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#52
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On Fri, 23 Sep 2016 11:01:31 +0100, "tim..."
wrote: "Recliner" wrote in message ... tim... wrote: "Recliner" wrote in message ... tim... wrote: "Recliner" wrote in message ... On Wed, 21 Sep 2016 15:03:48 +0100, David Cantrell wrote: On Mon, Sep 19, 2016 at 03:10:42PM +0100, tim... wrote: spending billions on trying to win a market of millions is just silly Becoming the default choice for taxi services throughout the developed world (which is what they seem to be going for) is not worth mere millions. What they're doing is very similar to what Amazon did early on. They consistently lost money for the first few years, and only occasionally made a profit since. It's only very recently that they started to make vaguely reliable looking profits. Amazon spent those profitless years buying the market. Exactly. People who only look at the deliberate short-term losses are ignoring the bigger picture. It's possible for Amazon to kill the competition and for it not to come back again, leaving you in an unassailable position to reap the rewards of previous work Once Uber has established in a city, competition can continually spring up again meaning that you are continually fighting it. There is no path to killing it off completely (other than making your price so low you don't make a profit). There are always new drivers prepared to compete with you. It's an international business, which benefits from network effects. It's that network focus that makes it vulnerable in each of its local markets. only a percentage of your customers in Delhi are going to be Europeans/Americans taking advantage of already having Uber on their phone when they get off the plane. Many of the potential customers are going to be locals who can switch to local competition if the incentives are there. Also, the long-term game plan is to have self-driving cars, which I don't believe they will be able to achieve. To do this they have to hoover up all of the finance available for "buying" rental cars and taxis. This is an order of magnitude more funding that they currently need. Are the backers really going to put all their eggs in one basket for this operation, I think not. There will be plenty of micro operations of autonomous car pooling that people will want to invest into spread their risk. which need things like highly detailed maps that new competitors won't have: of course they will All of the parties interest in producing autonomous cars are working on (or have a partner who is) such maps, it isn't just self driving taxis who have to find their own way from Waterloo to Kings Cross. All domestically owned cars will have to be able to do it as well. It's a nonsense to suggest that this will be unique to Uber's cars http://www.bloomberg.com/news/featur...month-is06r7on I know but they can afford one city as a trial on the basis of their current funding but scaling it up to 10,000 cities just isn't going to be cheap, and I defy them to find the funding for such. They won't be rolling driverless cabs worldwide in one go. It'll happen in stages, and I wouldn't expect large, complex cities to be among the first to get them. And Uber isn't exactly facing a cash flow crisis: it has around $4bn in the bank. That will pay for mapping quite a few cities. But I'm sure Uber's investors will be keen to seek your expert advice on Uber's prospects, as you appear to know so much more about the company than they do. |
#53
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![]() "Recliner" wrote in message ... On Fri, 23 Sep 2016 11:01:31 +0100, "tim..." wrote: I know but they can afford one city as a trial on the basis of their current funding but scaling it up to 10,000 cities just isn't going to be cheap, and I defy them to find the funding for such. They won't be rolling driverless cabs worldwide in one go. That's my point if, once proven, they don't roll out in London/Paris/Rome/loads of other places at the same time, someone else will The resident of London, Paris, Rome and loads of other places are not going to sit back and wait for Uber to reach them with the benefits of driverless cars, they are going to expect it to arrive today. And there *will* be a PV prepared to fund that. It'll happen in stages, and I wouldn't expect large, complex cities to be among the first to get them. And Uber isn't exactly facing a cash flow crisis: it has around $4bn in the bank. That will pay for mapping quite a few cities. But it won't pay for the capital costs of the taxi fleets for 10,000 cities It will pay for one (100,000 cabs at 40K each - 100,000 is half the number of taxis in London, and I very much doubt that first generation autonomous cars will cost under 40K). But I'm sure Uber's investors will be keen to seek your expert advice on Uber's prospects, as you appear to know so much more about the company than they do. PVs simply do not put all their eggs into one basket (they expect a failure rate of 2 out of 3). funding the autonomous taxi needs of 10,000 cities will require more than the few tech companies currently prepared to fund Uber. It will require the whole capital market. And the whole market is not going to put all its eggs in the Uber basket. And ISTM likely that many of the backers know diddly squat about Uber's prospects, they are backing a punt and hoping for the bigger fool. I have seen many a company, backed by PVs who talked up their prospects in the same way that Uber are, that ultimately failed. Rhetoric is worth nothing. The only difference her is that Uber are bigger (and then the fallacy of sunk cost helps to keep them alive longer than they might otherwise be allowed to prove themselves - this may be enough, it may not) tim |
