http://www.transportbriefing.co.uk/story.php?id=4878
quote
Network Rail plans for 32 Thameslink trains an hour
Filed 09/04/08

Up to 32 trains an hour will run between London and the south coast
along Thameslink routes by 2015, according to information contained
within Network Rail's newly published South London Route Utilisation
Strategy.

The RUS shows what timetable enhancements passengers can expect to see
from implementation of the £5.5bn Thameslink Programme, signed off by
the government last summer (Transport Briefing 24/07/07). It promises
new through-London services from towns including Maidstone, Tunbridge
Wells, East Grinstead and Horsham. However other places that were
expected to gain Thameslink services under the Thameslink 2000 plans
worked up by Network Rail's predecessor Railtrack, such as Dartford,
Eastbourne, Littlehampton, Ashford and Guildford, will not be included
on the new network. In order to reduce train crossovers, the current
Wimbledon loop services will no longer run through London, instead
terminating at Blackfriars.

Key Output 2 - the fully upgraded Thameslink network due to be
delivered in 2015 - will provide 18 peak time trains an hour through
London Bridge - four per hour through London to Brighton (two of which
will have limited stops), two trains per hour to East Grinstead, four
to Tonbridge with two going on to Tunbridge Wells, four to Gatwick
Airport with two going on to Horsham, and four stoppers running to
Sydenham and East Croydon. An additional six trains will run through
London via Elephant and Castle with four heading to Orpington/
Sevenoaks and two running to Maidstone. A further eight trains will
start and terminate at Blackfriars, providing four services along the
Wimbledon loop plus two running to and from Herne Hill and two heading
to Rochester in Kent.

The current proposals will deliver at least two peak trains per hour
on each Thameslink route but 10 of the routes merge, providing four
trains per hour for most stations. Two unpaired two-train-per-hour
routes are required to allow 6tph via Elephant & Castle and 18 via
London Bridge. The figure 18 has been arrived at to take full
advantage of the London Bridge/Borough Market Viaduct upgrade while
addressing bottlenecks at Herne Hill and on the Catford loop which
will not be resolved by the Thameslink project.

It is understood that timetable planners have omitted Eastbourne and
Littlehampton from the enlarged Thameslink network because it was not
feasible to run two trains per hour from these destinations. Services
via Greenwich will in future terminate at Cannon Street rather than
Charing Cross so that there is no need for them to cross over the
Thameslink tracks. South Eastern suburban routes are deemed better
suited to 20 minute service patterns than the usual 15 or 30 minute
service patterns, explaining why Dartford - which is already served by
Charing Cross, Cannon Street and Victoria trains, is no longer
included on the planned Thameslink network.

One knock-on effect of the Thameslink Programme will be a reduction in
the number of peak trains serving the Cannon Street terminus from 25
to 20 trains per hour. On delivery of Key Output 2 Cannon Street
trains will maintain their current three platforms at London Bridge
(two in the peak direction, one in the off-peak) but changes to track
at London Bridge will mean that it will no longer be possible to bring
in additional rolling stock from the Grove Park sidings via
Blackfriars. As a result, Tunbridge Wells and Paddock Wood trains that
currently terminate at Cannon Street will be converted to cross-London
Thameslink routes.

North of the capital current plans envisage 16 of the through London
services continuing up the Midland Main Line (as used by current
Thameslink trains run by First Capital Connect) while eight would
serve the East Coast Main Line routes using the new connection built
at St Pancras. Previous proposals specified 14 MML trains with 10 ECML
services. Given that the South London RUS focuses on service provision
south of the capital details of Thameslink calling patterns north of
London are not yet clear.

Meanwhile, Network Rail has acknowledged that delivery of Key Output 0
of the Thameslink Programme has slipped from December 2008 to March
2009. This percursor to main works will effectively join South Eastern
and First Capital Connect's timetables through Blackfriars and the
central London tunnels so that the Blackfriars bay platforms can be
closed to allow work on the station upgrade to commence. It will also
include the closure of the Moorgate branch line. Key Ouput 1, due to
be delivered in 2011, will add Rochester, Maidstone East, Sevenoaks,
Orpington and extra stopping services to Three Bridges to current
Thameslink destinations.
Unquote

With the transfer of the Thameslink Sutton Loop services to other
south eastern destinations – and their termination at Blackfriars will
these service continue to be part of the Thameslink franchise or would
they be better integrated into a southern franchise or even possibly
LOROL. Would a connection to the ELL be of advantage?