On Fri, 6 Apr 2018 06:49:38 -0700 (PDT)
Paul Corfield wrote:
On Thursday, 5 April 2018 15:03:08 UTC+1, Jarle Hammen Knudsen wrote:
On Thu, 05 Apr 2018 11:59:16 +0100, Recliner
wrote:
=20
ridership is unexpectedly down
=20
Why?
=20
--=20
jhk

TfL have yet to publish a definitive researched result. However the followi=
ng have all been mentioned.

I'd also add:

n) bus stops that are too close together that mean buses are stopping every
20-30 seconds in some places and can make very slow progress.

Since TfL has made it clear it doesn't really give a monkeys about the elderly,
disabled or mothers with pushchairs by ditching bendy buses and its continued
use of unsuitable double deckers then it can hardly use them as an excuse for
having bus stops only a few hundred metres apart.

On 06/04/2018 14:49, Paul Corfield wrote:
On Thursday, 5 April 2018 15:03:08 UTC+1, Jarle Hammen Knudsen wrote:
On Thu, 05 Apr 2018 11:59:16 +0100, Recliner
wrote:

ridership is unexpectedly down

Why?

--
jhk

TfL have yet to publish a definitive researched result. However the following have all been mentioned.

a) increased congestion has slowed bus services meaning people use them less.
b) risk averse "padded" bus timetables mean buses stop and "wait time" for minutes at a time to ensure operators achieve headway targets. Passengers get ****ed off with this nonsense (who can blame them?) and stop using the buses.

b.i) Those *&^%#@ announcements, although fortunately they have now gone.
b.ii) All the bus passengers being wiped out in freak "Not holding on
after the bus has already started moving" accidents once the *&^%#@
announcements stopped.

--
Arthur Figgis Surrey, UK

Paul Corfield wrote:
On Thursday, 5 April 2018 15:03:08 UTC+1, Jarle Hammen Knudsen wrote:
On Thu, 05 Apr 2018 11:59:16 +0100, Recliner
wrote:

ridership is unexpectedly down

Why?

--
jhk

TfL have yet to publish a definitive researched result. However the
following have all been mentioned.

a) increased congestion has slowed bus services meaning people use them less.
b) risk averse "padded" bus timetables mean buses stop and "wait time"
for minutes at a time to ensure operators achieve headway targets.
Passengers get ****ed off with this nonsense (who can blame them?) and
stop using the buses.
c) people have transferred to cycles for some journeys.
d) the rise of Uber and similar services have reduced demand for night
buses as has the introduction of the Night Tube.
e) the rise of online shopping is reducing shopping trips on public transport.
f) the rise of home delivery services for take away food is reducing trip
numbers and people travelling to eat out in restaurants.
g) some employment sectors are seeing softening in demand and employment
levels. My own view is this will get VASTLY worse due to Brexit.
h) changes in working patterns mean people commute less and work from
home more. Also many jobs are insecure in terms of regular hours.
i) more people are self employed so don't have traditional commuting patterns.
j) the widespread availability of real time bus info has made it more
obvious to people where there may be gaps in the service or the service
is worse than people perceived it to be. People therefore don't use buses so much.
k) concern over jobs means people are reducing their discretionary spend
on leisure activity thus reducing off peak public transport use.
l) years and years of austerity don't help encourage people to make
frivolous use of public transport.
m) the increased use of contactless cards and paying per trip or charges
per day from bank accounts has made people more aware of the cost of
using publci transport. This may have discouraged people from making
extra trips where they have not reached a daily cap level.

As you can see there is a mix of internal (to TfL) and external factors
affecting how people use the system. It's little wonder if there is
decline in amongst all those issues. Of course TfL's response is to cut
bus services across London so bus usage will fall as people find a worse service.

This was covered out in Inside Out London on Monday, mentioning some of the
factors you cite.