#54
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![]() On 22/09/2016 16:12, tim... wrote: "Mizter T" wrote: FWIW, Uber runs a v successful referral scheme - I think currently in London it's £15 credit for the new customer, £10 for the referrer (only valid on one journey though). still? I would have thought that with all the banter on social medial Uber needed no more help with finding customers, even in locations where they are new players. There's always new customers to be had, and a little word of mouth encouragement might just help someone who's heard of them to actually install and use the app. There are also occasional non-referral sign-up offers such as this one: https://www.vouchercodes.co.uk/uber.com (£15 credit for new customers.) |
#55
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![]() On 22/09/2016 08:46, Roland Perry wrote: In message , at 19:54:50 on Wed, 21 Sep 2016, Mizter T remarked: Because they aren't subsidising London anymore. It is now a mature market (FSVO). It is (subset of) RoW that gets the subsidies. FWIW, Uber runs a v successful referral scheme - I think currently in London it's £15 credit for the new customer, £10 for the referrer (only valid on one journey though). Is the £25 deducted off the drivers who win those lucky rides, or is it Uber? If the latter that's something which could be called a subsidy (because the drivers are getting 80% of £25, more than the passengers are paying). Uber covers the free credit. Somehow I don't think drivers would be very keen on covering the free credit, given that they aren't going to have a direct relationship with the customer on an ongoing basis! (You cannot request a specific driver via the Uber app.) |
#56
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![]() On 22/09/2016 21:14, Neil Williams wrote: On 2016-09-22 15:16:38 +0000, tim... said: it is cheap and cheerful taxi service FFS, not a limousine service It actually started out as a high-spec limousine type service - UberX, the "cheap and cheerful" version, came later but is winning the battle. What's wrong with a 5 year old Mondeo? Not an awful lot - I do think they are too tight on the spec for UberX. That said, if I get a minicab from my local companies these days it's odds on a Prius or similar. Old, knackered Japanese saloons (which previously seemed the default) seem to be on the out. Certainly the majority of UberX cars in London are Prii, and many of the larger minicab firms also have Prii as a major part of their fleet. The drivers I've spoken to all seem to like them, they seem a pretty reliable vehicle. Prii / Priora / Priores etc! https://www.cars.com/articles/2011/02/plural-of-prius-prii-not-according-to-latin-experts/ |
#57
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On 23 Sep 2016, Mizter T wrote
(in article ): On 22/09/2016 21:14, Neil Williams wrote: On 2016-09-22 15:16:38 +0000, tim... said: it is cheap and cheerful taxi service FFS, not a limousine service It actually started out as a high-spec limousine type service - UberX, the "cheap and cheerful" version, came later but is winning the battle. What's wrong with a 5 year old Mondeo? Not an awful lot - I do think they are too tight on the spec for UberX. That said, if I get a minicab from my local companies these days it's odds on a Prius or similar. Old, knackered Japanese saloons (which previously seemed the default) seem to be on the out. Certainly the majority of UberX cars in London are Prii, and many of the larger minicab firms also have Prii as a major part of their fleet. The drivers I've spoken to all seem to like them, they seem a pretty reliable vehicle. Prii / Priora / Priores etc! https://www.cars.com/articles/2011/0...according-to-l atin-experts/ Prius is an increasingly popular choice for private hire drivers (both Uber and otherwise) and operators for several reasons: - Increasing availability of 3-year-old models with FSH coming off-lease (or should that be off personal contract) - Reliability - Passenger romfort .... and above all, reduced operating costs because of low fuel consumption. One of the local drivers who has picked me up numerous times for trips in / to / from SE London and the City turned up recently in a sparkling new-to-him Prius. A replacement for his previous Skoda Octavia, it had come off-contract a few weeks before. In his first couple of weeks using the Prius he had spent £100 less on fuel compared with the Skoda, for similar hours and mileage. And a friend who has been private hire operator for 20-plus years (not in London) has now standardised on the Prius for company-owned vehicles for similar reasons. He now has more than a dozen, with a couple more on order. Ken |
#58
