kytelly wrote:
Yeah the problem with a Bakerloo extension is that it would abstract
revenue from buses and trains in the area so the sums dont stack up as
well as the (mainly) green/brownfield DLR which generates completley
new journeys with little abstraction from other public transport. (Only
exception being the line to North woolwich which will replace NR line
but I guess serving the airport tipped the balance here) However the
traffic along the Walworth road is now so bad for buses these days, I
think if the sums were run again adding in the congestion reduction
benefits we would see a better outcome.

I'm pretty sure that if they've carried out even a fairly simple
cost-benefit analysis, they'll have included congestion reduction
benefits for car and bus users, as well as abstraction of bus revenue.
It may be that the BCR is pretty good - but probably just that other
ones will be better.

Going back to bus revenue, although it will abstract bus revenue from
journeys which would have otherwise been made by bus and tube, journeys
that transfer from bus-only to tube-only will result in a net increase
in TfL revenue (because Tube fares are higher). In any case, I'm sure
that will all be included in the calculations.

Another factor is that congestion reduction won't just apply to road
journey times - there's something to be said for reducing passenger
congestion on trains from places like Denmark Hill (although to be
honest I don't know how busy those trains are).

On the other hand, a Bakerloo extension would probably lead to increased
overcrowding on the Northern line north of the Elephant, as people make
new journeys or switch from buses and trains to the Tube for journeys to
the City.

--
Dave Arquati
Imperial College, SW7
www.alwaystouchout.com - Transport projects in London