Paul Terry wrote in message ...
In message , TheOneKEA
writes

withdrawal of Eurostar from Waterloo

If the Stratford International DLR link is mooted, passengers will have
level access from the Jubbly terminus to the former westbound NLL
platform, where they can catch the DLR to the International station.

But you see how this compares with the current interchange at Waterloo:
it takes just a few seconds from SWT to Eurostar. We know that is
closing, but Stratford is still being argued over and the interchange at
Waterloo to the jubbly is hardly brilliant. Customers will inevitably
re-evaluate Heathrow, which is usually cheaper and in the future may
prove quicker.

Maybe customers in SWT-land. But what about customers on the Central
Line? Or customers living in Beckton? Or folks on the District?

IMO, whatever custom Eurostar *might* lose by closing Waterloo and
forcing folks to go to St. Pancras and Stratford will undoubtedly be
reversed by the much larger numbers of people who will be able to get
to Stratford far more easily (and cheaply!) than Waterloo.


I guess that Eurostar have done their sums, but I regard a single very
slick change (as at Waterloo at present) as a huge selling point. So do
Eurostar, but they now only express this in terms of customers coming
from the north and midlands (good luck to those customers ... but they
are not going to provide the enormous day-trip trade to the near-
continent that is possible from SW London).

I suspect Eurostar will lose a fair amount of traffic to Heathrow, and
I'm not convinced they will easily replace it. Strange for a company to
want to restrict its outlets ... and if the government was serious in
wanting to restrict air-traffic pollution, it might have stepped in
(perhaps Eurostar are hoping they still might!).

As I've already stated, I feel that whatever traffic Eurostar might
lose at Waterloo, it will regain in spades at Stratford. *Especially*
if the Stratford International is opened in a timely fashion.

In message , TheOneKEA
writes

Paul Terry wrote in message
...

Customers will inevitably re-evaluate Heathrow, which is usually
cheaper and in the future may prove quicker.

Maybe customers in SWT-land.

Those are the ones we are discussing, yes.

But what about customers on the Central
Line? Or customers living in Beckton? Or folks on the District?

They are likely to have to suffer the appalling interchange planned for
Stratford. The last I heard, Union Railways are even resisting putting
in a travelator (it is rumoured they want to force people to walk past a
quarter of mile of shops to get to the International station).

IMO, whatever custom Eurostar *might* lose by closing Waterloo and
forcing folks to go to St. Pancras and Stratford will undoubtedly be
reversed by the much larger numbers of people who will be able to get
to Stratford far more easily (and cheaply!) than Waterloo.

But will such people want or need to use Eurostar?

And why should a company merely want to replace one cohort of customers
with another? Most would use an opportunity such as this to *increase*
their customer base by *adding* all those new fares from Stratford, not
by using them to replace lost Waterloo customers.

As I've already stated, I feel that whatever traffic Eurostar might
lose at Waterloo, it will regain in spades at Stratford.

To a large extent it will depend on whether those needing to go to
Brussels and Paris for business meetings, or choosing to go there on
leisure breaks, live mainly in SW London or in Beckton etc. I suspect it
is mostly the former, and Eurostar are therefore going to be forced to
start building a new customer base from scratch instead of building on
their existing market.

--
Paul Terry

In message , at 09:33:28 on Tue, 16 Nov
2004, Paul Terry remarked:
Customers will inevitably re-evaluate Heathrow, which is usually
cheaper and in the future may prove quicker.

Maybe customers in SWT-land.

Those are the ones we are discussing, yes.

I used to live in SWT-land (near Surbiton). I was *extremely* surprised
to find that there's no SWT train running in the early morning that
would have connected me with the first E* from Waterloo - necessary if
you want to make a morning meeting on the Continent. Presumably that
first train is entirely for people within a taxi ride of Waterloo
(including those forced to overnight in a hotel).

But what about customers on the Central
Line? Or customers living in Beckton? Or folks on the District?

They are likely to have to suffer the appalling interchange planned for
Stratford. The last I heard, Union Railways are even resisting putting
in a travelator (it is rumoured they want to force people to walk past
a quarter of mile of shops to get to the International station).

Ah, just like all the airports, then?

To a large extent it will depend on whether those needing to go to
Brussels and Paris for business meetings, or choosing to go there on
leisure breaks, live mainly in SW London or in Beckton etc. I suspect
it is mostly the former, and Eurostar are therefore going to be forced
to start building a new customer base from scratch instead of building
on their existing market.

You need to factor in several other variables. For example, as a result
of the impossibility of catching the first E* in the morning from
anywhere outside central London, the business traveller with a morning
meeting has to be funded well enough to either overnight in London, or
Paris/Brussels.

--
Roland Perry

In message , Roland
Perry writes

I used to live in SWT-land (near Surbiton). I was *extremely* surprised
to find that there's no SWT train running in the early morning that
would have connected me with the first E* from Waterloo

Then think how much worse it is going to be to get from Surbiton to St
Pancras in time for a 05:30 departure!

- necessary if you want to make a morning meeting on the Continent.

Depends - the 06:26 departure arrive in Brussels at 10.01. But I don't
know many people who are so keen on their jobs that they would want to
get up that early just for a meeting.

Presumably that first train is entirely for people within a taxi ride
of Waterloo (including those forced to overnight in a hotel).

