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#42
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#43
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On Wed, 3 Jun 2020 09:38:49 +0100
Roland Perry wrote: In message , at 08:25:30 on Wed, 3 Jun 2020, remarked: On Tue, 2 Jun 2020 23:08:30 -0000 (UTC) Anna Noyd-Dryver wrote: MissRiaElaine wrote: At the end of the day it boils down to the simple fact that people are not going to sit back and put up with lockdown indefinitely. Sooner or later, people will say enough is enough. My other half needs new shoes. The high street still looks like Sunday in the sixties, will she have to go barefoot before she can get any..? Surely shoes are available to purchase online? Buying shoes without trying them on first? Really? Thanks to the EU's Distance Selling Directive (which some people apparently want to see flushed down the toilet as part of the bundle of Brussels rule-taking) your purchase isn't final until you've had a chance to try them on and potentially send them back. Getting your money back isn't the issue, its the hassle of having to send them back plus not having the shoes to wear in the meantime. Why are some people so wedded to online that they'll avoid going to an actual shop even when its a lot simpler? |
#44
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On Wed, 3 Jun 2020 09:00:02 +0000 (UTC), wrote:
On Wed, 3 Jun 2020 09:38:49 +0100 Roland Perry wrote: In message , at 08:25:30 on Wed, 3 Jun 2020, remarked: On Tue, 2 Jun 2020 23:08:30 -0000 (UTC) Anna Noyd-Dryver wrote: MissRiaElaine wrote: At the end of the day it boils down to the simple fact that people are not going to sit back and put up with lockdown indefinitely. Sooner or later, people will say enough is enough. My other half needs new shoes. The high street still looks like Sunday in the sixties, will she have to go barefoot before she can get any..? Surely shoes are available to purchase online? Buying shoes without trying them on first? Really? Thanks to the EU's Distance Selling Directive (which some people apparently want to see flushed down the toilet as part of the bundle of Brussels rule-taking) your purchase isn't final until you've had a chance to try them on and potentially send them back. Getting your money back isn't the issue, its the hassle of having to send them back plus not having the shoes to wear in the meantime. Why are some people so wedded to online that they'll avoid going to an actual shop even when its a lot simpler? You leave your shoes until the last available pair falls apart ? |
#45
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Am 02.06.2020 um 21:58 schrieb Anna Noyd-Dryver:
How might the relaxation of the lockdown affect K? Lockdown reduces the chances of a single infectious person spreading the disease to others. “Obviously if you start to allow larger gatherings, have larger workplaces, if you have other types of interaction starting, then that does increase the chance that one infection could spread to more people than it would have been able to a couple of weeks ago,” said Kucharski. “It could decrease the K, but it could also increase the R.” Examples in Germany since lockdown was relaxed: Church Service (Russian/German Church) Frankfurt: 140+ infected Root cause: no masks and singing (legal in Hessen) Church Service (Russian/German Church) Bremerhaven: 100+ infected Supposedly masks were worn and no singing Private family event in Restaurant Leer: 40+ infected Sweet Festival several large families Göttingen: 100+ infected Root cause: private use of Shisha bar with shared mouthpiece (several distancing laws broken, people refused to appear for ordered testing) All of these events did *not* lead to a increased follow-up infections because as soon as one person goes to hospital, several hundred contacts are tested and caught. The extremely low K value in COVID-19 gives us hope that there is little undetected spreading. Rolf |
#46
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wrote:
On 03/06/2020 08:44, Recliner wrote: Sam Wilson wrote: Recliner wrote: MissRiaElaine wrote: On 02/06/2020 20:58, Anna Noyd-Dryver wrote: wrote: On Mon, 1 Jun 2020 16:38:54 +0100 Robin wrote: On 01/06/2020 14:39, MissRiaElaine wrote: On 01/06/2020 10:07, wrote: Allowing individuals to decide for themselves means they are forcing their decisions on other people.