In a way, we should be pleased, as it saves TfL some capital investment,
and pollution should be reduced with fewer journeys into central London. If
people can accomplish largely the same economic impact by using high speed
broadband from home rather than physically travelling into central London,
it's a productivity benefit.

I think the problems being suffered by mid-market restaurant chains
supports the hypothesis.

Brexit could have an effect in the future if it cuts the number of EU
citizens coming to work in London, but I doubt that it's had much effect
yet.

In message
-septem
ber.org, at 01:46:24 on Tue, 10 Apr 2018, Recliner
remarked:

Brexit could have an effect in the future if it cuts the number of EU
citizens coming to work in London, but I doubt that it's had much effect
yet.

The only "industry" I've seen publish any figures yet is University
academia, who have around 25k EU citizens employed (in teaching/
research). They have seen an alleged Brexodus effect, for example Kings
College London reportedly having around 140 leave last year compared to
around 100 previously.

What we don't know (from these reports) is whether they've managed to up
their recruitment to 140, and from where.
--
Roland Perry

On Tue, 10 Apr 2018 01:46:24 -0000 (UTC)
Recliner wrote:
Brexit could have an effect in the future if it cuts the number of EU
citizens coming to work in London, but I doubt that it's had much effect
yet.

If the amount of Polish I hear on my journey is any guide then if a lot of
them clear off I might actually get a seat occasionally.

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-septem
ber.org, at 01:46:24 on Tue, 10 Apr 2018, Recliner
remarked:

Brexit could have an effect in the future if it cuts the number of EU
citizens coming to work in London, but I doubt that it's had much effect
yet.

The only "industry" I've seen publish any figures yet is University
academia, who have around 25k EU citizens employed (in teaching/
research). They have seen an alleged Brexodus effect, for example Kings
College London reportedly having around 140 leave last year compared to
around 100 previously.

What we don't know (from these reports) is whether they've managed to up
their recruitment to 140, and from where.

Yes, I think more are leaving, and fewer applying, but I'm not sure if
there's been an actual reduction employed. Indeed, with some people wanting
to establish residency while they still can (not necessarily academics),
there could even be a temporary increase in EU migrants.

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:44:28 on Tue, 10 Apr 2018, Recliner
remarked:
Brexit could have an effect in the future if it cuts the number of EU
citizens coming to work in London, but I doubt that it's had much effect
yet.

The only "industry" I've seen publish any figures yet is University
academia, who have around 25k EU citizens employed (in teaching/
research). They have seen an alleged Brexodus effect, for example Kings
College London reportedly having around 140 leave last year compared to
around 100 previously.

What we don't know (from these reports) is whether they've managed to up
their recruitment to 140, and from where.

Yes, I think more are leaving, and fewer applying, but I'm not sure if
there's been an actual reduction employed. Indeed, with some people wanting
to establish residency while they still can (not necessarily academics),
there could even be a temporary increase in EU migrants.

Until we see an Immigration Bill with various cut-off dates, and more
importantly what rights will accrue to workers *and* their families,
it's understandable some people will be put off taking a risk.
--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 08:44:28 on Tue, 10 Apr 2018, Recliner
remarked:
Brexit could have an effect in the future if it cuts the number of EU
citizens coming to work in London, but I doubt that it's had much effect
yet.

The only "industry" I've seen publish any figures yet is University
academia, who have around 25k EU citizens employed (in teaching/
research). They have seen an alleged Brexodus effect, for example Kings
College London reportedly having around 140 leave last year compared to
around 100 previously.

What we don't know (from these reports) is whether they've managed to up
their recruitment to 140, and from where.

Yes, I think more are leaving, and fewer applying, but I'm not sure if
there's been an actual reduction employed. Indeed, with some people wanting
to establish residency while they still can (not necessarily academics),
there could even be a temporary increase in EU migrants.

Until we see an Immigration Bill with various cut-off dates, and more
importantly what rights will accrue to workers *and* their families,
it's understandable some people will be put off taking a risk.

