Recliner wrote:

Roland Perry wrote:
In message

-sept ember.org, at 20:27:59 on Tue, 26 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:

I don't believe that absurdly low cost figure. In 1992 terms, the
cost of the full Piccadilly line extension, including the four
stations, was probably well over £250m, maybe closer to £500m.

If you don't accept the contemporaneous figure of £26m build cost
when it opened, then other discussion is futile. Can you come up
with a better figure from the archives - if you do we can resume
talking about the return on investment.

As you well know, it wasn't a contemporaneous figure. It was an
absurdly low estimate, from an aviation magazine, from years earlier,
that was not only many times too small for even the original simple
1977 extension, but also couldn't have taken into account the
eventual scope of the project, with four stations rather than two,
and the extended tunnels to T4 and T5.

£26m is in the right ballpark. According to Hansard from 15 Dec 1976

Mr. Sillars asked the Secretary of State for Transport what is his
latest estimate of the Government share of costs associated with
building the Piccadilly underground line extension to Heathrow Airport.

Mr. William Rodgers - My Department contributed 25 per cent. of the
total expenditure of £18.5 million incurred up to 31st March 1975.
Expenditure since then, estimated at £7.2 million to 31st December
1976, qualifies under the Local Government Act 1974 for transport
supplementary grant at the rate of 70 per cent. The total cost of the
work outstanding at 31st December 1976 is estimated to be £3.6 million.

http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/w...761215_CWA_194

So the total cost was approx 18.5 + 7.2 + 3.6 = 29.3 million.

Using RPI, that would be around £220 million in todays money.

Peter Smyth

Peter Smyth wrote:
Recliner wrote:

Roland Perry wrote:
In message

-sept ember.org, at 20:27:59 on Tue, 26 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:

I don't believe that absurdly low cost figure. In 1992 terms, the
cost of the full Piccadilly line extension, including the four
stations, was probably well over £250m, maybe closer to £500m.

If you don't accept the contemporaneous figure of £26m build cost
when it opened, then other discussion is futile. Can you come up
with a better figure from the archives - if you do we can resume
talking about the return on investment.

As you well know, it wasn't a contemporaneous figure. It was an
absurdly low estimate, from an aviation magazine, from years earlier,
that was not only many times too small for even the original simple
1977 extension, but also couldn't have taken into account the
eventual scope of the project, with four stations rather than two,
and the extended tunnels to T4 and T5.

£26m is in the right ballpark. According to Hansard from 15 Dec 1976

Mr. Sillars asked the Secretary of State for Transport what is his
latest estimate of the Government share of costs associated with
building the Piccadilly underground line extension to Heathrow Airport.

Mr. William Rodgers - My Department contributed 25 per cent. of the
total expenditure of £18.5 million incurred up to 31st March 1975.
Expenditure since then, estimated at £7.2 million to 31st December
1976, qualifies under the Local Government Act 1974 for transport
supplementary grant at the rate of 70 per cent. The total cost of the
work outstanding at 31st December 1976 is estimated to be £3.6 million.

http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/w...761215_CWA_194

So the total cost was approx 18.5 + 7.2 + 3.6 = 29.3 million.

Using RPI, that would be around £220 million in todays money.

Of course that was for the original two-station extension, but it
nevertheless seems very low (and presumably doesn't include anything for
the several additional trains needed for the extension, but presumably
ordered in anticipation).

What was the total cost including the two separate, subsequent extensions
for T4 and T5, the latter also requiring a new grade-separated underground
junction for the T4 and T5 lines to the west of the T123 station? Those
extensions would certainly have much more than doubled the total cost.

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 22:18:44 on Wed, 27 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Mr. William Rodgers - My Department contributed 25 per cent. of the
total expenditure of £18.5 million incurred up to 31st March 1975.
Expenditure since then, estimated at £7.2 million to 31st December
1976, qualifies under the Local Government Act 1974 for transport
supplementary grant at the rate of 70 per cent. The total cost of the
work outstanding at 31st December 1976 is estimated to be £3.6 million.

http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/w...761215_CWA_194

So the total cost was approx 18.5 + 7.2 + 3.6 = 29.3 million.

Using RPI, that would be around £220 million in todays money.

Of course that was for the original two-station extension, but it
nevertheless seems very low (and presumably doesn't include anything for
the several additional trains needed for the extension, but presumably
ordered in anticipation).

Tube lines have fleets of identical trains, you can't just order a few
more later.

What was the total cost including the two separate, subsequent extensions
for T4 and T5, the latter also requiring a new grade-separated underground
junction for the T4 and T5 lines to the west of the T123 station? Those
extensions would certainly have much more than doubled the total cost.

And generate double the fares.
--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 22:18:44 on Wed, 27 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Mr. William Rodgers - My Department contributed 25 per cent. of the
total expenditure of £18.5 million incurred up to 31st March 1975.
Expenditure since then, estimated at £7.2 million to 31st December
1976, qualifies under the Local Government Act 1974 for transport
supplementary grant at the rate of 70 per cent. The total cost of the
work outstanding at 31st December 1976 is estimated to be £3.6 million.

http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/w...761215_CWA_194

So the total cost was approx 18.5 + 7.2 + 3.6 = 29.3 million.

Using RPI, that would be around £220 million in todays money.

Of course that was for the original two-station extension, but it
nevertheless seems very low (and presumably doesn't include anything for
the several additional trains needed for the extension, but presumably
ordered in anticipation).

