote:
In message
-septe
mber.org, Recliner wrote:
But in this case, the 73TS were built while the Heathrow extension was
under construction, and a large enough fleet to cover it was ordered.
Without that extension, the order would have been for a significantly
smaller fleet.

Actually, I don't think so. The order was for 87.5 trains. I reckon that
the extension only needed 4 of those.

I'd guess more, probably six or seven in the peaks. There are four
stations, and there are usually two in the T5 station at any time, and
usually one in the T4 station or at least in the loop.

Irrelevant. The stock was ordered in 1971 and delivered starting in
1974. The first plans for the present T4 didn't start until 1977 and the
loop wasn't authorized until 1980. So neither of these would have been
included in the calculations for the order.

There's another pair
at or near Hatton Cross, and another pair at or near Heathrow Central.

That's the four. Actually three; remember that there's no longer a train
sitting for ages at Hounslow West.

Uxbridge doesn't get a 12tph service. It's more like 6tph in the peaks,
less in the off-peak.

The Heathrow branches get a much more intense service than Rayner's Lane
branch, which has lost services in favour of the two Heathrow branches.
Probably six or seven of every ten trains running west of Acton Town heads
for one or other of the two Heathrow branches.

Looking at the evening peak, there's 23 trains leaving Gloucester Road
between 17:00 and 18:00, split 11 to Heathrow (6:5 between the T4 and
T5) and 12 towards Rayners Lane (7 to Uxbridge). There's 23 between
18:00 and 19:00, now split 13:10 (still 7 to Uxbridge). That's not "much
more intense".

Those figures don't sound right.

I've been using the Piccadilly line Rayner's Lane branch since well before
the Heathrow extensions opened, and the service used to be split evenly
between the two western branches. Now, I sometimes have to wait for three
or even four Heathrow trains to pass before a Rayner's Lane or Uxbridge
train shows up. I find it really hard to believe there's any hour in the
day when more trains go to Rayner's Lane/Uxbridge than to Heathrow. My
observation is that at least 60% go to Heathrow.


That's
about 75 trains. The rest allow you to thicken the service in the peaks
and provide spares.

Ah, another source says the current service uses 76 trains on Saturdays
and 68 on Sundays.

So almost 10% of the service fleet are on the Heathrow extensions at any
time. Allowing for a spare, that means about eight trains in all are needed
for the service west of Hounslow West.

Yes, *but* that wasn't the basis they were ordered on.

True, but in effect some of the S stock trains have replaced Piccadilly
trains transferred from the Uxbridge services to Heathrow.


So the stock order was very probably based on that 12 tph figure.

As I said, 3/4 trains is an underestimate. It's more like six. You seem
to have forgotten T5, which usually has two trains in the station or
sidings, and T4, which always has a train in the station or loop.

But those other trains have come from better utilization. The stock was
ordered on the assumption of just T123 or *possibly* thinking ahead to a
T4 station on the Stanwell sewage farm site to the south west.

Yes, agreed, but more trains have been transferred to the Heathrow branches
from Uxbridge, by ordering more S stock trains.