On Nov 26, 5:52*am, John B wrote:
On Nov 26, 12:49*pm, Robert wrote:

In view of the number of trains planned to pass westwards through the
central tunnel which will terminate at Paddington

Hmm. That's 14tph reversing in the 'official' plans - however, it'll
actually be at most 8tph.

There is no way the 4tph HEx won't go over to Crossrail, because
there'll be absolutely nobody willing to pay double the Crossrail fare
for a slightly faster journey to suburban nowhere where they have to
change, compared to a direct journey to the West End, City and Canary
Wharf.

Correct. Standalone Heathrow Express will become a nonesense post
Crossrail.

There is also no way that the 2tph Oxford stoppers won't go over to
Crossrail, since they're the only other trains using the GWML slow
lines, and by the time Crossrail opens electrification will almost
certainly exist to Oxford (and absolutely certainly to Reading, where
the slow Oxfords might temporarily become shuttles if the GWML
programme is massively behind expectations).

Electrification to Oxford sounds like a stretch to me. Reading is a
realistic target.

It's just a case of agreeing with BAA how fares and revenues will work
in the first case, and of ensuring that Reading/Oxford electrification
doesn't go on the Crossrail costs in the second.

In this economic climate do we believe the politicians/treasury will
agree to funding Electrification to Oxford. I wish, but I doubt it.

The remaining 8tph might seem like a bit of a pity at first. On the
other hand, it'll be good to open a new link with that kind of
flexibility, allowing further extensions to whichever line appears
most to need the capacity in 8-10 years' time (at the moment, the W/NW
London commuter lines don't have the same desperate need for capacity
as those in E and SE London. This may change). Taking over the H&C
west of Paddington wouldn't surprise me all that much, at least if S-
stock, ATO and the T-cup fail to solve SSL reliability/capacity
issues.

Crossrail should take over the Hammersmith branch. But there is the
question of a maintenance depot for the Circle Line. If the depot at
Hammersmith was sold off for redevelopment perhaps the funds could be
utilized for "beefing up" Neasden.