TheOneKEA wrote:
Dave Arquati wrote:
On the other hand, a Bakerloo extension would probably lead to increased
overcrowding on the Northern line north of the Elephant, as people make
new journeys or switch from buses and trains to the Tube for journeys to
the City.

It all depends on where most of the passengers would go. I think
extending the Bakerloo to Herne Hill and constructing a flying terminus
there would be an excellent idea, if and only if it could be shown that
most of the paseengers at Herne Hill are headed somewhere served by the
Bakerloo Line.


It's one of those situations where "cost/benefit" simply means "cost".
The East London Line is being extended south simply because it's
already there with relatively little work, the lines already almost
connected etc.

But not because people in Lewisham and South want to go to Dalston.

In fact a Bakerloo Line extended three miles to Lewisham or beyond
would be very very useful for getting from the south east to Oxford
Street and Paddington, at Oyster prices, without inconvenient
interchanges, but also expensive to build.

For anyone trying to get from the south east to the West End or
Paddington, buses along the Old Kent Road or Peckham Road are not a
realistic alternative to NR for that kind of journey and would not be
greatly affected.

There wouldn't be any more Bakerloo overcrowding from Elephant than
there already is from Charing Cross.

As for the DLR Dagenham branch, it makes sense to build it because it
provides direct one-change access to and from Docklands from Essex.
People living in Beckton can now commute to Shoeburyness, and people
living in Dagenham have more access to Canary Wharf. Everybody wins,
especially the District Line.

Surely both are possible? As the tunnels are halfway to Camberwell
already, it makes sense to go there, so you could have Elephant -
Walworth - Camberwell - Denmark Hill - Peckham Rye - Nunhead - Brockley
- Lewisham, then all stations to Hayes.

That would probably be a pretty overcrowded branch, and any problems
that may come from trying to create more lines on the Denmark
Hill-Lewisham axis (which is partly in a cutting, I believe).

What's more, the obvious route for the Bakerloo to take to Lewisham
would be down the Old Kent Road, which must be one of the most busiest
bus corridors in the city, with stops at Elephant-Bricklayer's
Arms-Canal Bridge-Surrey Canal Road-New Cross-St John's-Lewisham.

MIG wrote:
TheOneKEA wrote:
Dave Arquati wrote:
On the other hand, a Bakerloo extension would probably lead to increased
overcrowding on the Northern line north of the Elephant, as people make
new journeys or switch from buses and trains to the Tube for journeys to
the City.
It all depends on where most of the passengers would go. I think
extending the Bakerloo to Herne Hill and constructing a flying terminus
there would be an excellent idea, if and only if it could be shown that
most of the paseengers at Herne Hill are headed somewhere served by the
Bakerloo Line.


It's one of those situations where "cost/benefit" simply means "cost".
The East London Line is being extended south simply because it's
already there with relatively little work, the lines already almost
connected etc.

But not because people in Lewisham and South want to go to Dalston.

In fact a Bakerloo Line extended three miles to Lewisham or beyond
would be very very useful for getting from the south east to Oxford
Street and Paddington, at Oyster prices, without inconvenient
interchanges, but also expensive to build.

For anyone trying to get from the south east to the West End or
Paddington, buses along the Old Kent Road or Peckham Road are not a
realistic alternative to NR for that kind of journey and would not be
greatly affected.

There wouldn't be any more Bakerloo overcrowding from Elephant than
there already is from Charing Cross.

I was referring to *Northern* line overcrowding north of the Elephant.
If a Bakerloo extension were constructed to somewhere like Camberwell or
Lewisham, the high relative frequency of the new extension would
probably attract people away from other networks - I mentioned bus
because of the high volume of bus traffic along Walworth Road and
Camberwell Road, but it would equally apply to rail traffic from places
like Peckham.

If someone travels from Camberwell to the City then they may currently
take a bus all the way, but with a Bakerloo extension in place, they may
switch to the Tube, changing at the Elephant. Similarly, for someone
travelling from Peckham into the City, they may switch from a train-only
journey to a Tube-only journey, again changing at the Elephant, as it
might be more convenient for their journey.

The result could be worsened overcrowding on the Northern line north of
the Elephant.


--
Dave Arquati
Imperial College, SW7
www.alwaystouchout.com - Transport projects in London

wrote:
Surely both are possible? As the tunnels are halfway to Camberwell
already, it makes sense to go there, so you could have Elephant -
Walworth - Camberwell - Denmark Hill - Peckham Rye - Nunhead - Brockley
- Lewisham, then all stations to Hayes.