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![]() On 23/09/2016 18:18, Water musician wrote: On 23 Sep 2016, Mizter T wrote [...] That said, if I get a minicab from my local companies these days it's odds on a Prius or similar. Old, knackered Japanese saloons (which previously seemed the default) seem to be on the out. Certainly the majority of UberX cars in London are Prii, and many of the larger minicab firms also have Prii as a major part of their fleet. The drivers I've spoken to all seem to like them, they seem a pretty reliable vehicle. Prii / Priora / Priores etc! https://www.cars.com/articles/2011/02/plural-of-prius-prii-not-according-to-latin-experts/ Prius is an increasingly popular choice for private hire drivers (both Uber and otherwise) and operators for several reasons: - Increasing availability of 3-year-old models with FSH coming off-lease (or should that be off personal contract) - Reliability - Passenger romfort ... and above all, reduced operating costs because of low fuel consumption. One of the local drivers who has picked me up numerous times for trips in / to / from SE London and the City turned up recently in a sparkling new-to-him Prius. A replacement for his previous Skoda Octavia, it had come off-contract a few weeks before. In his first couple of weeks using the Prius he had spent £100 less on fuel compared with the Skoda, for similar hours and mileage. And a friend who has been private hire operator for 20-plus years (not in London) has now standardised on the Prius for company-owned vehicles for similar reasons. He now has more than a dozen, with a couple more on order. Thanks Ken, seems like they really are good vehicles. And - something not yet mentioned - they're quieter, which is a plus too. |
#59
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Water musician wrote:
On 23 Sep 2016, Mizter T wrote (in article ): On 22/09/2016 21:14, Neil Williams wrote: On 2016-09-22 15:16:38 +0000, tim... said: it is cheap and cheerful taxi service FFS, not a limousine service It actually started out as a high-spec limousine type service - UberX, the "cheap and cheerful" version, came later but is winning the battle. What's wrong with a 5 year old Mondeo? Not an awful lot - I do think they are too tight on the spec for UberX. That said, if I get a minicab from my local companies these days it's odds on a Prius or similar. Old, knackered Japanese saloons (which previously seemed the default) seem to be on the out. Certainly the majority of UberX cars in London are Prii, and many of the larger minicab firms also have Prii as a major part of their fleet. The drivers I've spoken to all seem to like them, they seem a pretty reliable vehicle. Prii / Priora / Priores etc! https://www.cars.com/articles/2011/0...according-to-l atin-experts/ Prius is an increasingly popular choice for private hire drivers (both Uber and otherwise) and operators for several reasons: - Increasing availability of 3-year-old models with FSH coming off-lease (or should that be off personal contract) - Reliability - Passenger romfort ... and above all, reduced operating costs because of low fuel consumption. One of the local drivers who has picked me up numerous times for trips in / to / from SE London and the City turned up recently in a sparkling new-to-him Prius. A replacement for his previous Skoda Octavia, it had come off-contract a few weeks before. In his first couple of weeks using the Prius he had spent £100 less on fuel compared with the Skoda, for similar hours and mileage. And a friend who has been private hire operator for 20-plus years (not in London) has now standardised on the Prius for company-owned vehicles for similar reasons. He now has more than a dozen, with a couple more on order. Apart from the significant fuel saving, I think they're also lighter on brakes and tyres, thanks to the regenerative braking. |
#60
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![]() Quote:
picked up from the Internet and present them as reliable, proven facts. Your suggestion that because I don't believe everything on the Internet, therefore I shouldn't use it at all is childish nonsense. Uber's continuing growth in London is open to question, as is your belief that it is the reason Uber advertises for drivers. Conversations I've had with various people, including minicab drivers, indicate that in London the market for cabs is becoming more settled. Like those Internet scribes in whom you have unquestioning faith, you have difficulty understanding what constitutes a subsidy. If Bob the plumber turns down a low paying job in December when he is busy but in January accepts it when it is offered again, he takes a pay cut. He does not however pay less for his plumbing supplies in January. The fact that he gave a price reduction has nothing to do with his suppliers, and they are not being subsidised when they demand normal prices any more than you subsidise Tesco by paying their normal price for milk and butter. If Uber lease a car for £100.00 a week and rent that car to a driver for £ 50.00 a week, that unquestionably constitutes a subsidy. If Uber charge a customer £75.00 to Gatwick and pay the driver £40.00, that is their normal business practice. If Uber later find that to keep market share they need to reduce their price to £60.00 but still find it necessary to pay the driver £40.00, that does not constitute a subsidy. They are paying the normal price. (I've still to find confirmation from any Uber customer that they are being charged less than they were previously) |
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