Or who have relatives who can drop them off, or who know how to use a
night bus, or who are travelling in a party for which a minibus or
coach, has been laid on, or who are Belgian or French and have been
staying in a nearby hotel ...

But I have to say that the only time I ever travelled on that early
service, I was very lonely. It certainly wasn't very popular a few years
back.

You need to factor in several other variables. For example, as a result
of the impossibility of catching the first E* in the morning from
anywhere outside central London, the business traveller with a morning
meeting has to be funded well enough to either overnight in London, or
Paris/Brussels.

I should have thought that was pretty normal - the company for which I
sometimes do some work (and which has charitable status) will always pay
for a hotel if there is a morning start and the travelling time is much
more than about an hour.

--
Paul Terry

In message , at 12:56:09 on Tue, 16 Nov
2004, Paul Terry remarked:

I used to live in SWT-land (near Surbiton). I was *extremely*
surprised to find that there's no SWT train running in the early
morning that would have connected me with the first E* from Waterloo

Then think how much worse it is going to be to get from Surbiton to St
Pancras in time for a 05:30 departure!

If there are no National Rail trains it's a moot point.

- necessary if you want to make a morning meeting on the Continent.

Depends - the 06:26 departure arrive in Brussels at 10.01. But I don't
know many people who are so keen on their jobs that they would want to
get up that early just for a meeting.

It's not just being keen on the job. I worked for a not-for-profit
organisation where funds were very strictly limited. An overnight stay
in Brussels was a significant expanse, and there were morning meetings
that I needed to be at.

the company for which I sometimes do some work (and which has
charitable status) will always pay for a hotel if there is a morning
start and the travelling time is much more than about an hour.

Mine had a fixed annual budget for such things, and no amount of
"extenuating circumstances" would produce any more money :-(
--
Roland Perry

On Tue, 16 Nov 2004 09:33:28 +0000, Paul Terry
wrote:


To a large extent it will depend on whether those needing to go to
Brussels and Paris for business meetings, or choosing to go there on
leisure breaks, live mainly in SW London or in Beckton etc. I suspect it
is mostly the former, and Eurostar are therefore going to be forced to
start building a new customer base from scratch instead of building on
their existing market.

I think the point is that a lot of Eurostar users don't live in either
South West London or in Beckton. From my present address, in North
London, St Pancras will be marginally easier than Waterloo but the
difference won't affect my decision whether to go by train or air.
That's probably true of many Eurostar customers: not just ones who
live in London but ones who live in Cheltenham or Philadelphia or
Poitiers or wherever.

Moreover, I used to live in SW London and Heathrow was very difficult
to get to by public transport. If I still lived there, I'd be
disappointed to be forced to go via St Pancras but I'd still do that
in preference to going to Heathrow. When I lived in SW London I still
preferred rail to air as a way of getting to Edinburgh, despite
needing to get to Kings Cross (usually via Vauxhall) and a longer
journey time overall. I did once (this is going back a fair while - I
don't think it's possible these days) get a direct train from Clapham
Junction to Manchester to avoid the tube journey to Euston. But to be
honest it was usually easier to go to Euston than to arrange my trip
to coincide with one of the very few trains that made that run.

So I would be surprised if Eurostar will in practice lose much of its
existing business through the move to St Pancras. Given that SWT
could probably do with the capacity freed up on the lines out of
Waterloo, if not necessarily at the station, the commercial case to
stop running Eurostars looks compelling.

Still, I'll be sad to see no more Eurostars at Waterloo, if only
because the international station there is such a fine building and it
won't seem the same if it's just used for commuter trains

Martin

TheOneKEA wrote to uk.transport.london on Tue, 16 Nov 2004:

Maybe customers in SWT-land. But what about customers on the Central
Line? Or customers living in Beckton? Or folks on the District?

IMO, whatever custom Eurostar *might* lose by closing Waterloo and
forcing folks to go to St. Pancras and Stratford will undoubtedly be
reversed by the much larger numbers of people who will be able to get
to Stratford far more easily (and cheaply!) than Waterloo.

But we don't want not to have Stratford - we want to have Waterloo *as
well*!!!! The right to choose, and all that jazz....

Another poster commented about day-trip traffic - people living in the
North - my daughter, in York, for instance, or a friend in Hull - simply
can't do day-trips anyway, wherever the Eurostar leaves from. They do
3-days to Amsterdam by ferry, not 24 hours in Paris or Brussels! And I
can't see that changing.

As I've already stated, I feel that whatever traffic Eurostar might
lose at Waterloo, it will regain in spades at Stratford. *Especially*
if the Stratford International is opened in a timely fashion.

Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha..... You really reckon it will be? I've got a
bridge in Brooklyn....
--
"Mrs Redboots"
http://www.amsmyth.demon.co.uk/
Website updated 6 November 2004 with new photos

On Tue, 16 Nov 2004 10:07:11 +0000, Mrs Redboots
wrote:

Another poster commented about day-trip traffic - people living in the
North - my daughter, in York, for instance, or a friend in Hull - simply
can't do day-trips anyway, wherever the Eurostar leaves from. They do
3-days to Amsterdam by ferry, not 24 hours in Paris or Brussels! And I
can't see that changing.

Until Hull Trains came along, it could be cheaper to go to Amsterdam
than to London from Hull. A bit like ye olde pre-railway days, when
the jouney times were about similar.
--
Arthur Figgis Surrey, UK