Tube lines have fleets of identical trains, you can't just order a few
more later.

Do you really think that?

I must be imagining the extra train ordered for the Met to cover the
Watford Junction extension, the extra carriages and trains ordered for the
Jubilee line (even after the original UK factory that assembled them had
closed), the extra carriages and trains ordered for the Overground, the
extra carriages and Pendolino trains ordered for Virgin (also after the UK
assembly plant had closed), the pending order for new Northern line trains
for the Battersea extension, etc.

But in this case, the 73TS were built while the Heathrow extension was
under construction, and a large enough fleet to cover it was ordered.
Without that extension, the order would have been for a significantly
smaller fleet. They were later modified to have more luggage space by the
doors, with fewer seats.


What was the total cost including the two separate, subsequent extensions
for T4 and T5, the latter also requiring a new grade-separated underground
junction for the T4 and T5 lines to the west of the T123 station? Those
extensions would certainly have much more than doubled the total cost.

And generate double the fares.

Probably not double (have you seen how few people use the T4 station?), but
more certainly. But if you're going to estimate that total incremental
revenue (as you did), then you also have to look at the total investment.

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:03:57 on Thu, 28 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:

the 73TS were built while the Heathrow extension was
under construction, and a large enough fleet to cover it was ordered.
Without that extension, the order would have been for a significantly
smaller fleet.


They were later modified to have more luggage space by the
doors, with fewer seats.

What was the total cost including the two separate, subsequent extensions
for T4 and T5, the latter also requiring a new grade-separated underground
junction for the T4 and T5 lines to the west of the T123 station? Those
extensions would certainly have much more than doubled the total cost.

And generate double the fares.

Probably not double (have you seen how few people use the T4 station?), but
more certainly.

Latest annual station usage stats:

T123 7.49m
T5 3.90m
T4 2.35m

But if you're going to estimate that total incremental revenue (as you
did), then you also have to look at the total investment.

To simplify things I've only been looking at the cost, and revenue of,
Phase 1, for most of the thread now.
--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry writes:

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:03:57 on Thu, 28 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Probably not double (have you seen how few people use the T4 station?), but
more certainly.

Latest annual station usage stats:

T123 7.49m
T5 3.90m
T4 2.35m

T123 serves 3 terminals, so assuming it represents equal numbers of
passengers using each terminal, there is not much difference between
2.49m passengers using the station for access to each of terminals 1, 2
and 3 and the 2.35m who use the T4 station.

Graham Murray wrote:
Roland Perry writes:

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:03:57 on Thu, 28 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Probably not double (have you seen how few people use the T4 station?), but
more certainly.

Latest annual station usage stats:

T123 7.49m
T5 3.90m
T4 2.35m

T123 serves 3 terminals, so assuming it represents equal numbers of
passengers using each terminal, there is not much difference between
2.49m passengers using the station for access to each of terminals 1, 2
and 3 and the 2.35m who use the T4 station.

Three terminals? No Heathrow station serves more than two terminals.

Not lately. As a hint, it's no longer called T123 station.

In article ,
(Graham Murray) wrote:

Roland Perry writes:

In message

-septembe
r.org, at 08:03:57 on Thu, 28 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:
Probably not double (have you seen how few people use the T4 station?),
but more certainly.

Latest annual station usage stats:

T123 7.49m
T5 3.90m
T4 2.35m

T123 serves 3 terminals, so assuming it represents equal numbers of
passengers using each terminal, there is not much difference between
2.49m passengers using the station for access to each of terminals 1, 2
and 3 and the 2.35m who use the T4 station.

Actually it's some time since it served 3 terminals. It's been 2 now for a
bit.

--
Colin Rosenstiel

In message , at 18:40:42 on Thu,
28 Apr 2016, Graham Murray remarked:
Probably not double (have you seen how few people use the T4 station?), but
more certainly.

Latest annual station usage stats:

T123 7.49m
T5 3.90m
T4 2.35m

T123 serves 3 terminals,

There's only two at the moment.

so assuming it represents equal numbers of passengers using each
terminal, there is not much difference between 2.49m passengers using
the station for access to each of terminals 1, 2 and 3 and the 2.35m
who use the T4 station.

Not sure what your point is - other than perhaps all the terminals get
quite a lot of passengers.
--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:03:57 on Thu, 28 Apr 2016, Recliner
remarked:

the 73TS were built while the Heathrow extension was
under construction, and a large enough fleet to cover it was ordered.
Without that extension, the order would have been for a significantly
smaller fleet.


They were later modified to have more luggage space by the
doors, with fewer seats.

What was the total cost including the two separate, subsequent extensions
for T4 and T5, the latter also requiring a new grade-separated underground
junction for the T4 and T5 lines to the west of the T123 station? Those
extensions would certainly have much more than doubled the total cost.

And generate double the fares.

Probably not double (have you seen how few people use the T4 station?), but
more certainly.

Latest annual station usage stats:

T123 7.49m
T5 3.90m
T4 2.35m

But if you're going to estimate that total incremental revenue (as you
did), then you also have to look at the total investment.

To simplify things I've only been looking at the cost, and revenue of,
Phase 1, for most of the thread now.

Costs and revenues in current money terms? But I'm not sure you can
separate them anyway: the central station is served by trains using all
three phases of the project.