Â* I'm fed up with the lycras around here who've decided social distancing is unnecessary. But it's ok for you, the government and every other Tom, Dick or Harry to force their decisions on us. You can't have it both ways. And the next person who utters the appalling phrase "social distancing" will get a slap. Why can't they just say keep your distance..? As with many such things "social distancing" started off as a term of art among public health professionals and leaked into general usage from them - starting many years ago. Plus "social distancing" arguably now conveys something more specific (in the UK, 2m) than "keeping your distance" which could more or less depending on context - eg when drivinh on a motorway rather more than 2m*. Social distancing in its current form was simply another method of scaring the public. "No! Don't go near anyone, you might die!" Etc. Making people afraid - sometimes with a visible enemy (real or fabricated), sometimes not - so you can control their behaviour more easily is a tried and tested method of governments down the ages. Its utterly cynical, anti democratic and I have no time for it. Apparently K is the new number to be concerned about. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/k-number-what-is-coronavirus-metric-crucial-lockdown-eases K sheds light on the variation behind R. “Some [infectious] people might generate a lot of secondary cases because of the event they attend, for example, and other people may not generate many secondary cases at all,” said Dr Adam Kucharski, an expert in the dynamics of infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “K is the statistical value that tells us how much variation there is in that distribution.” But unlike R, K numbers are not intuitive. “The general rule is that the smaller the K value is, the more transmission comes from a smaller number of infectious people,” said Kucharski. “Once K is above about five or 10 it tells you most people are generating pretty similar numbers [of secondary cases], you are not getting these super-spreading events. Once K is below one, you have got the potential for super-spreading.” Is K fixed, or does it fluctuate with public health measures, like R does? As with the rate of transmission, there is a K value that relates to transmission when you do not have any control measures in place. Once measures are implemented, however, the distribution in transmission changes. “It is unlikely that with lockdown measures in place you’d see a lot of super-spreading events simply because there aren’t any opportunities for them,” said Kucharski. “So if you were to analyse that data, you’d probably calculate a different K value because you have got those control measures changing the dynamics of interactions.” What is the K number for Covid-19? In the absence of public health measures, “the values that are coming out for Covid-19 seems to be between about 0.1 and 0.5,” said Kucharski. That, he says, means that in the early stages of an outbreak about 10-20% of infections probably generate about 80% of the transmission. In other words, super-spreading matters – a reality highlighted by reports such as that from South Korea where one individual is thought to have infected dozens of others by attending church. But Kucharski cautioned against the use of the term super-spreader. “I think we do have to be really careful about blaming people because often it is not really much about the person, it is much more about the environment they happened to be in while they were infectious,” he said. Why is K important? Knowing the K value helps to inform what sort of public health measures may help to reduce R. “If we can identify and reduce the situations that are disproportionately driving transmission, then that suggests that we could actually have potentially quite a lot less disruptive measures in place, but still keep the reproduction number low,” said Kucharski. But it could also be important for test-and-trace measures, he said. “If cases occur at random, it’s very hard to track down and stop every chain of transmission. But if cases cluster together, and we can identify those clusters, testing and tracing directed at these situations could have a disproportionate effect on reducing transmission.” How might the relaxation of the lockdown affect K? Lockdown reduces the chances of a single infectious person spreading the disease to others. “Obviously if you start to allow larger gatherings, have larger workplaces, if you have other types of interaction starting, then that does increase the chance that one infection could spread to more people than it would have been able to a couple of weeks ago,” said Kucharski. “It could decrease the K, but it could also increase the R.” R numbers, K numbers, X Y and Z numbers, I don't care, I've had enough. I want my life back. Yes, I think a growing number of people feel the same. Most people now realise that the risk to them personally is extremely low, and they're prepared to risk it, just as we (collectively) risk eating out, crossing the road, eating unhealthily, drinking and/or smoking, using public transport, climbing mountains, winter sports, etc, etc. Then I’ll be staying home while the second wave happens. Well, that's the big question that may shortly be answered: will it be a big wave, comparable