That would probably be a pretty overcrowded branch, and any problems
that may come from trying to create more lines on the Denmark
Hill-Lewisham axis (which is partly in a cutting, I believe).

Indeed, it is a cutting between Denmark Hill and Peckham Rye, IIRC.
Maybe if it went that way more tunnelling would be needed.

What's more, the obvious route for the Bakerloo to take to Lewisham
would be down the Old Kent Road, which must be one of the most busiest
bus corridors in the city, with stops at Elephant-Bricklayer's
Arms-Canal Bridge-Surrey Canal Road-New Cross-St John's-Lewisham.

I quite agree that's the more *obvious* route geographically. What I
was more looking at was extending the tube outwards a bit to decrease
journey times. The Old Kent Road is close enough into the centre for a
bus journey not to be a big deal, timewise, and, additionally, the
Jubilee Line is only just up on Jamaica Road.

The bus times from Denmark Hill, Peckham Rye, Nunhead & Brockley into
town are such that a tube would be a real boon to those areas, rather
than a "nice to have" as it would be for the Old Kent Road, IMHO.

Patrick

wrote:

Surely both are possible? As the tunnels are halfway to Camberwell
already, it makes sense to go there, so you could have Elephant -
Walworth - Camberwell - Denmark Hill - Peckham Rye - Nunhead - Brockley
- Lewisham, then all stations to Hayes.

Both are possible, but just being possible doesn't make something the best
option. A tunnel going half way to Camberwell is not a good reason to
extend trains there through it when there is already a railway on the
surface going all the way there and beyond!

South London is quite well supplied with railway lines, so a Bakerloo Line
extension wouldn't be as useful as a mainline loading gauge railway (which
could increase service frequency on existing lines as it would be a useful
alternative to the congested London termini).

Your suggested Bakerloo extension to Camberwell, Lewisham and Hayes
suffers from that problem. Trains with tube loading gauge would not be
able to share the Denmark Hill to Lewisham section with trains of mainline
loading gauge. That would mean more tracks would have to be built, which
would make it much costlier. It would be difficult to add more tracks to
Lewisham station itself (although the benefits of doing so would also be
high) and the Hayes Line would lose its direct service to Cannon Street.
The City is more significant on the Hayes Line than on the rest of the
South Eastern, as people going from Hayes to the West End can get there
more quickly by catching a bus to Bromley South and a fast train to
Victoria, so diverting the trains so far away from it would inconvenience
a high proportion of the passengers. Also, the Hayes Line serves Catford
station, which is very close to Catford Bridge station, which already has
trains to Nunhead, Peckham Rye, Denmark Hill and Elephant. Therefore your
plan would make things worse for many people.

Are there any other options for extending the Bakerloo via Camberwell?
It might be possible to utilize some of the old Crystal Palace High Level
trackbed in a southward Bakerloo extension beyond Camberwell that avoids
the main line, but it is difficlut to see a good reason for doing so. The
land is not very densely developed (and not a prime candidate for dense
development either) and is near a lot of parkland and open space, so you
wouldn't have enough passengers to make it worthwhile. Also, it's not
really that far from other lines. If any of that branch is ever to be
relaid, it would be best to do so as a tram line rather than a Tube line.

'Tis a similar story for other parts of South London that aren't very near
railways. With trams planned to run to Peckham and Brixton, extending
these is likely to be a more cost effective solution than building another
tube line - and there are plans for othe Central London tram lines which
may be built if CRT is successful.

That would probably be a pretty overcrowded branch, and any problems
that may come from trying to create more lines on the Denmark
Hill-Lewisham axis (which is partly in a cutting, I believe).

What's more, the obvious route for the Bakerloo to take to Lewisham
would be down the Old Kent Road, which must be one of the most busiest
bus corridors in the city, with stops at Elephant-Bricklayer's
Arms-Canal Bridge-Surrey Canal Road-New Cross-St John's-Lewisham.

If the trackbed of the Bricklayer's Arms branch had not been built over,
it would have made sense to utilize it. However, as it has, I favour the
following alignment: under Old Kent road (with two or three stations, the
last of which would be where the existing line to Peckham Rye crosses it)
then New Cross Gate, then Lewisham.

It would not have to finish at Lewisham. I think the best option is to
surface at Blackheath to give cross platform interchange, then take over
the tunnel to Charlton. Eventually I'd like to see it extended under the
river to LCY Airport, Beckton Park, and Beckton, with a further extension
to Barking initially operated by the DLR in order to build up passenger
numbers before being converted to Bakerloo Line.

--
Aidan Stanger
http://www.bettercrossrail.co.uk