"Recliner" wrote in message
...
tim... wrote:


"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message , at 09:13:34 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020,
remarked:
On Sat, 20 Jun 2020 06:49:03 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19
Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that
the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without
the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public
would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that
rate.

If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.

On the flip side , the coronavirus death list also includes people who
died
WITH the virus, not just those of died OF the virus. Other countries
only
measure the latter.

How do they know that the thing the person died of, wasn't a consequence
of the virus?

Well they don't, and that's "they" generally, both them and us

the point is the UK are more "honest" about this than some (not all)
other
countries.

The UK puts primary cause = pneumonia, secondary cause = COVID on the
forms,
thus it counts as a COVID death

some countries put cause = pneumonia and it doesn't count as a COVID
death
even if the patient has tested positive

That's all separate from the problem of people dying with COVID,
completely
undiagnosed

and people dying of something else completely because they couldn't get
the
necessary hospital treatment as all the beds are full

That's why it's best to use the excess deaths estimate when doing
comparisons. Of course, it may not be possible with countries that don't
keep the daily death statistics.

doesn't need to be daily

quarterly figures (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun etc) would be sufficient

tim... wrote:


"Recliner" wrote in message
...
tim... wrote:


"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message , at 09:13:34 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020,
remarked:
On Sat, 20 Jun 2020 06:49:03 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19
Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that
the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without
the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public
would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that
rate.

If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.

On the flip side , the coronavirus death list also includes people who
died
WITH the virus, not just those of died OF the virus. Other countries
only
measure the latter.

How do they know that the thing the person died of, wasn't a consequence
of the virus?

Well they don't, and that's "they" generally, both them and us

the point is the UK are more "honest" about this than some (not all)
other
countries.

The UK puts primary cause = pneumonia, secondary cause = COVID on the
forms,
thus it counts as a COVID death

some countries put cause = pneumonia and it doesn't count as a COVID
death
even if the patient has tested positive

That's all separate from the problem of people dying with COVID,
completely
undiagnosed

and people dying of something else completely because they couldn't get
the
necessary hospital treatment as all the beds are full

That's why it's best to use the excess deaths estimate when doing
comparisons. Of course, it may not be possible with countries that don't
keep the daily death statistics.

doesn't need to be daily

quarterly figures (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun etc) would be sufficient

That would be too coarse, but monthly might be enough. The Economist has
some weekly analysis:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

On 22/06/2020 11:50, wrote:
On Mon, 22 Jun 2020 11:03:38 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:12:22 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, remarked:
On Fri, 19 Jun 2020 17:59:47 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

A similar prediction was also made for Sweden.

Who had social distancing and PPE policies. But a lack of lockdown has

Voluntary policies. They treated their population as adults, not naughty
children who needed to be coralled at home.


Here, of course, they had to allow for people like you.

--
Graeme Wall
This account not read.

In message , at 14:20:26 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, tim... remarked:

some countries put cause = pneumonia and it doesn't count as a COVID
death even if the patient has tested positive

Really?
--
Roland Perry

In message , at 10:50:17 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, remarked:
On Mon, 22 Jun 2020 11:03:38 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:12:22 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, remarked:
On Fri, 19 Jun 2020 17:59:47 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

A similar prediction was also made for Sweden.

Who had social distancing and PPE policies. But a lack of lockdown has

Voluntary policies. They treated their population as adults, not naughty
children who needed to be coralled at home.

And look how successful that was.

Actually, not bad compared to the "take no action at all" scenario, even
though they nevertheless have the worst figures in Europe.
--
Roland Perry

Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 10:50:17 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, remarked:
On Mon, 22 Jun 2020 11:03:38 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:12:22 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, remarked:
On Fri, 19 Jun 2020 17:59:47 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

A similar prediction was also made for Sweden.

Who had social distancing and PPE policies. But a lack of lockdown has

Voluntary policies. They treated their population as adults, not naughty
children who needed to be coralled at home.

And look how successful that was.

Actually, not bad compared to the "take no action at all" scenario, even
though they nevertheless have the worst figures in Europe.

Which 'they' are you referring to in that statement? Presumably not
Sweden, whose figures are better than the UK.

"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message , at 14:20:26 on Mon, 22 Jun 2020,
tim... remarked:

some countries put cause = pneumonia and it doesn't count as a COVID death
even if the patient has tested positive

Really

apparently

that's how some countries have absurdly low figures for deaths

On 23/06/2020 07:25, tim... wrote:


"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message , at 14:20:26 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, tim... remarked:

some countries put cause = pneumonia and it doesn't count as a COVID
death even if the patient has tested positive

Really

apparently

that's how some countries have absurdly low figures for deaths




Cite?

--
Graeme Wall
This account not read.

In message , at 19:54:22 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 10:50:17 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, remarked:
On Mon, 22 Jun 2020 11:03:38 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:12:22 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, remarked:
On Fri, 19 Jun 2020 17:59:47 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

A similar prediction was also made for Sweden.

Who had social distancing and PPE policies. But a lack of lockdown has

Voluntary policies. They treated their population as adults, not naughty
children who needed to be coralled at home.

And look how successful that was.

Actually, not bad compared to the "take no action at all" scenario, even
though they nevertheless have the worst figures in Europe.

Which 'they' are you referring to in that statement?

Sweden.

Presumably not Sweden, whose figures are better than the UK.

But are significantly worse than other r27 countries.

ps In case you hadn't noticed, we left Europe.
--
Roland Perry

In message , at 09:24:49 on Sun, 21 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:

There's nothing in the story from The Telegraph which confirms their
test is *not* one of the kind the MHRA are now saying not to use.

I think you need a drive to Barnard Castle. Then read it again. Or for the
first time.

Please quote the Telegraph text which supports your proposition.
--
Roland Perry