On Wednesday, 16 May 2018 14:29:26 UTC+1, Recliner wrote:

Yes, but the problem being analysed is the unexpected drop in the
number of journeys (both bus and tube), not the average fares paid. If
anything, the Hopper fares might have increased the number of
journeys, not reduced them.

Err hard to say. Based on data in the London Datastore the total no of pass jnys on the bus network is down on last year. TfL set themselves a very pessimistic target for bus pass jnys and, hey presto, the numbers are better than their target. I expect there will be some modest trumpeting of this "success" in the annual report due out in a few weeks time.

TfL have not released any meaningful analysis of the Hopper ticket but they don't yet have reliable data because the nature of the Hopper ticket discount has changed. They may have an internal view but they are reticent to share such views on partial datasets.

Ridership is down on every mode expect Overground year on year. All except trams and buses are down against TfL's targets.

http://content.tfl.gov.uk/board-2018...report-p13.pdf

I've not read the article but my sense of things is that the economy is the main problem followed by changing patterns of shopping and leisure activity. Buses are still disproportionately affected by overly slow scheduled journey times and traffic congestion. Expect to see a lot more cuts and changes to the bus network as the planners try to take out more and more cost from the network to reduce the peak vehicle requirement and reshape services relative to demand.

--
Paul C
via Google

On Thu, 24 May 2018 02:09:02 -0700 (PDT), Paul Corfield wrote:

On Wednesday, 16 May 2018 14:29:26 UTC+1, Recliner wrote:

Yes, but the problem being analysed is the unexpected drop in the
number of journeys (both bus and tube), not the average fares paid. If
anything, the Hopper fares might have increased the number of
journeys, not reduced them.

Err hard to say. Based on data in the London Datastore the total no of pass jnys on the bus network is down on last year. TfL set themselves a very pessimistic target for bus pass jnys and, hey presto, the numbers are better than their target. I expect there will be some modest trumpeting of this "success" in the annual report due out in a few weeks time.

TfL have not released any meaningful analysis of the Hopper ticket but they don't yet have reliable data because the nature of the Hopper ticket discount has changed. They may have an internal view but they are reticent to share such views on partial datasets.

Ridership is down on every mode expect Overground year on year. All except trams and buses are down against TfL's targets.

http://content.tfl.gov.uk/board-2018...report-p13.pdf

I've not read the article but my sense of things is that the economy is the main problem followed by changing patterns of shopping and leisure activity. Buses are still disproportionately affected by overly slow scheduled journey times and traffic congestion. Expect to see a lot more cuts and changes to the bus network as the planners try to take out more and more cost from the network to reduce the peak vehicle requirement and reshape services relative to demand.

Could it be that the long-predicted shift away from daily commuting as people increasingly work from
home, enabled by the communications revolution, is happening at last?