to the first, or just a much smaller ripple? Clearly, most younger people expect just a ripple, while the scientists are undecided. Personally, I think it'll just be a ripple, but we need to be alert for a second wave. It would help if our test and trace capabilities were as good as Hapless Hancock keeps telling us they are. At least in London and the southeast, I think enough people are either not susceptible, or now immune, that there will not be a big second wave, even if all lockdown restrictions are lifted, and all businesses allowed to reopen with some basic social distancing. Other parts of the country are a few weeks further behind, and may want to wait a little longer. And, of course, vulnerable people should continue to avoid crowded places. I have two friends who're nurses and the best way to describe them is knackered. They need a few weeks R&R before the next onslaught, not a week, a few weeks R&R so the ability of medial professionals to cope should be a consideration. I fear Cummings' government regards them as expendable collateral damage. The Cummings era is at an end, and temporarily, Johnson has taken over from him until the new Downing Street CEO, Simon Case, gets up to speed. Cummings may hang around for a few months before slinking off to a think tank, but his power has gone. He's morphed from consiglieri to clown in a matter of days. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/02/exclusive-boris-johnson-takes-back-control-coronavirus-crisis/ I accept that young people are at low risk of dying but they'll still capable of spreading it on to those who're higher risk. Not children. For some reason, they don't seem to spread it. And most people under 70 are at very low risk of dying. Consider the London borough of Brent, which has had the highest percentage of excess deaths this year. Those excess deaths amount to 0.15% of the population. So, even in the highest risk area, where an NHS hospital had to declare an emergency, 99.85% did not die from the plague. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/02/revealed-coronavirus-death-toll-across-britain-many-excess/ |
#47
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Charles Ellson wrote:
On Wed, 3 Jun 2020 09:00:02 +0000 (UTC), wrote: On Wed, 3 Jun 2020 09:38:49 +0100 Roland Perry wrote: In message , at 08:25:30 on Wed, 3 Jun 2020, remarked: On Tue, 2 Jun 2020 23:08:30 -0000 (UTC) Anna Noyd-Dryver wrote: MissRiaElaine wrote: At the end of the day it boils down to the simple fact that people are not going to sit back and put up with lockdown indefinitely. Sooner or later, people will say enough is enough. My other half needs new shoes. The high street still looks like Sunday in the sixties, will she have to go barefoot before she can get any..? Surely shoes are available to purchase online? Buying shoes without trying them on first? Really? Thanks to the EU's Distance Selling Directive (which some people apparently want to see flushed down the toilet as part of the bundle of Brussels rule-taking) your purchase isn't final until you've had a chance to try them on and potentially send them back. Getting your money back isn't the issue, its the hassle of having to send them back plus not having the shoes to wear in the meantime. Why are some people so wedded to online that they'll avoid going to an actual shop even when its a lot simpler? You leave your shoes until the last available pair falls apart ? Yes, that's what surprised me: a woman with only one pair of shoes! |
#48
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On 03/06/2020 10:23, Recliner wrote:
wrote: On 03/06/2020 08:44, Recliner wrote: Sam Wilson wrote: Recliner wrote: MissRiaElaine wrote: On 02/06/2020 20:58, Anna Noyd-Dryver wrote: wrote: On Mon, 1 Jun 2020 16:38:54 +0100 Robin wrote: On 01/06/2020 14:39, MissRiaElaine wrote: On 01/06/2020 10:07, wrote: Allowing individuals to decide for themselves means they are forcing their decisions on other people.Â* I'm fed up with the lycras around here who've decided social distancing is unnecessary. But it's ok for you, the government and every other Tom, Dick or Harry to force their decisions on us. You can't have it both ways. And the next person who utters the appalling phrase "social distancing" will get a slap. Why can't they just say keep your distance..? As with many such things "social distancing" started off as a term of art among public health professionals and leaked into general usage from them - starting many years ago. Plus "social distancing" arguably now conveys something more specific (in the UK, 2m) than "keeping your distance" which could more or less depending on context - eg when drivinh on a motorway rather more than 2m*. Social distancing in its current form was simply another method of scaring the public. "No! Don't go near anyone, you might die!" Etc. Making people afraid - sometimes with a visible enemy (real or fabricated), sometimes not - so you can control their behaviour more easily is a tried and tested method of governments down the ages. Its utterly cynical, anti democratic and I have no time for it. Apparently K is the new number to be concerned about. