On Fri, 19 Jun 2020 17:59:47 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

A similar prediction was also made for Sweden.

On Sat, 20 Jun 2020 06:49:03 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that rate.

If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.

On the flip side , the coronavirus death list also includes people who died
WITH the virus, not just those of died OF the virus. Other countries only
measure the latter.

wrote:
On Sat, 20 Jun 2020 06:49:03 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that rate.

If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.

On the flip side , the coronavirus death list also includes people who died
WITH the virus, not just those of died OF the virus. Other countries only
measure the latter.

As often mentioned, it's best to look at excess deaths, to avoid arguments
about whether death certificates are consistent or accurate. The BBC web
site has an interactive map that lets you compare the excess deaths per
capita in any chosen area with the national average:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

In most of the country, the excess deaths are now running at a low rate,
but I find that in some parts of the country that were hit hard and early,
the excess deaths are now negative. In other words, the virus claimed the
lives of some of the frail people who would have died in June a couple of
months early. Ealing and Hounslow, boroughs adjacent to Heathrow, are
examples where the current death rate is below their norm.

But, to pick a purely random example, County Durham, still has a high CV-19
death rate, so excess deaths are still significant.

In message , at 09:13:34 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, remarked:
On Sat, 20 Jun 2020 06:49:03 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that rate.

If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.

On the flip side , the coronavirus death list also includes people who died
WITH the virus, not just those of died OF the virus. Other countries only
measure the latter.

How do they know that the thing the person died of, wasn't a consequence
of the virus? Some consequences are well known, but it's becoming
clearer that it affects the blood as well as the lungs. Indeed, the
effect on the lungs may itself often be due to changes in the blood.

Meanwhile, if an affected person is run over by a bus, do they test the
corpse for virus? The UK at least has been severely rationing tests
until quite recently.
--
Roland Perry

In message , at 09:12:22 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, remarked:
On Fri, 19 Jun 2020 17:59:47 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

A similar prediction was also made for Sweden.

Who had social distancing and PPE policies. But a lack of lockdown has
meant their infection rate has merely plateaued, and is stuck at around
50 per million, UK is currently regarded as disastrous at 40 (down from
a peak of 80), most of the rest of Europe is now below 10.
--
Roland Perry

On Mon, 22 Jun 2020 11:03:38 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 09:12:22 on Mon, 22 Jun
2020, remarked:
On Fri, 19 Jun 2020 17:59:47 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

A similar prediction was also made for Sweden.

Who had social distancing and PPE policies. But a lack of lockdown has

Voluntary policies. They treated their population as adults, not naughty
children who needed to be coralled at home.

"Recliner" wrote in message
...
wrote:
On Sat, 20 Jun 2020 06:49:03 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that
rate.

If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.

On the flip side , the coronavirus death list also includes people who
died
WITH the virus, not just those of died OF the virus. Other countries only
measure the latter.

As often mentioned, it's best to look at excess deaths, to avoid arguments
about whether death certificates are consistent or accurate. The BBC web
site has an interactive map that lets you compare the excess deaths per
capita in any chosen area with the national average:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

but only UK

not for comparison with ROW

"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message , at 09:13:34 on Mon, 22 Jun 2020,
remarked:
On Sat, 20 Jun 2020 06:49:03 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that
rate.

If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.

On the flip side , the coronavirus death list also includes people who
died
WITH the virus, not just those of died OF the virus. Other countries only
measure the latter.

How do they know that the thing the person died of, wasn't a consequence
of the virus?

Well they don't, and that's "they" generally, both them and us

the point is the UK are more "honest" about this than some (not all) other
countries.

The UK puts primary cause = pneumonia, secondary cause = COVID on the forms,
thus it counts as a COVID death

some countries put cause = pneumonia and it doesn't count as a COVID death
even if the patient has tested positive

That's all separate from the problem of people dying with COVID, completely
undiagnosed

and people dying of something else completely because they couldn't get the
necessary hospital treatment as all the beds are full

tim

tim... wrote:


"Recliner" wrote in message
...
wrote:
On Sat, 20 Jun 2020 06:49:03 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that
rate.

If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.

On the flip side , the coronavirus death list also includes people who
died
WITH the virus, not just those of died OF the virus. Other countries only
measure the latter.

As often mentioned, it's best to look at excess deaths, to avoid arguments
about whether death certificates are consistent or accurate. The BBC web
site has an interactive map that lets you compare the excess deaths per
capita in any chosen area with the national average:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

but only UK

not for comparison with ROW

True. But it's useful to compare different UK areas. There are other sites
that compare the UK with other countries.

tim... wrote:


"Roland Perry" wrote in message
...
In message , at 09:13:34 on Mon, 22 Jun 2020,
remarked:
On Sat, 20 Jun 2020 06:49:03 +0100
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 21:07:18 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, Recliner remarked:
Roland Perry wrote:
In message , at 14:55:38 on Fri, 19 Jun
2020, remarked:

given Ferguson was prediction 500K deaths I think we can say that the
model needed a bit of tweaking.

Wasn't that if we "did nothing". But we did 'something'.

Yes, it was the most pessimistic, worst-case scenario. Even without the
official measures, that wouldn't have come to pass, as the public would
have adopted their own informal versions if people were dying at that
rate.

If they knew how bad it was. Reports today say that the death rate at
Easter was significantly higher than the government were briefing,
because they only included hospital deaths which also tested positive.

On the flip side , the coronavirus death list also includes people who
died
WITH the virus, not just those of died OF the virus. Other countries only
measure the latter.

How do they know that the thing the person died of, wasn't a consequence
of the virus?

Well they don't, and that's "they" generally, both them and us

the point is the UK are more "honest" about this than some (not all) other
countries.

The UK puts primary cause = pneumonia, secondary cause = COVID on the forms,
thus it counts as a COVID death

some countries put cause = pneumonia and it doesn't count as a COVID death
even if the patient has tested positive

That's all separate from the problem of people dying with COVID, completely
undiagnosed

and people dying of something else completely because they couldn't get the
necessary hospital treatment as all the beds are full

That's why it's best to use the excess deaths estimate when doing
comparisons. Of course, it may not be possible with countries that don't
keep the daily death statistics.