Yes, I'm sure that's true, but others who were just considering coming may
bring forward their arrival to be here before any cut-off date.

Incidentally, I think the dates are now agreed (ie, we conceded to the EU's
proposals), but I'm not sure if immigrants' family rights are also
confirmed.

In message
-sept
ember.org, at 09:32:44 on Tue, 10 Apr 2018, Recliner
remarked:
Brexit could have an effect in the future if it cuts the number of EU
citizens coming to work in London, but I doubt that it's had much effect
yet.

The only "industry" I've seen publish any figures yet is University
academia, who have around 25k EU citizens employed (in teaching/
research). They have seen an alleged Brexodus effect, for example Kings
College London reportedly having around 140 leave last year compared to
around 100 previously.

What we don't know (from these reports) is whether they've managed to up
their recruitment to 140, and from where.

Yes, I think more are leaving, and fewer applying, but I'm not sure if
there's been an actual reduction employed. Indeed, with some people wanting
to establish residency while they still can (not necessarily academics),
there could even be a temporary increase in EU migrants.

Until we see an Immigration Bill with various cut-off dates, and more
importantly what rights will accrue to workers *and* their families,
it's understandable some people will be put off taking a risk.

Yes, I'm sure that's true, but others who were just considering coming may
bring forward their arrival to be here before any cut-off date.

Incidentally, I think the dates are now agreed (ie, we conceded to the EU's
proposals),

The problem is, things keep changing. As recently as last November the
Government was sticking firmly to March 2019.

but I'm not sure if immigrants' family rights are also confirmed.

Even the immigrants themselves. One report I've read says it's
restricted to: "EU citizens who are working, self-employed, studying,
who have sufficient resources for themselves and their families
...." and can thus apply [up to the end of 2020] for "pre-settled
status", which is basically a concession while they build up five years
residence before applying for UK Citizenship. Not all such applications
succeed.
--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry wrote:
In message
-sept
ember.org, at 09:32:44 on Tue, 10 Apr 2018, Recliner
remarked:
Brexit could have an effect in the future if it cuts the number of EU
citizens coming to work in London, but I doubt that it's had much effect
yet.

The only "industry" I've seen publish any figures yet is University
academia, who have around 25k EU citizens employed (in teaching/
research). They have seen an alleged Brexodus effect, for example Kings
College London reportedly having around 140 leave last year compared to
around 100 previously.

What we don't know (from these reports) is whether they've managed to up
their recruitment to 140, and from where.

Yes, I think more are leaving, and fewer applying, but I'm not sure if
there's been an actual reduction employed. Indeed, with some people wanting
to establish residency while they still can (not necessarily academics),
there could even be a temporary increase in EU migrants.

Until we see an Immigration Bill with various cut-off dates, and more
importantly what rights will accrue to workers *and* their families,
it's understandable some people will be put off taking a risk.

Yes, I'm sure that's true, but others who were just considering coming may
bring forward their arrival to be here before any cut-off date.

Incidentally, I think the dates are now agreed (ie, we conceded to the EU's
proposals),

The problem is, things keep changing. As recently as last November the
Government was sticking firmly to March 2019.

Not so firmly, it now turns out. As in most aspects of the transition deal,
it's been agreed on the EU's terms.


but I'm not sure if immigrants' family rights are also confirmed.

Even the immigrants themselves. One report I've read says it's
restricted to: "EU citizens who are working, self-employed, studying,
who have sufficient resources for themselves and their families
..." and can thus apply [up to the end of 2020] for "pre-settled
status", which is basically a concession while they build up five years
residence before applying for UK Citizenship. Not all such applications
succeed.

Yes, that area remains confused. I wonder why such an application would be
refused?

One other point is the relative strength of the pound. When it dropped
sharply immediately after the Brexit vote, UK wages no longer looked so
good when translated into euros or zlotys. Now it's recovered much of the
lost ground, UK wages may be looking more attractive again.