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/k-number-what-is-coronavirus-metric-crucial-lockdown-eases K sheds light on the variation behind R. “Some [infectious] people might generate a lot of secondary cases because of the event they attend, for example, and other people may not generate many secondary cases at all,” said Dr Adam Kucharski, an expert in the dynamics of infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “K is the statistical value that tells us how much variation there is in that distribution.” But unlike R, K numbers are not intuitive. “The general rule is that the smaller the K value is, the more transmission comes from a smaller number of infectious people,” said Kucharski. “Once K is above about five or 10 it tells you most people are generating pretty similar numbers [of secondary cases], you are not getting these super-spreading events. Once K is below one, you have got the potential for super-spreading.” Is K fixed, or does it fluctuate with public health measures, like R does? As with the rate of transmission, there is a K value that relates to transmission when you do not have any control measures in place. Once measures are implemented, however, the distribution in transmission changes. “It is unlikely that with lockdown measures in place you’d see a lot of super-spreading events simply because there aren’t any opportunities for them,” said Kucharski. “So if you were to analyse that data, you’d probably calculate a different K value because you have got those control measures changing the dynamics of interactions.” What is the K number for Covid-19? In the absence of public health measures, “the values that are coming out for Covid-19 seems to be between about 0.1 and 0.5,” said Kucharski. That, he says, means that in the early stages of an outbreak about 10-20% of infections probably generate about 80% of the transmission. In other words, super-spreading matters – a reality highlighted by reports such as that from South Korea where one individual is thought to have infected dozens of others by attending church. But Kucharski cautioned against the use of the term super-spreader. “I think we do have to be really careful about blaming people because often it is not really much about the person, it is much more about the environment they happened to be in while they were infectious,” he said. Why is K important? Knowing the K value helps to inform what sort of public health measures may help to reduce R. “If we can identify and reduce the situations that are disproportionately driving transmission, then that suggests that we could actually have potentially quite a lot less disruptive measures in place, but still keep the reproduction number low,” said Kucharski. But it could also be important for test-and-trace measures, he said. “If cases occur at random, it’s very hard to track down and stop every chain of transmission. But if cases cluster together, and we can identify those clusters, testing and tracing directed at these situations could have a disproportionate effect on reducing transmission.” How might the relaxation of the lockdown affect K? Lockdown reduces the chances of a single infectious person spreading the disease to others. “Obviously if you start to allow larger gatherings, have larger workplaces, if you have other types of interaction starting, then that does increase the chance that one infection could spread to more people than it would have been able to a couple of weeks ago,” said Kucharski. “It could decrease the K, but it could also increase the R.” R numbers, K numbers, X Y and Z numbers, I don't care, I've had enough. I want my life back. Yes, I think a growing number of people feel the same. Most people now realise that the risk to them personally is extremely low, and they're prepared to risk it, just as we (collectively) risk eating out, crossing the road, eating unhealthily, drinking and/or smoking, using public transport, climbing mountains, winter sports, etc, etc. Then I’ll be staying home while the second wave happens. Well, that's the big question that may shortly be answered: will it be a big wave, comparable to the first, or just a much smaller ripple? Clearly, most younger people expect just a ripple, while the scientists are undecided. Personally, I think it'll just be a ripple, but we need to be alert for a second wave. It would help if our test and trace capabilities were as good as Hapless Hancock keeps telling us they are. At least in London and the southeast, I think enough people are either not susceptible, or now immune, that there will not be a big second wave, even if all lockdown restrictions are lifted, and all businesses allowed to reopen with some basic social distancing. Other parts of the country are a few weeks further behind, and may want to wait a little longer. And, of course, vulnerable people should continue to avoid crowded places. I have two friends who're nurses and the best way to describe them is knackered. They need a few weeks R&R before the next onslaught, not a week, a few weeks R&R so the ability of medial professionals to cope should be a consideration. I fear Cummings' government regards them as expendable collateral damage. The Cummings era is at an end, and temporarily, Johnson has taken over from him until the new Downing Street CEO, Simon Case, gets up to speed. Cummings may hang around for a few months before slinking off to a think tank, but his power has gone. He's morphed from consiglieri to clown in a matter of days. Following Johnson's blind support for Cummings they've both got similar support, or perhaps I should say contempt. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/02/exclusive-boris-johnson-takes-back-control-coronavirus-crisis/ I accept that young people are at low risk of dying but they'll still capable of spreading it on to those who're higher risk. Not children. For some reason, they don't seem to spread it. And most people under 70 are at very low risk of dying. Consider the London borough of Brent, which has had the highest percentage of excess deaths this year. Those excess deaths amount to 0.15% of the population. So, even in the highest risk area, where an NHS hospital had to declare an emergency, 99.85% did not die from the plague. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/02/revealed-coronavirus-death-toll-across-britain-many-excess/ |
#49
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In message , at 09:00:02 on Wed, 3 Jun
2020, remarked: On Wed, 3 Jun 2020 09:38:49 +0100 Roland Perry wrote: In message , at 08:25:30 on Wed, 3 Jun 2020, remarked: On Tue, 2 Jun 2020 23:08:30 -0000 (UTC) Anna Noyd-Dryver wrote: MissRiaElaine wrote: At the end of the day it boils down to the simple fact that people are not going to sit back and put up with lockdown indefinitely. Sooner or later, people will say enough is enough. My other half needs new shoes. The high street still looks like Sunday in the sixties, will she have to go barefoot before she can get any..? Surely shoes are available to purchase online? Buying shoes without trying them on first? Really? Thanks to the EU's Distance Selling Directive (which some people apparently want to see flushed down the toilet as part of the bundle of Brussels rule-taking) your purchase isn't final until you've had a chance to try them on and potentially send them back. Getting your money back isn't the issue, its the hassle of having to send them back Print out a label, drop it into an inconvenience store. Simples. plus not having the shoes to wear in the meantime. Order them in plenty of time. Why are some people so wedded to online that they'll avoid going to an actual shop even when its a lot simpler? In my case it's because the choice is so much wider, especially in the smallish size which I take. -- Roland Perry |
#50
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On 03/06/2020 09:24, wrote:
On Tue, 2 Jun 2020 23:08:29 -0000 (UTC) Anna Noyd-Dryver wrote: wrote: On Tue, 02 Jun 2020 07:04:37 -0500 Arthur Conan Doyle wrote: wrote: Roll all you like. Governments have been playing the fear card for months now but as Sweden and Japan have shown, this virus isn't nearly as contagious or deadly as they would have us believe. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/swed...-herd-immunity Wired? Give me a break. As for well and truly failed - how can a herd immunity approach that has less deaths per million than belgium, UK, spain and italy and only slight more than france which all had tight lockdowns be said to have failed exactly? Default behaviours in different countries/regions differ, and therefore affect their 'default' transmission rates. It appears that Sweden's 'default' death rate is around the same as our lockdown death rate, presumably because they do stuff like not hugging random strangers as a We don't tend to hug random strangers here in the UK, nor do they do that much in Belgium AFAIK. You're clutching at straws. greeting. Their transmission rate is around eight times their presumably-comparable neighbours; therefore, without lockdown, would our Why does everyone assume NOrway and Denmark are equivalent to Sweden? Just because they all speak dialects of the same language? AIUI, the Norwegians are still angry at Sweden for allowing the Germans to march through into Norway. |
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